Divisional playoff games, good read by a good poster...

[WalkofLife]

The name of the guy is Sixth Sense, many of you read him. I just ran into one of his posts and I though we might wanna discuss it. Here it goes:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Last week I talked about how important it was to only look at the home teams because they had won at least three out of the four games SU for 10 consecutive years in a row. They did it again last week and that makes 11 straight years of winning at least three of four or better. I also talked about the three teams laying three or less points (or dogs) and if we knew they stood a good chance of winning straight up, they would probably also cover the spread. Those three went 2-1 SU and ATS. Keep this in mind for next year.

On to the divisional playoff round or round two if you will. Home teams continue to dominate in this round as well, but against the spread, it's important to know where to look to try and find winners. Over the last 20 years, there have only been three out of the twenty years where the home teams have failed to win more than two of the games straight up. In 17 of those 20 seasons, the home team has won three or more of the home games straight up and only one time in the last thirteen years (1995), which is important because the playoff format changed in 1990 and all home teams were coming off a bye week and facing teams not off a bye week. In the three years where they have failed, they have gone 2-2 SU. So, over the last 20 years, home teams have never failed to win at least half of these games, or two games.

Over those twenty seasons, home teams have been under .500 ATS only four times. Seven times they have gone 2-2 ATS and nine times they have been over .500 ATS. So, 45% of the time you would have won money betting all home teams, 35% of the time you would have gone .500 (lost juice) and 20% of the time you would have lost money. That's enough to probably keep you off the visitor but let's break it down a little more.

Over the last twenty seasons, home teams are now 46-31-3 ats 59.7%. If our home team has more wins than their opponent, they are 42-27-2 60.9% (4-4-1 if not). That would apply to all four teams this year. Ironically enough, if our home team has allowed 20 or less points over their last two games combined, that is a negative. Home teams who have allowed more than 20 points over their last two games are 35-13-1 72.9% (7-14-1 if not (11-18-2 from the 46-31-3)). That would rule out NE this week and leave KC, St. Louis and Philadelphia. By the way, teams allowing 20 or less points over the last two games went 0-3 last week - playing against Green Bay, Dallas and Baltimore. One last caveat to all of this is if the road team is over .500 ATS, then the home team is 25-4-1 86.2% (10-9-1 if not (21-27-2 from the 46-31-3)). That rules out the Rams and leaves us with just Kansas City and Philadelphia for this week. Add in the fact that those 25-4-1 teams are now 20-0-1 since 1987.

To sum it up, home teams are still the way to go in this round. That can change for the next round but this round should still represent the home teams in your arsenal. And, then being able to do a little more research shows us which home teams perform the best. Good luck this weekend.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Journey's destiny team won't make it past this weekend, sorry Fish...

 

[wilheim]

Good info - thanks Walk.


BOL today, wil.

 

[TheGeneral+]

 

[WalkofLife]

Ironically enough, the man likes GB. Check this out:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>PHILADELPHIA -5.5 Green Bay 41.5

If there is one game this week where the situations clearly lie with one team, it is this game. And they clearly lie with Philadelphia in this game. With that said, and admitting I bleed Green & Gold, I believe this game is a bad match-up for Philadelphia. Philadelphia qualifies in the 25-4-1 situation listed above, which is now 20-0-1 since 1987. If this total is at 42 or higher, they would also qualify in a situation that is 41-12-1, which is based on higher totals favoring the home team in the playoffs. It will be up to you, the reader, to determine if my lean towards GB is either the Green & Gold goggles I wear or actually a fair analysis of this game. Philly also qualifies in an against the spread situation, which is 45-17-1. That situation is based on Philly's excellent spread record this year and those teams seem to perform very well in the playoffs.

But, Philly, like St. Louis, isn't the better team in this game. Green Bay continues to play outstanding football, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl while the Philadelphia defense is allowing 5.0 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl, which indicates the Green Bay offense is better than the Philadelphia defense. Philly's offense is averaging 5.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and goes against a Green Bay defense, which is allowing 4.9 yppl against 5.1 yppl, which makes the Philly offense better than the Philly defense. Brian Westbrook won't play in this game, which could hurt their offensive production.

I mentioned last week that the Packers defense has really stepped it up against the run ever since they signed Grady Jackson and the fact the Packers had played much better defense as of late but against some poor offensive teams. Last week, Seattle moved the ball well against the Green Bay defense, but a closer look shows they actually did a very good job. They allowed Seattle to gain 340 yards (Seattle averages 352 yards per game), 5.0 yppl (Seattle averages 5.5 yppl), only 2.3 ypr (Seattle averages 4.4 ypr) and 6.2 yps (Seattle averages 6.4 yps). On offense, the Packers had their rushing game shutdown last week, gaining just 78 yards at 2.4 ypr but they showed they can throw the ball, passing for 319 yards at 8.4 yps. The Green Bay offense is very solid right now and they should see some success against a Philadelphia rush defense that is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr. GB ran for 241 yards at 6.5 ypr. Philly's rush defense had allowed 100 yards or more rushing in 11 straight games prior to their shutout of a Washington team that appeared to have quit. Even if Philadelphia looks to stop the run like most teams have as of late, GB will be able to throw the ball with their better than average passing game.

I use a formula that seems to rate teams pretty accurately. GB has averaged 28 points per game this year against teams allowing just 23 points per game for a total of +5 points better and their defense allows just 19 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game for a total of +3 points better. If you add those two numbers together, GB adds up to +9 (6 + 3). For Philadelphia, they have averaged 23 points per game against teams allowing 20 points per game for a total of +3 and their defense has allowed 18 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game for a total of +1. That adds up to +4 points better than average. From this we can see GB is the better team with a +9 versus a +4 for Philadelphia. You may or may not agree with this methodology but I can tell you that looking back over the last 20 seasons, there have only been five times when a team has had a rating of eight or higher and been an underdog against a team with a lower rating. All five of those teams were on the road and they went 4-1 ats. The most recent example of this was in 2001 when Philly went to Chicago as a three point dog and won the game 33-19. Green Bay is simply the better team in this game and the match-up favors them as well. My ratings favor Philly by only 3.5 points and my scoring formula only favors Philly by one point. This line, for whatever reason, is greatly exaggerated. Even though the situations clearly line up with Philly in this game, I'm not biting. Perhaps it's because I bleed Green & Gold but I went against the Packers when they played in St. Louis in 2001 in this round but that was a much different situation.

The play I like the best in this game is the over. I really think this game is a slam dunk to go over the total. The last time the Packers averaged this many points per game was in 1996 when they won the SB. I'm not anointing them the SB winner but back in 1996 I knew their offense was good for 30 points per game and that is the same thing this year. They have now scored 31 or more points in five straight games. This game is on the road and they may not get their 30+ points, but they will get their 24-27 points in this game. Barring a barrage of turnovers, that is a given. Philadelphia, somehow, someway, manages to get their points and they have scored at least 24 points in every home game this year since their third home game, when they began to turn around their season. Against good defenses like Dallas and Miami (road game), they managed to score 36 and 34 points so they can certainly get their points against better than average defenses. In eight games against better than average offenses, GB has allowed an average of 24 points this year and 27 points per game against the three better than average offenses they played on the road. Philly played SF two games ago at home and lost that game 28-31. The SF defense is average, which is probably somewhat close to the Packers when you consider how they play against the better offenses in the league. The SF offense is balanced and similar to GB but not as good as GB. In that game, SF was without Terrell Owens for most of the game but they still allowed SF to gain 414 yards at 5.6 yppl, including 206 yards rushing. It should be pointed out in that game that two of the three Philadelphia touchdowns came on drives of 40 yards or shorter while all three of SF touchdowns came on drives of 57 yards or more. All three of these teams, SF, GB and Philly, run the same offense and are very familiar with each other. The first game between GB and Philly only saw 31 points being scored but the weather was very poor and GB ran the ball nearly 60% of that game, partly because of the weather and because of Favre's thumb. Brett Favre is the kind of quarterback that won't quit and his team is good for at least one late score if they are getting beat badly. If GB is winning, Philadelphia, at home, is good for some late points as well. So, I don't see how these teams won't be able to score late in the game if we need a score to help push this game over the total, unless the game is very close, but I can't see either team not getting to 20 points in this game. The average points scored in a NFL game are 42 points so we are asking two better than average offenses to go against two average defenses and score a normal amount of points in a NFL game. Lastly, GB has now played seven games on the road in the playoffs during the Favre era, where they have been installed as underdogs. All seven of those games have seen at least 44 total points scored and the Packers have allowed at least 24 or more points in six of those seven, including at least 17 points in every game. Final numbers, using three different formula's predict about 47, 53 and 49 points being scored in this game. PHILADELPHIA 30 GREEN BAY 27 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Good luck Wil. I'd link it, but I'm not sure it's OK.

 

[Fishhead]

Packers best team in football.
Been saying this since week 8.
Do not let the Thanksgiving day loss fool you.
Barnett AND Sharper out for that game.

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
Packers best team in football.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[WalkofLife]

General;

22 of 28 for 377 yards 5 TD's 0 INT's

I keep on hearing that Peyton Manning can't win big games, when he has to. This is the best opportunity he's had to get over the hump...

We shall see...

GL, General. I'm just watching this game

 

[TheGeneral+]

Walk,

KC has the 29th ranked Defense in the NFL allowing 356.7 (146.5 Rushing) (210.2 Passing) and Peyton Manning coming to town. Now we have reason to worry about Holmes, but I think they have worries about a few Indy Colts as well. P. Manning IND 4267 ; Edgerrin James IND 1259

Honestly I think turnovers will decide all of these games. Teams will beat themselves.

 

[Ladeda]

Packers aren't even a legit playoff team. The luckily sqeezed into the playoffs thanks to the Vikings pulling one of the all time choke jobs. Their division was weak. The faced and weak playoff team in Seattle and barely sneaked past them. The Eagles may not be a "great" team, but they are certainly a very good team. The will beat the Packers easily probably holdoing a 7-14 point lead most of the game to win 31-21 or along those lines.

Green Bay is extremely overated because they have the big names offensive stars like Favre and Green. The average sports fan, including media say "they have a great QB and great RB so they must be dangerous"

It's hogwash , Green Bay sucks.

 

[WalkofLife]

Congrats, General. Great performance by CoonAss Manning. I guess they'll meet the Eagles in Houston and that's where the hope dies...

Good luck, you'll need it...

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Walk of Life:
Congrats, General. Great performance by CoonAss Manning. I guess they'll meet the Eagles in Houston and that's where the hope dies...

Good luck, you'll need it...

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[Dante]

NE D is a little different then KC...good luck Genny

 

[TheGeneral+]

Indianapolis Colts at 02:57

1-10-NE48 (2:57) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to E.James to NE 43 for 5 yards (T.Law).

2-5-NE43 (2:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to R.Wayne to NE 30 for 13 yards (E.Wilson).

1-10-NE30 (2:26) D.Rhodes left tackle to NE 21 for 9 yards (E.Wilson).

2-1-NE21 (1:55) E.James up the middle to NE 18 for 3 yards (T.Washington).

1-10-NE18 (1:32) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass to M.Harrison to NE 9 for 9 yards (T.Law).

2-1-NE9 59) E.James up the middle to NE 2 for 7 yards (A.Samuel).

1-2-NE2 40) E.James right tackle to NE 1 for 1 yard (T.Bruschi, M.Vrabel).

2-1-NE1 24) E.James up the middle to NE 1 for no gain (T.Bruschi, R.Harrison).

3-1-NE1 18) P.Manning pass incomplete to A.Moorehead.

4-1-NE1 14) E.James up the middle to NE 2 for -1 yards (W.McGinest).

New England Patriots at 00:11
1-10-NE2 11) T.Brady kneels to NE 1 for -1 yards.