Divisional Round Picks from Chonce

[chonce]

Playoffs to date: 5-2 + 8.7 units

4 unit bets: 1-0 +4.0 units
3 unit bets: n/a
2 unit bets: 4-1 +4.8 units
1 unit bets: 0-1 -1.1 unit

Good wild card week, highlighted by Saturday when I hit a 4 unit play on KC and then hit a middle: Cin +3 (-120) and Ptt ML (-130) for a total of 4 units. I am 1-1 on totals and 4-1 on sides. 2-0 when on underdogs and 1-1 on favorites (though Wash was only -115 on the FH ML).

Anyway two early plays

Carolina -2.5 2 units (-120)
NE -5 2 units (-110)

I am betting these early because I fear NE could hit a key number in 6 and the Panthers in 3. I could be wrong though.

I have long write-ups coming, but quick rationale is the following. For Carolina: They are 15-1, at home and have the likely MVP only laying 2.5 points. The Panthers have been undervalued all year. Meanwhile SEA looked pedestrian in Minn and are lucky to win. They have been traveling a lot.

As for NE. KC is 27th in the league in yards, but among the best in points. The reason? Turnovers? But the Pat's are among the best at avoiding turnovers. Brady's INT-TD ratio is excellent this year and the team fumbles less than anyone (even with properly inflated balls, which helps show how stupid that article was). The Pat's last practice had everyone on deck except Ebner, so all these huge injuries that hurt them down the stretch: Jones, Edelman, Hightower, Collins, Amendola, Gronk, Vollmer etc... are all practicing in full and ready to go. The only player out is 4th string safety and special teamer Nate Ebner. Meanwhile KC has Maclin with a high ankle sprain who is unlikely to play and unlikely to play well if he does. Outside of him, KC have few offensive weapons and would've been even less than 27th in total yards.

I am getting value that says the Pats are only 2 points better on a neutral field and, absurdly, saying that the Panthers are underdogs on a neutral field.

 

[cashducats]

Agree with panthers fully.

Im leaning kc in this game but still undecided. The reason for me is the question as to whether ne can suddenly switch it on. Wouldn't surprise me if they could but also wouldn't surprise me if they couldn't. Ne has a way of winning playoff games and Super Bowls but not covering the spread. I can easily see a 3 or 4 pt be win.

This is is he reason I lean kc but wouldn't touch the moneyline. Still thinking about this one...

 

[bradyisgod]

Panthers will probably be my only bet. Same thing stood out to me. I have them as being a favorite and for some odd reason on a neutral playing field they are an underdog. That's ludacrous. Hardly see playoff games with that nice of a line. Probably will be the best play this post season.

 

[indiana]

chonce.........nicely done last week............BOL with all your action this week end............indy

 

[fballgenius]

Panthers -2.5 was the one I jumped on immediately. Seahawks had their "Miracle on Ice" last Sunday. The ice melts in Carolina.

 

[cashflow50]

i hate these dead numbers -5 geez..With you on carolina. gl this weekend chonce

 

[chonce]

Playoffs to date: 5-2 + 8.7 units

4 unit bets: 1-0 +4.0 units
3 unit bets: n/a
2 unit bets: 4-1 +4.8 units
1 unit bets: 0-1 -1.1 unit

As noted above I have a play today

Pats - 5 2 units

I am mulling adding a first half play, but still pondering it. I was thinking of taking the Pats Team Total OVER 12. But I know the Pat's like to defer, and KC may get that extra possession. Does anyone know if Andy Reid defers or receives? I am tempted to wait until the 2nd half, but if the Pats score 14 or 17 points in the first half, the book may account for that and make the total more expensive (say 14 or higher). That would give me the edge is knowing how well Edelman, Gronk and Vollmer look, but may cost me a rare opportunity to take a healthy Pat's team on a FH TT that is less than 14.5. I am rambling -- point is, I can't decide if I should make a first half play on the Pats, but I am considering it.

 

[chonce]

Add

Pat FH Team Total OVER 12 (-115) 2 units

I like the Pats today for this reason: the inactives list: https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/688450862759432192

The last few weeks it was literally almost all pro-bowlers -- Edelman, Jones, Hightower, Vollmer. Now, it is all healthy scratches except Tre Jackson (but Shaq Mason and Kline rotate as a starter with him anyway. Remember, Nate Solder was out on IR after only 3 games or so. So they team went 7-0 with a monster offense with the very o-line they will start with today. What killed them was losing their short targets like Edelmen and Amendola and also injuries to Vollmer and Cannon. So this offensive line with Edelman is 7-0. So I am betting, literally, that the O-line won't horrendous and the offense should produce pretty well.

 

[chonce]

Add

Cardinals -7 (-120) 2 units

I know the sharps are on GB but I think their very real problems were masked last week against a pretty mediocre team. Arizona may have less weaknesses than any team in the league. Man, so far I am all the chalk -- NE, ARI and Carolina. I like them all, especially Carolina. I think I will take Pitt though regardless of the injury situation. Manning is just as broken as Big Ben. I won't moneyline the game, but I do think it will be a game worth watching.

 

[chonce]

The team total OVER wins.

6-2 +10.7 units so far, NE-5 is pending.

 

[fballgenius]

Tailed you on that Pats 1H TT. If I foller and win the dollar, I gotta give the man a holler! Thanks, Choncey.

 

[chonce]

Hey good to know! The offense looks much better. Thanks for the words.

 

[chonce]

2-0 today + 4 units
Playoff record:

7-2 +12.7 units

Cardinals pending -- hate to lay all that chalk but the Pat's covered and this should be a bigger mismatch. But I am getting cold feet on -7 (-120) -- but I paid too much juice to buy out. If the Cards start hot I may try a middle at halftime, but we shall see. Great day. Also, if NE goes into Denver I will likely take them - Brady vs Manning. But I will have to see about the health of Collins and Jones

 

[chonce]

Wow, thought I was going to escape the Arizona game with a pretty lucky push. Instead I got an almost undescribably unlikely loss. All of that said, I went into that game 2-0 +4 units for the day and 7-2 +12.7 units for the week. Now I am 7-3 +10.4 units So a good day and a great playoff run so far. Now I need the Panthers tomorrow, which I feel pretty good about.

Check out the win probability chart for this one! http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/p...bility-green-bay-packers-at-arizona-cardinals

 

[chonce]

Playoffs to date: 7-3 + 10.4 units

4 unit bets: 1-0 +4.0 units
3 unit bets: 0-0
2 unit bets: 6-2 +7.5 units
1 unit bets: 0-1 -1.1 unit

Modify: I am upgrading my Panthers bet to: Carolina - 2.5 (3 units)

Add: Denver Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-124) 1 unit

So far this playoff it has been
Wild Card
KC -4 vs Hou -- 4 units -- Winner
Cinci + 3 -- 2 units -- Winner
Pitt ML -130 -- 2 units Winner
Minny + 6 (-120) -- 2 units - Winner
Sea/Min OVER 39.5 -- 2 units - Loser
Wash FH ML (-115) -- 1 unit -- Loser
GB/Wash 2Half UNDER 26 (-123) -- 1 units -- Winner

Divisional Round
NE First Half Team Total OVER 12 -- 2 units -- Winner
NE - 5 -- 2 units -- Winner
ARI - 7 -- 2 units -- Loser

Pending
Car -2.5 -- 3 units
Denver TT UNDER 24.5 (-124) 1 unit

 

[Greenbacks]

Good job.....Good luck!

 

[quantumleap]

Nice record "choncey".

@)

Just teasing.

What is it you like about Carolina today?

 

[chonce]

The line basically makes the argument that Carolina is the lesser team on a neutral field. Yet they beat SEA and that was the one game they didn't have a takeaway. They are 15-1 have an amazing record against the spread and are rested and getting healthy. Meanwhile SEA came about as close as is possible to losing that game last week without losing it. They were outplayed by Minny. They have been on the road for many weeks straight. I know most people, including the sharps (so I have heard from some bookmakers like SEA), but this game reminds me of the Thanksgiving Dallas game when all the sharps were on Dallas, the line seemed small for a then undefeated team.

Sea has won 5 road games in a row SU, but the Panthers are 5-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 5 and 6 at home respectively. People have overlooked the Panthers all year (including me vs Green Bay and Wash, perhaps more). Last week SEA played a brutally tough game. The offense was anemic -- outside of one excellent broken play by Wilson they basically had no offense. And they failed to cover. Overall Panthers are 11-5 ATS and SEA is 8-8. I thought this game would be Carolina -3.5 at least. I am not going to be scared off by the 2.5 line and will pounce on good value -- a 15-1 home team that just needs to win SU basically in a stadium they haven't lost in well over a year, vs a road-weary team.

Also, Lang LOVES SEA and he has lost 18/20 of his last paid documented bets!

 

[chonce]

Carolina covers though they made it more interesting that I thought it would be. This was a big play by my standards (3 units, when my max bet is 4). So, things continue to go quite well.

Playoff Record to Date: 8-3 +13.4 units

I have Denver Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-124) - 1 unit

I hope it hits, but it will be another profitable day regardless. I added to my Carolina bet because I liked that the best and I wanted to make sure if that covered, I had a decent haul even if I love my smaller wager (1 unit) tonight. All of that said, I think Manning is a major question mark and Pitt should be able to keep this close and hopefully hold Denver to 24 or less. I would love to see them win and eliminate Denver, but it will be tough with those injuries.

Good luck to all.

 

[bradyisgod]

Carolina covers though they made it more interesting that I thought it would be. This was a big play by my standards (3 units, when my max bet is 4). So, things continue to go quite well.

Playoff Record to Date: 8-3 +13.4 units

I have Denver Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-124) - 1 unit

I hope it hits, but it will be another profitable day regardless. I added to my Carolina bet because I liked that the best and I wanted to make sure if that covered, I had a decent haul even if I love my smaller wager (1 unit) tonight. All of that said, I think Manning is a major question mark and Pitt should be able to keep this close and hopefully hold Denver to 24 or less. I would love to see them win and eliminate Denver, but it will be tough with those injuries.

Good luck to all.

Good job. Tough is an understatement with Antonio Brown out on top of Ben's injury. Just hoping pitt covers, don't expect them to win but it would be cool to see. Taking the over/under is the right call here if you know what you're doing (I don't). Line looks pretty dicey.