Does anyone believe?

[WildBill]

Does anyone believe, as I do, that no matter when the US troops pull out, that two things will happen.

1. All the neighbors will meddle heavily in Iraq
2. A civil war is about 99% likely.

Personally I have ZERO faith that anything our troops and "advisors" do today will prevent an inevitable war. That being said, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to start pulling some people out. The best case scenario is we start pulling people out and the rest of the Middle East and some of the Iraqi factions come racing in and ask us to "reconsider". I would bet anything as much as that whole area likes to see us retreat and lose face, they still have too much to lose by letting us cut them all loose. Why not show some creativity and accept some realities instead of throwing more resources and precious lives down the drain for something we can't prevent? At this point, do people really think that just because we want it that the three very different groups of people in Iraq and all their interested parties in neighboring countries will all just play nice and get along? Fat chance.

 

[Dweeb]

Agree 100%, Wild Bill. Don't know how old you are -- but I remember Vietnam like it was yesterday. We wasted so much money and so many lives pursuing a similar dream that could never come true.

The majority of the people in Vietnam did not want for themselves -- what idealists here wanted for them.

One thing I remember like it was yesterday: when applying for jobs in the 60's. Every single person doing the hiring was a veteran of WWII. But they could never figure out that Vietnam and WWII had nothing in common. They would always ask "why aren't you in the armed services? Don't you know we are at war?"

And I would think as I was applying for that job "you are so stupid and so clueless. 20 years from now, we are going to look back with regret at Vietnam as a huge moronic mistake."

Fast forward to 2004.
Ditto for Iraq.

Thank You

 

[Oceans11]

There is one fundamental difference.

When you got pissed off with Vietnam you simply left and let the area do whatever it wanted.

Iraq sits slap-bang in the middle of the biggest oil basket on the planet so cutting and running aint so easy.

 

[Thunder]

So let me ask this...If Saddam and his regieme were in the middle of Africa would anyone care?

Probably not....

So if we are there for the oil, why don't we just set up a little area around an oil field and just defend that with minimal but suffient troops. I don't see anything about all the injustices in other parts of the world nor do I think that we should have to police the entire planet.

We have enough problems here at home to deal with and it is sickening to listen to the news and hear how many more soldiers died cause of this dimwit in office. Don't get me wrong, I fully support our troops but they need to be brought home asap.

Not until everyone here has a job and a roof over their head should we put such time and money into an almost impossible situation that has no gurantee of staying intact.

I can't even watch television because I get sick of listening to these foulking presidential ads that have been running for the last year. Right now I would vote for anyone other than Bush.

Thanks for letting me vent....

Have a pleasant weekend...

 

[Redneckman]

Don't bitch then Thunder when the next world trade center comes tumbling down. We are trying to start a democracy in Iraq which the people there have never experienced with the belief that the fruits of democracy will spread in time throughout the Middle East, thereby choking the lifeline of the terrorists.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

awwww how idealistic redneckman, almost brings a tear to my eye.

 

[Redneckman]

get a job

 

[Marco]

Nation building is a thankless and moronic pursuit....I think civil war is highly likely for Iraq, waiting to pull out is just delaying the inevitable....

All the idealistic plans for this region will fail and turn out like the situation with Israel/Palestine...

If you're trying to make the world a safer place and prevent another 9/11, then chase the terrorists down and leave all these grandiose plans of nation building in the clouds along with the dreamers who think them up....

Time has already proven that whenever we do something to help these people out, they thank us and repay us by squeezing our balls a little bit and raising the price of oil...."Thanks" is soon followed by "Now get the fvck out", which is followed shortly by "now pay us more for our oil".......Kuwait could just as well be a part of Iraq for all I care...

 

[kayaman+]

"Don't bitch then Thunder when the next world trade center comes tumbling down. We are trying to start a democracy in Iraq which the people there have never experienced with the belief that the fruits of democracy will spread in time throughout the Middle East, thereby choking the lifeline of the terrorists."

The problem with that theory is that they will never appreciate it or love it as we do in the west because the didn't ask for it or have to fight for it.

 

[WildBill]

Redneck,

If we are so happy about Democracy here, how come half the country's adults don't vote in major elections? How come a number of young democracies fall back under the old system? Democracy is ideal, but the real task of making it work goes far beyond just saying here you go, you all have a vote. In a society where people have only feared, not trusted, politicians, do you really think votes will be clean? Of course not, here is what will happen. First couple decades, everyone will look to what is demanded by the local leaders, usually tribal people. They will follow their demands because those are the people that protect them and give jobs. After decades of that, slowly people will start to inch out and vote their conscience, not what is demanded of them. In the meantime many wars will be fought and people will be oppressed with the "legitimacy of democracy" carded around by the leaders. Look at the Kurds, they haven't a chance of winning any election without partnering with others. They could be essentially blocked out of the process and then marginalized and even oppressed with a democratic government that claims legitimacy. That is what happened in Yugoslavia and as sure as can be it will happen at some point in Iraq. For us to idealistically think Iraq will show the area how things should be is just a big case of wishful thinking. Iraq is the way Iraq is because it is simply a country that shouldn't exist as it does and has too many demons with the tribal system to change completely. Maybe a few civil servants can be elected to help, but it will never be anything like what Bush talks about, at least not in our lifetimes. But the neighbors like it that way and for that reason I say they will all meddle incessantly until some strong leader solidifies power and chases them out. Just don't think that strong leader will ever give us any respect or sympathy, and we certainly won't call the shots there either.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

Amazing how naive some people are when it comes to the notion of democracy and its ability to 'spread'. It has taken about 200+ years for democracy to 'thrive' in the West, beginning with the Magna Carta, slow separation of Church/State, English Bill of Rights (English Revolution), French Revolution, American Revolution - Englightment - Locke, Mill, Hobbes, Rosseau followed by universal suffrage and civil rights (and for more civilized nations, the abolition of the death penalty). If you pay close attention to the above themes, they are ALL Western notions. Its not a coincidence. Another interesting fact is that it was a very slow process, it didnt happen overnight, nor was it a God-given right, it was purely man made (Georgie would dispure that). One can't expect Iraqis to digest 200+ years of Western progress in a matter of months or even a few years.

 

[jimbutorac]

WildBill,

Like you, I see the place erupting in Civil War. As brutal as Saddam was, he was what kept the country together - 3 disparate factions, Shiites vs. Sunnis vs. Kurds - thru his repression.

And I think Iran will definitely meddle on behalf of the majority Shiites and I'm guessing that if Shiites take control there will be retributions against Baath party and minority Sunnis which were priveleged under saddam. Add to that tribal factionalism and I don't give Iraq much of a chance at a stable democracy.

Meanwhile, Pentagon has been told to plan on being there until 2007. So if we have about 1,000 soliders dead now and about 7,000 wounded, straight line projections give you 4,000 dead and 28,000 wounded before we're out of there.

At 80 billion dollars a year, that's another 240 billion dollars we're spending before we withdraw. All this for what?

- invading a country that had no WMDs
- invading a country that had no ties to al qaeda
- liberating the Iraqi people, the majority in poll after poll, who do not want us there.

We're just about where we were 30 years ago in Vietnam. Losing lives, limbs and money in an ultimately doomed mission.

 

[Thunder]

First off I don't believe there was enough proof to say that Iraq had anything to do with unfortunate happenings of 9-11. Still waiting for the large stockpiles of WMD to be found. All Iraq is is little Bushie wanting to be like big Bushie.

I don't believe that by putting a democracy in Iraq is going to change the thinking of terrorist through out the world. We need better intelligence and better spending of our tax dollars to get that intelligence. The government needs to stop pissing away money on foolish things and put it were it needs to go. If Iraq wanted to be a democracy bad enough they would have fought for it.

Iraq is a disaster and our grandchildrens grandchilden will be paying for it.

 

[Dweeb]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Redneckman:
Don't bitch then Thunder when the next world trade center comes tumbling down. We are trying to start a democracy in Iraq which the people there have never experienced with the belief that the fruits of democracy will spread in time throughout the Middle East, thereby choking the lifeline of the terrorists. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

It would nice to be so idealistic. Unfortunately, I live in the real world.

The connection between the various terrorist groups and Iraq under Saddam -- tenuous at best.

Here's my prediction: In 20 years, the USA will look back at IRAQ 2003-200??? much as we look back at the Vietnam war. A big mistake. We poured money and lives into a black hole -- and after we finally dragged ourselves out of that mess -- that country and surrounding areas (remember Cambodia) disintegrated into chaos. The situation will be much worse than before G-Dubya decided to interfere.

Someone forgot that SouthEast Asia was in better shape before the French and Americans screwed up what came to be called French Indo-China. Why, 50 years ago, we allowed the French to drag us into a mess that they created -- well, it is beyond me. It is deja-vu all over again.

Thank You

 

[Dweeb]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by eek:
There is one fundamental difference.

When you got pissed off with Vietnam you simply left and let the area do whatever it wanted.

Iraq sits slap-bang in the middle of the biggest oil basket on the planet so cutting and running aint so easy. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Back in those the 60's -- they also had all sorts of excuses regarding why Vietnam was essential.

One of those ridiculous excuses was the Domino Theory. If we abandoned Vietnam, then the whole world would go communist by next month.

To me, that makes as much sense as saying that I will turn gay next month because I live on Castro Street in San Francisco.

Give me a break.

If we stop getting oil from the Middle East, then maybe we can finally turn our attention to alternative renewable energy sources.

Thank You

 

[Woody0]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by A2345exxx:
It has taken about 200+ years for democracy to 'thrive' in the West, beginning with the Magna Carta... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Depends how you define "about". The Magna Carta was signed in 1215, about 800 years ago by my reckoning.

 

[Phaedrus]

You know, I wasn't going to say a word on that one ...

Phaedrus

 

[poopsicle]

For those of you who actually believe that removing a dictator and creating a total power vacuum is better, check this blog out.

http://www.riverbendblog.blogspot.com/

 

[xpanda]

This whole discussion is relies on the truth in the assumption that the US will be leaving at all. Unless and until the Middle East ceases to be of 'strategic interest' the US isn't going anywhere. You've got a base on each border and without doubt the Iraqi army will be deemed 'incompetent' or at least useless enough to need 'US assistance.' Panama, anyone?