Rarely post picks and easing into posting regularly so posting my record is irrelevant. My leans and topic starters, however, are not....
Leans:
Saints +7.5
Colts +7.5
49ers -1
Broncos -10
The point here is an open mind. So many times when I've gone into making my picks with a hardened and stubborn approach, the other side prevails...However, when I can counter that with reason as to why the other side might win, it's easier for me to discern the underlying factor that gives me a more confident angle. This forum is short on words and long on unrelenting proclamations. All I ask is why? Why that side over the other.
My thoughts:
Seahawks/Saints - For me, one player makes a difference in this Seattle/New Orleans matchup. Percy Harvin. He doesn't play, Saints cover, but lose SU. He plays, then Seattle wins by double digits. Hawks offense has been stagnant the past few weeks and in its current state won't pull away from the Saints. Revenge factor for N.O. in play as well. The one thing they didn't see in their first matchup and that they can't really plan for is the dynamic ability of Percy and the flexibility that that gives Seattle. Keep posted on that.
49ers/Panthers - SF knows what it means to shut down a dual threat to make his game suffer (happens when teams shut down Kaep), but moreso, SF has the defense to do so. The weakness of Carolina's pass game vs. the weakness of that Niners D (secondary). Deciding factor there is physicality of DB's. Also, Carolina's D is stout, but experience goes to SF and that's the angle I'll take in a defensive battle as Carolina doesn't have that luxury. Only way Panthers win is if Cam completely takes matters into his own hands....Again...I side with experience.
Colts/Patriots - Colts are just magic right now. Patriots SU, but Colts can cover, no doubt. No explanation is really necessary because the Colts keep pulling these W's out of late, despite a no name RB duo and even deeper no-namers at WR. Bill, the mad scientist, Belichick should have a very sound gameplan to reroute any pregame emphasis for the Colts, but right now Andrew Luck is just on fire. Turnovers haunted him against KC, but Luck was never shook. He's special, we know that. The Patriots aren't even close to 100% on either side of the ball. So why the TD spread against a hot team?...History...History and past results aren't playing this game. Neither team is decisively better and both are equally opportunistic. Colts cover, but the lean is Patriots SU due to homefield and Patriots on rest.
Chargers/Broncos - Rivers owns Manning in the playoffs...So it seems. Plus, they seem to bring this loosey goosey style of play that gets under the craw of the methodical and precise nature of a Peyton Manning led team and cold weather never sides with Peyton...Right? Well, we can play the underdog angle all we want and go with what we think we know, but usually when that happens, we're left holding our drinks at the bar with reluctance to pay due to a large wager lost. No need to overthink here. There's a lot of chinks in the armor of the Broncos team, but it doesn't get fully exposed against the Chargers. They win going away. Backdoor cover, maybe, or pure dominance. Either way, 10 points is generous to a Charger team that plays sound and mistake-free football. They haven't done that all year. Broncos are the play...Look for value in the AFCCG if you want to go against Manning, but don't look here.
Leans:
Saints +7.5
Colts +7.5
49ers -1
Broncos -10
The point here is an open mind. So many times when I've gone into making my picks with a hardened and stubborn approach, the other side prevails...However, when I can counter that with reason as to why the other side might win, it's easier for me to discern the underlying factor that gives me a more confident angle. This forum is short on words and long on unrelenting proclamations. All I ask is why? Why that side over the other.
My thoughts:
Seahawks/Saints - For me, one player makes a difference in this Seattle/New Orleans matchup. Percy Harvin. He doesn't play, Saints cover, but lose SU. He plays, then Seattle wins by double digits. Hawks offense has been stagnant the past few weeks and in its current state won't pull away from the Saints. Revenge factor for N.O. in play as well. The one thing they didn't see in their first matchup and that they can't really plan for is the dynamic ability of Percy and the flexibility that that gives Seattle. Keep posted on that.
49ers/Panthers - SF knows what it means to shut down a dual threat to make his game suffer (happens when teams shut down Kaep), but moreso, SF has the defense to do so. The weakness of Carolina's pass game vs. the weakness of that Niners D (secondary). Deciding factor there is physicality of DB's. Also, Carolina's D is stout, but experience goes to SF and that's the angle I'll take in a defensive battle as Carolina doesn't have that luxury. Only way Panthers win is if Cam completely takes matters into his own hands....Again...I side with experience.
Colts/Patriots - Colts are just magic right now. Patriots SU, but Colts can cover, no doubt. No explanation is really necessary because the Colts keep pulling these W's out of late, despite a no name RB duo and even deeper no-namers at WR. Bill, the mad scientist, Belichick should have a very sound gameplan to reroute any pregame emphasis for the Colts, but right now Andrew Luck is just on fire. Turnovers haunted him against KC, but Luck was never shook. He's special, we know that. The Patriots aren't even close to 100% on either side of the ball. So why the TD spread against a hot team?...History...History and past results aren't playing this game. Neither team is decisively better and both are equally opportunistic. Colts cover, but the lean is Patriots SU due to homefield and Patriots on rest.
Chargers/Broncos - Rivers owns Manning in the playoffs...So it seems. Plus, they seem to bring this loosey goosey style of play that gets under the craw of the methodical and precise nature of a Peyton Manning led team and cold weather never sides with Peyton...Right? Well, we can play the underdog angle all we want and go with what we think we know, but usually when that happens, we're left holding our drinks at the bar with reluctance to pay due to a large wager lost. No need to overthink here. There's a lot of chinks in the armor of the Broncos team, but it doesn't get fully exposed against the Chargers. They win going away. Backdoor cover, maybe, or pure dominance. Either way, 10 points is generous to a Charger team that plays sound and mistake-free football. They haven't done that all year. Broncos are the play...Look for value in the AFCCG if you want to go against Manning, but don't look here.
