The consensus neither loses enough or wins enough to use as a guage on the direction you need to pick. I'm not sure how to simplify the statement than to say, "Don't follow the consensus in general as it is no measure of a good or bad pick at all."
In fact, I disagree with Dante a little here in that if the consensus is usually wrong then I could consistently choose against it and fair well. However, in my experience it is no measure of the quality of the play at all. Stay away from using that as your criterion. I wouldn't avoid playing a 'consensus' play if I have other reasons to make that pick. But that is just my humble opinion. tulsa