Do point spread movements mean anything?

[composite]

I noticed that the Mich/ND line went from an opening line of ND -4 to Mich -2. The line moved even though there were no obvious circumstantial changes (i.e. starting QB's out, etc.) for either team.

Do pointspread swings mean anything?

Has anyone every studied pointspread swings to see if the public is correct? Do games where the pointspread moves considerably have a greater chance of winning?

For example, if I bet Michigan +4 @ the opening line, does it have a better chance of winning if the closing line is Michigan -1?

Conversely, if the closing line moved to Michigan +10, does the Michigan +4 bet have a smaller chance of winning?

 

[Anastasius4]

it depends who is responsible for making the line 5000 bad bets , or one smart one:wink:

 

[FairWarning]

I usually follow the very early and very late moves as good moves. If there are moves now, it could be the release of many of the tout sheets.

Actually Michigan dropped to a pick, now back to -2. Already took ND at a pick, but if it gets to 3, I will take some more ND.

 

[composite]

I usually follow the very early and very late moves as good moves. If there are moves now, it could be the release of many of the tout sheets.

Actually Michigan dropped to a pick, now back to -2. Already took ND at a pick, but if it gets to 3, I will take some more ND.

According to vegasinsider.com, Notre Dame (not Michigan) opened at -4. It went to pick, then all the way to Michigan -2. That's a HUGE swing.

 

[FairWarning]

According to vegasinsider.com, Notre Dame (not Michigan) opened at -4. It went to pick, then all the way to Michigan -2. That's a HUGE swing.

Across the street, someone posted a screen shot of the early line Mich -2.5 on Sunday.

 

[composite]

Across the street, someone posted a screen shot of the early line Mich -2.5 on Sunday.

<shrug>. Then use USC -7.5 to 11 as an example. Anyway, I'm more curious of the concept of whether pointspread movements matter.

 

[KidKash]

i say yes, they matter

 

[Jlip9]

You need to also look at where the money is. When you reference where the money is with the line swing, you can get a good idea as to where vegas stands on a particular game.

 

[bigbookie]

I am gettin all michigan so far

 

[Betsmart]

Is there a place you can see where the money is wagered?

 

[bbkline]

Sometimes they are good...streaky. Always try to get best lines.

 

[OTK]

Yes they matter. The biggest line movements I look for is when the majority of the public is on one team and the line moves the opposite way. Reverse line movement has absolutely nothing to do with the game, but if you follow it and play those games you will win much, much more often than not. It holds especially true in college basketball I find.

 

[composite]

I am gettin all michigan so far

Are you, in effect, "betting" that ND will cover? Is there anything you do to offset that action (such as place a bet w/ LV on Michigan)?

And, do you win or lose more when the "public" bets heavily on one side? Or is it 50/50?

 

[Strick]

Yes they matter. The biggest line movements I look for is when the majority of the public is on one team and the line moves the opposite way. Reverse line movement has absolutely nothing to do with the game, but if you follow it and play those games you will win much, much more often than not. It holds especially true in college basketball I find.

I cant resist playing a game when this happens in cbb.:toast:

 

[StopDropampLOL]

Yes they matter. The biggest line movements I look for is when the majority of the public is on one team and the line moves the opposite way. Reverse line movement has absolutely nothing to do with the game, but if you follow it and play those games you will win much, much more often than not. It holds especially true in college basketball I find.

what site do you use to determine this?

 

[bullets]

Line moves are everything.

If bettors would realize that wagering on games have nothing to do with what teams are playing.....they would make money.

 

[hiphop22]

Line moves are everything.

If bettors would realize that wagering on games have nothing to do with what teams are playing.....they would make money.

Hard lesson to learn, but true! A lot of statement in few words.

 

[Jlip9]

what site do you use to determine this?

I use covers.com or sportsbook. Both are pretty good.

 

[Jlip9]

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/trends.php?sportName=ncaaf

 

[BigPIG19]

For example, if I bet Michigan +4 @ the opening line, does it have a better chance of winning if the closing line is Michigan -1?


Seriously. of course a team +4 has a better chance of covering than if they were laying 1