Divisional Round Trends

[smallmouth_bass]

In the past 20 years favorites have only covered 42% ATS

Number one seeds are just 35% ATS

Favorites under 10 points are just 10 and 25 against the spread

 

[doctorsuccess]

Damn. Give me Kansas City.

 

[ozzy44]

I thought i could add to your trends ...

Divisional Round NFL Trend Report​

— Last 11 times an NFL playoff game had a double-digit spread, the favorite went 10-1 ATS.

The trend: The Texans have gone Under the first-half total in all eight of their road games this season

The trend: 11 of San Francisco’s 12 wins this season were by double-digits

The trend: The Bucs are 8-1 ATS on the road this season

The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 16 of 18 games this season

NFL Divisional Round Early Odds, Picks & Trends​

Texans @ Ravens – Saturday, Jan. 20 – 4:30 p.m. EST​

Current Consensus Lines – BAL -9; O/U 43.5

Texans trends:

• 6-5 ATS; 6-5 to the Over in all playoff games since 2012
• Previous 4 road playoff games: 1-3 ATS; 3-1 to the Over
• Previous 6 playoff games as an underdog: 2-4 ATS; 4-2 to the Over
• Previous 6 games with rest disadvantage: 1-5 ATS
• Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS
• Previous 16 games following a win: 7-9 ATS
• Previous 20 road games: 12-7-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
• Previous 30 games: 19-11 to the Under
• Previous 30 games as an underdog: 17-12-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
• Previous 34 non-divisional games: 14-19-1 ATS
• Previous 37 conference games: 21-16 ATS
• CJ Stroud as an underdog (Career): 6-3 ATS
• DeMeco Ryans as an underdog (Career): 7-4 ATS

Ravens trends:

• Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 3-5 ATS
• Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 ATS
• Previous 10 home playoff games: 8-2 to the Under
• Previous 10 playoff games as a favorite: 6-4 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
• Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
• Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
• Previous 20 games following a BYE: 12-8 ATS
• Previous 20 home games: 8-11-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
• Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
• Previous 30 games as a favorite: 21-9 to the Under
• Previous 33 non-divisional games: 19-13-1 ATS
• Lamar Jackson as a favorite (Career): 31-33 ATS
• John Harbaugh as a favorite (Career): 86-88-5 ATS

C.J. Stroud and the Texans just dismantled the Browns as home underdogs in the Wild Card round, picking up some much-needed playoff experience as a young team with a rookie QB and first-year head coach.

One seeds have typically not fared well as favorites coming out of the first-round bye, going just 35% ATS over the past 20 years, and I think the Ravens join that group this week. Add in the fact that Lamar Jackson has not been profitable as a large favorite over his career, and I think this number is too steep.

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Packers @ 49ers – Saturday, Jan. 20 – 8:15 p.m. EST​

Current Consensus Lines – SF -9.5; O/U 50.5

Packers trends:

• Previous 10 playoff games as an underdog: 6-3-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Over
• Previous 10 road playoff games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Over
• Previous 12 games with rest disadvantage: 8-4 ATS
• Previous 20 playoff games: 12-7-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
• Previous 10 games: 6-4 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
• Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
• Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS
• Previous 30 games as an underdog: 19-11 ATS
• Previous 30 games following a win: 19-11 ATS
• Previous 35 conference games: 23-15 ATS
• Jordan Love as an underdog (Career): 8-4 ATS
• Matt LaFleur as an underdog (Career): 20-8 ATS
• Previous 35 non-divisional games: 19-16 ATS

49ers trends:

• Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
• Previous 10 home playoff games: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
• Previous 10 playoff games as a favorite: 7-2-1 ATS
• Previous 10 games following a BYE: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
• Previous 12 games with rest advantage: 8-4 ATS
• Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS
• Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 ATS
• Previous 30 home games: 17-13 to the Over
• Previous 30 games: 18-12 ATS; 18-11-1 to the Over
• Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 18-12 ATS; 16-13-1 to the Over
• Previous 37 non-divisional games: 21-16 ATS
• Previous 42 conference games: 28-14 ATS
• Brock Purdy as a favorite (Career): 17-7 ATS
• Kyle Shanahan as a favorite (Career): 34-36-1 ATS

You could copy and paste nearly everything I wrote in the Texans-Ravens game, as the parallels are uncanny. Green Bay’s young roster picked up great experience in a beatdown of the Cowboys in Dallas, and Jordan Love has legitimately been one of the best QBs in the NFL down the stretch.

Kyle Shanahan has not been great as a favorite, while Matt LaFleur has been extremely profitable as an underdog. The 49ers qualify for the 35% ATS rate for one seeds coming off of a first-round bye.

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Buccaneers @ Lions – Sunday, Jan. 21 – 3:00 p.m. EST​

Current Consensus Lines – DET -7; O/U 47

Buccaneers trends:

• Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 to the Under
• Previous 10 playoff games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
• Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
• Previous 10 road games: 8-2 ATS
• Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 6-4 ATS
• Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
• Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 11-7-2 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
• Previous 30 road games: 17-13 to the Under
• Previous 31 games following a win: 17-14 ATS
• Baker Mayfield as an underdog (Career): 23-22 ATS
• Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 25-30-3 ATS

Lions trends:

• 1-3 ATS; 4-1 to the Under in playoff games since 2000
• 0-3 ATS; 2-1 to the Over in all playoff games as a favorite
• Previous 11 games with rest advantage: 9-2 ATS
• Previous 22 games following a win: 14-8 ATS
• Previous 30 games: 21-9 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
• Previous 30 home games: 21-9 ATS; 19-11 to the Over
• Previous 30 games as a favorite: 18-12 ATS; 20-10 to the Over
• Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 18-12 ATS; 21-9 to the Over
• Previous 34 non-divisional games: 22-12 ATS
• Previous 37 conference games: 25-12 ATS
• Jared Goff as a favorite (Career): 39-30-3 ATS
• Dan Campbell as a favorite (Career): 13-9-1 ATS

Tampa Bay was gifted a decrepit Eagles team in the first round, who were dealing with massive injuries on both sides of the ball and frankly looked like they were ready to hop on the plane to Cancun.

They now travel to Detroit, who got the monkey off their back and picked up their first playoff win in forever in front of their raucous home crowd on Saturday night. They now get to stay at home (ball don’t lie, Dallas), and I believe they’ll play with much less pressure as decisive favorites this week.

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Chiefs @ Bills – Sunday, Jan. 21 – 6:30 p.m. EST​

Current Consensus Lines – BUF -3; O/U 45.5

Chiefs trends:

• Previous 9 road playoff games: 3-6 ATS; 5-3-1 to the Over
• Previous 9 playoff games as an underdog: 3-6 ATS; 5-3-1 to the Over
• Previous 13 games with rest advantage: 7-6 ATS
• Previous 20 playoff games: 11-9 ATS; 11-9 to the Under
• Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-6-1 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
• Previous 30 games: 19-11 to the Under
• Previous 30 road games: 20-10 to the Over
• Previous 30 games as an underdog: 19-10-1 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Over
• Previous 41 games following a win: 19-21-1 ATS
• Previous 42 conference games: 18-23-1 ATS
• Patrick Mahomes as an underdog (Career): 7-1-1 ATS
• Andy Reid as an underdog (Career): 49-36-2 ATS

Bills trends:

• Previous 9 playoff games as a favorite: 6-3 ATS; 6-3 to the Over
• Previous 9 home playoff games: 6-3 ATS; 7-2 to the Over
• Previous 10 playoff games: 4-6 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
• Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
• Previous 11 games with rest disadvantage: 7-4 ATS
• Previous 30 games: 13-16-1 ATS; 19-11 to the Under
• Previous 30 home games 16-12-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
• Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 17-13 to the Under
• Previous 37 games following a win: 17-19-1 ATS
• Josh Allen as a favorite (Career): 33-30-3 ATS
• Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 38-31-4 ATS

This is not the Chiefs team of years prior, and the Bills have adopted a much more run-heavy philosophy down the stretch. I think this game looks extremely similar to the Dolphins-Chiefs game in the opening round, which fell comfortably under the total.

 

[doctorsuccess]

Damn. Give me Kansas City.

Easy money.

 

[smallmouth_bass]

I was all over it. Bills defense struggled big time. It is hard overcoming all the injuries on a short week.

Congrats

 

[Kaboom]

My kind of thread ... wish I saw this one earlier

BOL

 

[smallmouth_bass]

My kind of thread ... wish I saw this one earlier

BOL

I read you every day Kaboom. I like your style too. i love using certain teams in ML wagers based on the situation. Keep posting! I followed you three times last week.