Agreed strongly on this post. I think, to add, that watching games in baseball is a stronger tool than in CBB; I am not sure how to pinpoint it down but it may have to do with how baseball isn't exactly a "team" sport-- mainly boiling down to pitcher(s) versus batter(s), especially how they have performed the last few days/weeks respectively.
In CBB, watching the games help mostly in seeing how each team have done in recent games & what kind of style they like to play against; I do have the mentality that in CBB & NBA that a swing of several points really plays HAVOC (!!!) with spreads so it's harder to really handicap games even after watching those games already.
Disagree with half of this post. First, I agree that money management is one of top liabilities (I think it's the top liability, personally) for a bettor.
I think when people (the public) watch many national games, they naturally form opinions that the books love to salivate on because the books know they will kill the public quite a lot. But it's more of the "human nature" to remember what they just saw on TV; I would agree that this is most dangerous in NFL (less dangerous in CFB). A disciplined bettor would go past the numbers and what they saw on TV; even if they are a HOMER fan of their favorite team, because to them, a bet is a bet (or better wording, "an investment attempt is an investment attempt") regardless of the team(s) involved. I mean, I have no qualms of fading the Orioles or the Redskins if circumstances warrant; I also have no problems betting on them even if they are dogs & not expected to win some games.
* CalvinTy
I think scoreboard watching is okay in baseball....
in football, watching teams is an incredible tool that should help a lot. You get to see what points were garbage points....maybe a team had 3 turnovers negated because of penalties....or a quaterback was obviously playing hurt and screwed them over. lots of situations can happen in a game that will cause the following week's line to be inaccurate because of scoreboard watchers.
I'm sure that was an easy read...
in football, watching teams is an incredible tool that should help a lot. You get to see what points were garbage points....maybe a team had 3 turnovers negated because of penalties....or a quaterback was obviously playing hurt and screwed them over. lots of situations can happen in a game that will cause the following week's line to be inaccurate because of scoreboard watchers.
I'm sure that was an easy read...
agree about the NFL part, which was mainly what I was talking about...NBA as well. sports with sharp lines and lots of parity.
my man BW is fond of saying "NEVER have an opinion"......of course that is easy for him to say with his computer program. But dude also employs 2-3 of the top handicappers in the world, and obviously THEY have an opinion.
Must watch games. For example in college football a team can give 200 yards on the ground, we it came in a game where the opponent had to runs over 50 yards, that does not mean the defense sucks, but they just had a couple bad plays.
For example, anyone remember the Aloha bowl, if you had Hawaii, you knew had a chance to cover the spread because of the way they play the game. Even though ASU dominated the 1st qtr and was going to cover, not many team would throw the ball up 10 with 2 minutes to convert, but with Hawaii, that is part of the calculation and logic.
Not the best examples, but you know what i am saying.
For example, anyone remember the Aloha bowl, if you had Hawaii, you knew had a chance to cover the spread because of the way they play the game. Even though ASU dominated the 1st qtr and was going to cover, not many team would throw the ball up 10 with 2 minutes to convert, but with Hawaii, that is part of the calculation and logic.
Not the best examples, but you know what i am saying.
