DJax's 2009 MLB Picks - Season Thread

[DJax24]

YTD: 8-2, +8.25 units (I did two daily threads before deciding this was smarter)

Hey guys, I'm pretty new here so I don't expect a lot of attention or anything to this thread BUT just in case some are interested (or hopefully become interested as the season progresses), I just want to say a few things about my thread.

1. This is pretty much for my own tracking purposes...but I welcome any kind of questions/comments/suggestions or especially just good baseball conversation so feel free to post anything relevant, doesnt hafta be strictly me posting my picks and without any interaction in here.

2. All picks will be 1 unit plays unless otherwise stated. But I won't vary my picks based on confidence level, I'll only change them because I feel like I've made enough $$ so far that it's time to risk a little bit more per pick in the long run. Basically, unit changes will be very rare. I don't see that happening anytime soon, maybe if I keep hitting 80% for a couple months :lol:

***Example of units: If -140 odds, risk 1.4 units to win 1.0 units BUT if +140 odds, risk 1.0 unit to win 1.4 units***


That's pretty much it, lets see how it goes! My first picks in this Official Season-Long Thread will be:

Runlines
White Sox -1.5 (+140)
Rangers -1.5 (+170)

Moneylines
Reds +100
Oakland +103

These are the lines I got about an hour ago, I hope they havent changed much...they should be accurate. Anyway, if anybody has noticed my previous picks and is wondering why its generally all the same teams its b/c: I wanted to try a plan for beginning of the season in which I follow a few teams I felt were going to be underrated by public/Vegas and fade a few that I expected to be overrated by public/Vegas. So far it's worked, but who knows, that may mean I'm due for a setback.

Keeping my fingers crossed...GL to everyone tomorrow!
:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:

 

[DJax24]

Guys, just wanted to say RIP to Nick Adenhart and the others involved in that car accident last night. (<)< Very sad story, thoughts and prayers go out to the families.


On a side not, that may scratch one of my games tonight if they decide to cancel it. But let's not worry about that. Very miniscule detail in relation to the entire story...

 

[DJax24]

Not a bad day, damn White Sox seem to be the weak link thus far but I'll stick with them and look for their offense to finally wake up. Only ended up with 3 games today due to the tragedy in Anaheim...I'll be back tonight with picks for tomorrow, but for now here's the summary:

Runlines
White Sox -1.5 (+140) LOSS -1.0 unit
Rangers -1.5 (+170) WIN +1.7 units

Moneylines
Reds +100 WINNER +1.0 unit
Oakland +103 PPD

Daily Total = 2-1, +1.7 units

YTD 10-3, +9.95 units


Four straight winning days for me (including Monday which I didn't post) so my plan has worked so far...moving onto new series will be the big step. Very interested to see how it continues @)

Marlins, Reds, White Sox, Red Sox, Blue Jays*, Dodgers are the teams I'll be on (99.9% sure), for anyone interested. GL ALL, have a profitable night!

 

[DJax24]

Nothing official yet for Friday. I pretty much have the teams all lined up but have a feeling the lines will move in my favor on a few of them, plus determining which to take RL and which to take ML still. I may hold off until morning, we'll see how late I decide to stay up haha

GL with your plays, everybody

 

[DJax24]

I'm heading to bed but on the small chance that anyone is intrested, the teams I will be playing tomorrow are:

Marlins
Reds
White Sox
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Dodgers

I havent determines which will be RL or ML as I'm waiting on tomorrow mornings updated lines, expecting (at least hoping)for improvements on a few of 'em. We'll see...I'll have them all posted well before the games start.

 

[kingking]

Nice work, thanks for sharing! And goodluck! :toast:

 

[PatsFanatic]

Nice start to the season DJax!


Gl the rest of the way! I'll be @)

 

[DJax24]

Thanks PatsFan...love the name and the avatar. Two of my favorite things in the world: The Patriots and South Park! haha

I hope I can keep it up, today's gonna be a big day. I'll have my picks up shortly I think (nothing til 4 anyway)

GL today man

 

[DJax24]

YTD: 10-3, +9.95 Units

OK boys, here we go with Friday's slate:

All 1 Unit plays...

Runlines

Reds -1.5 (+120)
ChiSox -1.5 (+130)
Dodgers -1.5 (+160)

Moneylines

Marlins +110
Blue Jays +138
Red Sox -105

Let's see how it goes. A good day today, and especially a good weekend, would really make me believe I'm onto something here. VERY excited to see how it turns out and hoping I'll still be as excited in about 12 hours on my recap LOL

GL to everyone, bring home the cash :toast:

 

[DJax24]

Runlines

Reds -1.5 (+120) PPD (rainout)
ChiSox -1.5 (+130) LOSER -1 Unit
Dodgers -1.5 (+160) LOSER -1 Unit

Moneylines

Marlins +110 WINNER +1.1 Units
Blue Jays +138 WINNER +1.38 Units
Red Sox -105 LOSER -1 Unit

Total for the day: 2-3, -0.52 Units

YTD: 12-6, +9.43 Units

I was dissapointed with the results, all three losers really rolled over and died tonight and one of my more confident plays got rained out unfortunately. Luckily that Jays game didn't get washed out as well, it helped me save face. Overall, though unhappy with first negative day of the season, I can't complain with only 0.5 Unit loss when it seemed like a lot worse. Hopefully, the teams that got smashed tonight will be extra motivated tomorrow...I'm going to be on all the same teams this weekend(except possibly Chicago, need to look closer) so lets just get it back tomorrow.

Hope everyone had a profitable night and I'll have my Saturday picks up very shortly.

 

[DJax24]

Today's picks (All 1 Unit):

Runlines

Reds -1.5 (+160)
Florida -1.5 (+140)

Moneylines

Blue Jays -127
White Sox +107
Red Sox +107
Dodgers +110

Feels like a good day to me. Hopefully they all come through

GL All

 

[DJax24]

Adding this, even though its only half MLB I'm going to count it in here because I don't track Golf picks:

Parlay for 1 Unit (pays 2.36 Units): Tiger Woods over Phil Mickelson -190 (Saturday 18 holes)/Cubs -1.5 (+120)

 

[Ilovetobet]

GL I am with you on all your picks!

 

[DJax24]

Thank you sir, I liked these lines a lot better today than yesterday so hopefully I'm right. Unfortunately, looks like the Reds arent going to get it done today but if the Jays hold on, we can call it a draw and move on to the last four games at dead even on the early games.

GL to you as well

 

[DJax24]

Got the first part of the Tiger Woods/Cubs RL parlay thanks to Phil playing a poor back nine (as expected). Hopefully Cubs finish it off...if they do then thanks to MisterMJ for leading me to them! <><>

 

[seanm0520]

GL tonight!

 

[DJax24]

Thanks sean...hoping both Sox teams can hang on here and send me into the evening with a nice cushion!

GL to you too man

 

[DJax24]

Little drunk so not much to say right now but it wasnt a bad night, couldve been a lot better had Cubs or Marlins been able to do what we needed BUT overall can never complain about a + night. My out-of-system parlay hurt today so I'll have to stay mor disciplined but reallly it wasnt a bad shot as you cant get any closer to winning than it did (Cubs missed by 1 run). Hope everyone had a good night...heres my summary:

Runlines

Reds -1.5 (+160) LOSER -1 Units
Florida -1.5 (+140) LOSER -1 Units

Moneylines

Blue Jays -127 WINNER +1 Units
White Sox +107 WINNER +1.07 Units
Red Sox +107 WINNER +1.07 Units
Dodgers +110 WINNER +1.1 Units

Parlay of Tiger Woods/Cubs-1.5 LOSER -1 Unit


Daily total: 4-3, +1.24

YTD: 16-9, +10.67 Units

Tomorrow's picks will be up prior to the first game any of my relevant teams play, likely well before 1 pm, but depends when I wake up. hno:

 

[DJax24]

Today's picks (All 1 Unit):

Runlines

Reds -1.5 (+120)
White Sox -1.5 (+140)
Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

Moneylines

Marlins +127
Dodgers +138
Blue Jays +127

Don't have time to say too much but I LOVE these lines today much better than the last couple days (which still yielded a small overall gain). Hopefully we can get 5 outta 6 and be celebrating tonight. Happy Easter! (<)<

 

[DJax24]

Runlines

Reds -1.5 (+120) WINNER +1.2 Units
White Sox -1.5 (+140) WINNER +1.4 Units
Red Sox -1.5 (-105) LOSER -1.05 Units

Moneylines

Marlins +127 WINNER +1.27 Units
Dodgers +138 WINNER +1.38 Units
Blue Jays +127 LOSER -1.0 Units

Daily Total: 4-2, +3.2 Units


YTD (Week 1 Total): 20-11, +13.87 Units

Very excited about the day and strong finish to Week 1. Even more excited because I see no reason to change the teams at all yet. I was hoping I would be able to ride/fade the same teams for as long as possible (at least a few weeks) but I was going to be realistic and make changes if necessary week-by-week. Even though some teams overachieved/underachieved to the benefit of this "system", I don't think it will change the overall public opinion/Vegas lines on these teams at this point in year. GL to everyone, lets go for another solid week this week!

:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast: