Divisional Playoffs ATS picks with reasoning

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Last week = not so hot 1-3.

Gonna right the ship this week! Here we go:

Saturday Games:

Tennessee -3
Everyone loves Baltimore to win this game but I disagree here. I take nothing away from Baltimore's defense, who will probably score a touchdown in this one. My worry is on the offensive side of the ball. Tennessee's defense is much much better than Miami's. They will not allow rookie qb Flacco to do much. Tennessee's offense will be on the field longer in a clock control game. Collins is the greybeard leading his team to a win.

Carolina -10
This game will not be close. That defense may shut out Warner and that offense since Boldin will be, at best, playing hurt. The run game of Zona will not be able to establish itself against a stronger D than they saw when the dirty birds came to town. That rushing attack from Carolina will win this game big. If that doesnt work, look to Steve Smith. Carolina has too many weapons, Warner may have arthritis due to 40 and raining weather, and Boldin is hurt. Carolina.


Sunday Games
:

Philadelphia +4
I think 4 points is really generous in what I see as the closest to a toss up game this week as far as picking a SU winner. NYG had a week off to rest up which was good for them. (What's good for Jacobs is good for the G-men) I think McNabb and co. ride their hot streak right through NY. Seriously though, people get pissed at McNabb b/c he smiles during a loss. Get over it. This guy has shown for years that he is a gamer. I think this game will be won or lost on the PHI D vs NY O. Even with Jacobs, I think the Eagles win this. Their secondary is just too good, allowing them to load the box against Jacobs. Philadelphia in a good ole NFC east fist fight.

Steelers -6
**Warning, Possible homer pick**
Yes I was raised in Pitt and love my Stillers here. I'm pretty sure I have logic on my side here though. This game has the stars aligned to favor the Steelers. Terrible field, cold weather, snow, opposing star RB out. Steelers No 1 D will destroy the Chargers O in the cold. Chargers D will eventually be worn down by the Steelers allowing them to pull away in the second half. Also, don't forget that even if Ben doesn't play, Byron Leftwich is a 104.3 passer in relief this season (5 games).


Well those are my picks this week. Love 'em or hate 'em I love me some me this week. BOL to all. Can't wait for any of these games. If you can, you don't have a pulse! Have a brew and a smile and enjoy!

:toast:
 

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What a terrible day yesterday. I seem to be running really cold right now. Not even gonna talk about Carolina. What a joke. Should be 1-1 this weekend as i think its been established that the titans should have won that game.

Feeling great about todays picks. Loving the eagles +4 in a close game in the meadowlands. I think my steelers are looking good to cover also. HERE WE GO STEELERS!!!!

BOL today.
 

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What a weekend. Came out to 2-2 officially. Still think I should have been 3-1 but thats the way the ball bounces sometimes. I really liked todays picks more than yesterday's too. Rookie mistake to play Sat. Live and learn. Back late next week for my Conference championship picks!
 

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Carolina -10
This game will not be close. That defense may shut out Warner and that offense since Boldin will be, at best, playing hurt. The run game of Zona will not be able to establish itself against a stronger D than they saw when the dirty birds came to town. That rushing attack from Carolina will win this game big. If that doesnt work, look to Steve Smith. Carolina has too many weapons, Warner may have arthritis due to 40 and raining weather, and Boldin is hurt. Carolina.

Laying double digits in a playoff game is almost always a disaster. The talent differential between the very best team in the NFL and the worst is not that high. You can pretty much rest assured that the talent difference between two playoff teams is really razor thin. You will NEVER get value on a double digit playoff favorite. You may win occasionally if your team catches some breaks, but you will always be taking the worst of it going into the game.
 

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Laying double digits in a playoff game is almost always a disaster. The talent differential between the very best team in the NFL and the worst is not that high. You can pretty much rest assured that the talent difference between two playoff teams is really razor thin. You will NEVER get value on a double digit playoff favorite. You may win occasionally if your team catches some breaks, but you will always be taking the worst of it going into the game.



nice analysis after the game............ :lolBIG:
 

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