Do you buy into the "Law of Average" theory and apply it somewhat to wagering occasionally?

[TheGeneral+]

Thanks

All feedback is appreciated.

 

[NBAlive2005]

of course.

when you see shaq hitting 10 straight free throws. (yes I saw that happened once)

you know that he'll miss 10 straight some other time to compensate for that....

you not gonna think shaq suddenly becomes a reggie miller..

 

[lander]

Not any more, but I had a few "they're due" plays when i started out (which didn't serve me well as logic would dictate)

 

[DannyMay]

Yeah,

Every time I lose my under because the game went 4 OT's I tell myself " Its OK, maybe 1 day I will have under 140 and the score will be 70-69 with 10 minutes left and the lights will go out". Oh wait, in that case it would be no action because the bet was supposed to be for 40 minutes ( 2 20 minute halfs)

 

[lander]

Danny,
That's a great point. I don't think that overtime should be included in spread or total wagering as it ofter punishes the strong capper (stereotypically taking dogs and unders that are often screwed by OT).

 

[DannyMay]

Exactly Lander. Dead on. If a time shortened game is No Action ( as it is ), then a game that goes an extra 10 minutes should also be no action.

Over bettors win at least 10 games a year that they shouldn't because of OT.

 

[theswami]

General...

I certainly do believe in reversion to the mean but rarely apply it to wagering. The long run is a lifetime and I'm not smart enough to predict the exact time when a team, a player, a roll of the dice, a roll of a ball, or a flip of a card will exhibit "average" behavior.

With that said, if the market consistently misprices events I'm certain you can make money over time by selectively applying the theory.

 

[SunDevil]

It does not exist in the context in which you wish to apply it here.

 

[DarrylParsons]

If you mean focusing on large samples of data and ignoring random short-term fluctuations, then I buy in. If you mean something else, then please clarify.

 

[JackDee]

"If you mean focusing on large samples of data and ignoring random short-term fluctuations, then I buy in. If you mean something else, then please clarify."

well said, i agree with darryl here, anyone with any basic knowldge of statistics knows that there might not be a law of averages, but there sure is something known as regression to the mean, which i for once always make a note to take it into account, if the bookmakers don't, which they usually do, or if most punters dont which they usually don't...

 

[gamblingislife]

If you bet a team because they are either due or it's a must win game then more times than not you'll lose. I knew a guy who used to always say they are due and he doesn't gamble anymore and it's not because he won.

 

[Murphy8276]

I think law of averages applies to betting styles.. but doing it based on specific teams is a dangerous bridge to cross....

-murph

 

[Shub]

The heat are due

 

[Stylez]

The heat are due

They were a pierce 3 away last night

 

[5teamparlay]

The trend is your friend - dont try to fight it.


Dont go betting Cubs WS futures either, they are not due any time soon.