DJax24's NBA First Round East/West Chasing of Home Favorite

[DJax24]

Hey guys, had been thinking bout betting alot of home favorites in the playoffs for awhile now, especially out West...and after reading a few ideas yesterday I've decided to do an official chase system on the first round of NBA playoffs based on that premise. Here's how it will work:

1. To split up the risk a bit, I'm going to have two different "chases" going on at once. This is mostly due to avoiding the possibility of a completely disastrous 0-4 type of day (0-2 + 0-2 will lose roughly 50% of what 0-4 in one "chase" line would lose). Also, the other factor is purely a personal issue: its for my own convenience because theres really no days of 3+ games in one conference and this way I can do "if-bets" much easier if I know I won't be around the computer at particular times.

2. I will be trying to win 0.5 units in each set. For example, I'm starting with Boston -8 tomorrow afternoon for 0.55 Unit (to win 0.5 unit). Should the Celts win, I'll continue with 0.55 (to win 0.5 unit) on Cleveland -12. However, if they lose, I add the 0.55 lost to the 0.5 I want to win and multiply by 1.1 (for the juice), which gives us 1.155 Units on the Cavs -12(1.05 * 1.1). If we lost again, then Orlando -9.5 would be the next pick in the set for approx 2.4 Units (feel free to check my math, doing it quick right now). I'll be using the exact same formula for the West, starting with the Spurs -4 tomorrow and continuing with Blazers, Lakers, etc....

So, for now we have 2 bets tomorrow and underneath them I will post the next bet in each set, so we can plan ahead if we must.

East picks

East Game 1: Boston Celtics -8 (risk 0.55 Units)
Next pick will be: Cavs -12 (risk 0.55 Units IF "East Game 1" wins above, risk 1.155 Units if it loses)


West picks

West Game 1: San Antonio Spurs -4 (risk 0.55 Units)
Next pick will be: Portland -4 (risk 0.55 Units IF "West Game 1" wins above, risk 1.155 Units if it loses)


I don't think this should be too hard to understand, as almost everyone knows the basic chase philosophy. Questions are welcomed however, and I'll do my best to answer them. We'll see how this works out, there's a reason I'm starting pretty small, to be safe of course, but I think we should rack up the units pretty quickly and give us some cash to hammer down on the Celts series line in the second rd :lol:

GL all! :toast:

 

[HacheMan]

Best of luck DJ.....:toast:

 

[DJax24]

Best of luck DJ.....:toast:

Thanks Hache...I hope I don't need too much of it or I might be in trouble lol

I'm a little nervous, yet excited to get going, because it not my usual type of play at all. That being said, I'm definitely going to do it in a rather conservative way by starting with low units and calling it quits pretty early on if it gets ugly. I put a lot of thought into it though and just came out convinced that home favorites had good value in this first round...we'll see how it works @)

I tailed you on Spurs -140 for series as well :toast:

GL

 

[kingking]

sounds cool to me. thanks for the great explanation, best of luck with this!

 

[DJax24]

sounds cool to me. thanks for the great explanation, best of luck with this!

Thanks kingking! I hope it works out because I wasnt looking to get TOO risky and blow recent baseball profits on NBA in this way...but I figure if it starts bad first rd, I'm risking small units to start wth and I can call it quits and get it back in later rounds following some of the great cappers on here. But I also don't anticipate getting into any trouble with this either, so we'll see lol

GL to you as well :toast:

 

[DJax24]

Sorry, its too late to explain this after the first game but I forgot to mention this...

In situations where one game starts before the other ends, I'm placing offsetting conditional bets.

*Example (this case): Bet the lowest amount the book allows on the first half of an "IF" bet on Celts -8 with the second part being Cavs -12 for $27.50. Then bet lowest amount allowed on an "IF" bet of Bulls +8, with the second part being Cavs -12 for $57.75. This will result in about $1 lost to juice but to most people at least, thats not a big deal if you have to do it a couple of times.

Basically, I have the Cavs -12 for either $27.50 or $57.75, depending on the outcome of the Celts/Bulls game. Let me know if theres questions...sorry for confusion, but I just want to make sure I dont get a bunch of questions about how I placed the Cavs bet when Celts wasnt finished.

GL everyone:toast:

 

[DJax24]

Guys sorry about the $27.50 and $57.75 stuff I used in the last post...just meant 0.55 Units and 1.155 Units. That was how I explained it to somebody else who happened to start with $25 as his starting unit amount and I just pretty much pasted the same explanation there hno:

So anyway, here's how it ended up:

East picks

East Game 1: Boston Celtics -8 LOST 0.55 Units
East Game 2: Cleveland Cavs -12 (Risking 1.155 Units)

GL guys, lets get this cover Cavs! :toast:

 

[DeezNuts]

are you continuing with this? Seems like it has worked so far.

 

[DJax24]

Ya I have been doing it on my own. I just stopped posting about it, wasnt sure if people were interested and was really more focused on MLB where I've had success lately. The main problem has been games starting before the previous one ends and wasnt sure if people were following along with my method for that. Sorry, if you were interested. I'll post results for so far and I'll stay on it the rest of the week.
Sorry for the delay:

East picks

East Game 1: Boston Celtics -8 LOST 0.55 Units
East Game 2: Cleveland Cavs -12 WIN 1.05 Units
Result of East Games 1&2 = +0.5 Unit

Now we started over with a new set of East games:

East Game 3: Orlando Magic -9.5 LOST 0.55 Units
East Game 4 : Atlanta Hawks -4.5 RISK 1.155 Units



West picks

West Game 1: San Antonio Spurs -4 LOST 0.55 Units
West Game 2: Portland TrailBlazers -4 LOST 1.155 Units
West Game 3: LA Lakers -11.5 WIN 2.205 Units (risked 2.4255 Units)** This is the one I forgot to post, very sorry guys...hopefully those interested were able to figure out the method and the math
Result of Games West Games 1-3 = +0.5 Units

On to the next set for the West...

West Game 4: Denver Nuggets -6 RISK 0.55 Units (to win 0.5)


RECAP:

East Set 1 = 1-1, +0.5 Units
East Set 2 = 0-1, pending

West Set 1 = 1-2, +0.5 Units


Let me know if theres questions or mistakes, I did this real quick to get it out before the next game starts. GL all :toast:

 

[DJax24]

Ya I'm an idiot the Hawks game started already anyway. My bad guys, I hope everyone was able to follow on their own today...I've been distracted.

GL

 

[DeezNuts]

no problem man, just curious if you were still at it or if you were thinking there was too much risk after yesterday's western conference plays.

 

[DJax24]

Ya I was going to stop after Lakers lost I think. I was on the fence about continuing for one more if they lost, but most likely I wouldve stopped and just followed a few people to try get back to even. Theres no sense in risking too much because I don't want to waste it so early on in playoffs especially. But since it won, I'm planning on doing it throughout the round if I can.

Looks very solid suddenly. Thats wats funny about the method...you just gotta avoid 3 straight losses and it can turn a bad record into good money results sometimes.

GL to you

And if anyones following along...it looks right now like we're moving towards a perfect record thru 3 sets (+1.5 Units total in my case). :toast:

Nuggets -6 is the next play...refer to my previous post for a Recap and I'll do another one at the end of each night.

 

[DJax24]

Sets are now 3-0 = +1.5 Units total


Denver Nuggets -6 for 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units) starts the next set (West Set 2)


Boston Celtics -8 for 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units) will be the first game of East Set 3


GL All

 

[DJax24]

Overall "Sets": 4-0, +2.0 Units

East Set 1(W): 1-1, +0.5 units
East Set 2(W): 1-1, +0.5 Units

West Set 1(W): 1-2, +0.5 Units
West Set 2(W): 1-0, +0.5 Units


Bets for Monday 4/20:

East Set 3 (Game 1): Boston Celtics -8 RISK 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units)

West Set 3 (Game 1): San Antonio Spurs -6 RISK 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units)


GL everyone, hopefully it keeps up! :toast:

 

[DJax24]

Overall "Sets": 4-0, +2.0 Units

East Set 1(W): 1-1, +0.5 units
East Set 2(W): 1-1, +0.5 Units

West Set 1(W): 1-2, +0.5 Units
West Set 2(W): 1-0, +0.5 Units


Bets for Monday 4/20:

East Set 3 (Game 1): Boston Celtics -8 RISK 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units)

West Set 3 (Game 1): San Antonio Spurs -6 RISK 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units)


GL everyone, hopefully it keeps up! :toast:

Seems to be working still...would be nice to have the Cavs dominate tomorrow and clear that set up before it gets too dangerous, but lets just see what happens. We still have at least 2 shots at it before it becomes too problematic. As I predicted, the West has been a more successful so far but theres a lot of games left.



Overall Record for Completed "Sets": 5-0, +2.5 Units

East Set 1(W): 1-1, +0.5 units
East Set 2(W): 1-1, +0.5 Units

West Set 1(W): 1-2, +0.5 Units
West Set 2(W): 1-0, +0.5 Units
West Set 3(W): 1-0, +0.5 Units

Next Picks are:

East Set 3 (Game 2): Cleveland Cavaliers -11 RISK 1.155 Units

West Set 4 (Game 1): Portland TrailBlazers -5.5 RISK 0.55 Units (to win 0.5 Units)

The next West bet will be LA Lakers -11.5. It will either be Game 2 of West Set 4 or it will be Game 1 of West Set 5, depending on the result of the Blazers/Rockets game. Obviously, it will start before the prior game ends (10:00 and 10:30 gametimes) so I'm going to place two conditional bets for the minimum amount, that will give me 0.55 Units risked on Lakers if Portland ends up winning and 1.155 Units on Lakers if Portland ends up losing. *You'll lose about a dollar to juice using this method, but that shouldnt be a problem for most people*

GL all :toast:

 

[DJax24]

Tonight's picks were:

East Set 3 (Game 2): Cleveland Cavaliers -11 WON

West Set 4 (Game 1): Portland TrailBlazers -5.5 LOST 0.55 Units
West Set 4 (Game 2): LA Lakers -11.5 LOST 1.155 Units

Things have worked so far and this doesnt fall into my original plan BUT I'm calling West Set 4 as a LOSS and just gonna eat the loss. If you were following the chase system, you should probably keep going but I personally dont feel very lucky and optimistic after the way tonight went for me overall. Very tough night in MLB bets (worst two days of the season back-to-back) followed up by 2 close and disappointing losses out West in NBA tonight so I'm just not feeling optimistic enough to want to risk 2.4 Units (approx) on Denver tomorrow. Calling it quits isnt so bad since so far we still gained money using this method. If you want to continue, I think it makes more sense to do so but my personal preference for the moment is to lay off and explore other options and/or strategies. GL guys!

Overall Record for Completed "Sets": 6-1, +1.3 Units

East Set 1(W): 1-1, +0.5 units
East Set 2(W): 1-1, +0.5 Units
East Set 3(W): 1-1, +0.5 Units

West Set 1(W): 1-2, +0.5 Units
West Set 2(W): 1-0, +0.5 Units
West Set 3(W): 1-0, +0.5 Units
West Set 4(L): 0-2, -1.70 Units