division round

[THEGAME9000]

damb...although the totals went my way in the wc round, sides went 0-3-1 proving one more time that the only weather factor that has any effect on a game is wind, everything else means nothing.
after watching kc torch indy,(until the meltdown), i was convinced the everything was going to fall into place, then football does what football does...forces second guessing.
"whoever opens on the road at philly" wins sb...not a chance, too much publicity, too coincidental of a stat....then san diego pulls it out.
anyone who has read me over the years knows i live for trends and history because they have a way of continuing to happen...never bet against a streak, then again every streak ends and once again i"ll bet this one does...maybe...
new orleans does"nt win on the road in the playoffs, especially outside. sorry game, nice try, thanks for playing.

now it's back to dancing with the bitch i brought...don't count on weather (except wind), don't overthink it, and go with past performances with teams put in specific situations.

NO at SEA(10) 44.5....
teams who won su on the road in wc game are 4-13 su in div round if facing a team who made it to last years div round or better s 78...the rub...6-11 ats...lots of points to give...i'll land on the side of forget the spread and take the team who has shown to win the game more times than not..no overthinking or second guessing.

IND at NE(7) 50.5...
indy...the team who started off my weekend slide last week...times up, shit outta luck.
...teams who won su as a home dog in thier last playoff game..4-14-1 ats s 99 in following round.
...teams who won wc game su but allowed 21+pts have went 4-23 su in div round s 78.
...teams who scored 40+pts in playoffs have went 3-23 ats in following round s 95. (usually the kiss of death)
...teams who lost last years con champ game are 15-0 su and 12-3 ats s 78, if they're listed as a div round fav this year.
...home teams who lost last year su as a fav are 20-7-1 ats s 86 at home in thier 1st playoff game this year.
**since 95, there has been 5 playoff games where both teams scored at least 30+pts, the winner of these games have went on to become roadkill all 5 times losing su by an average of 17pts.

SF at CAR(P) 41...
here's a game like last weeks kc/ind game, when i took kc they were catching 2, by the time they game rolled around they were giving 2.5..this one i will wait until closer to gametime to make a final decision because there has never been a situation in the history of the playoffs where a road fav in the wc round has won outright then went on to be listed as a road fav in the div round.
...home teams are 7-3 ats s 93 in the 1st 2 rounds of the playoffs if thier opponent was on the road 2 games back, and a road fav in last.

SD at DEN(9) 54.5...
...teams who won su on the road in wc game are 4-13 su in div round if facing a team who made it to last years div round or better s 78...the rub...6-11 ats
...home teams who lost last year su as a fav are 20-7-1 ats s 86 at home in thier 1st playoff game this year.
...all playoff games with a posted total of 54+pts have went 9-0 over s 98.
**teams who won wc game su on the road by 17+pts are 2-7 su on the road in div round s 92, losing by an average of 15pts.

this weekend i'll take the stats and steer clear of what seems to be too easy.

seattle
new england
over ind/ne
over sf/car
denver
over sd/den


GL

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

gotta love lord football...with the linesmakers being at the top of thier game it's best to put your action in the minute you decide on a selection, especially this year. (it's given me sweet breaks so far)
by now it should start being fairly clear who's going where and what the outcome should be.
the beauty of this year is the matchups and the storylines are truly poetic.
in sundays games you look at the possibility of peyton facing brady for the ticket to the bowl given the way thier earlier game played out, manning up big at half, brady rallying to win in ot...or san diego coming from the 6 (in what has proven to be a recipe for success) the last few years, to fulfill the destiny of that stinking opening up at philly storyline.
how about sf and carolina...the regular season game where you could'nt buy a score looking to pound on eachother in order to fly out to seattle and avenge a beating that both teams just happened to receive from the hawks in seattle this year.
with seattle not looking to efficient offensively lately, don't be shocked to see both sf and carolina put some points on the board sunday...it would only make sense in this years "world of the playoffs", setting up another game to easily second guess on.
i can't wait to see next weeks lines, who's going to be in the cc games and where the afc game will be played....to quote zep; "you guess about a thing, you really outta know".

cya monyana...

GAME.

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Not sure why you're not giving SD a chance to win the game against Den. From your post last week w/ "season #'s" you have Den -1 & SD +8. Y change now, while you also had SD as of the 3 teams that may represent the AFC in the SB. However, your reasoning then and now is the fact of the season opener in Phil is "garbage". Isn't this considered as a trend? IMO it is a trend and your belief in a trend repeating itself is in effect as well. If I may add, Manning is 7-6 SU against SD & Manning also holds a record of 1-6 ATS when favored at home against San Diego. Here's also an unbelievable (beginning) trend just case you're not aware, when Denver ends up with a season ending record of 13-3 and holds a division round game, Den is 0-4. Occurred 4 times 1984, 1996, 2005 & 2012. History will repeat itself and they have a good chance that Manning's lifetime record in the playoffs of 8 one & done will also continue.

tex

 

[THEGAME9000]

tex...

don't get me wrong, i give sd a monster chance to cover maybe even win outright. it's just me knowing the difference between a stat or trend being proven by repetition over a great length of time and a stat that is purely coincidental. now when you add to that the fact that this "trend" has been broadcast on nat tv again and again for the world to become believers in...then it becomes a, "suck everybody in" type of thing with me, which usually fails, but like i mentioned in this post, i bet against it for that reason last week and the outcome was; "sorry game, nice try, thanks for playing".
i would always post early during the reg season but with the playoffs this year the linesmakers have been so good at setting the spread i like to wait to see if and which way it moves closer to gametime. now denvers line is dropping from the 10 to 9.5 to 9, now to 8...the more it drops the more i like san diego.
the selections i post are based on past history, situational trends and math..head not heart type of thing, but i also make allowances when what i believed turned out not to matter (like a halftime adjustment).
personally after the wc game outcomes i put in an 8-bagger with san diego on board just incase it's my pure stubborness separating me from reality in this game..(and so far it's 4-0 side and total by the way).
if this games line keeps dropping i'm going to love it all the more, much like the seattle-7.5 i have riding with it.
i'm also not a big fan of peyton manning, i believe he's a choker in big games, but if i were to let that be the reason i bet against him i would essentially spinning my wheels capping games and letting my heart do the hoping.
we'll see what happens...gl today.

GAME.

 

[cruisin]

Quote from Game: "now when you add to that the fact that this "trend" has been broadcast on nat tv again and again for the world to become believers in...then it becomes a, "suck everybody in" type of thing"


That's exactly what I was thinking when reading your response. Now that it's been 'exposed' what a way to suck people in. Personally, I see Brady beating Manning yet again, should it go that way. Can't wait for your info next week. Thanks for the intel as always.

 

[whiskeybent]

Game,
any opinion yet on the SF/Carolina game?
I know you said something about waiting to see where the line went.

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Game, thank you for taking the time to response and elaborate.

tex

 

[THEGAME9000]

whiskey...
i still have a little superstition in me no matter how hard i have tried to deny it for the last 30 years, so i am always apprehensive to post something i need on a parlay for a nice payday...but...carolina and over as long as sf continues to be giving points (or a pt as it may be)..
if it goes to pick or carolina favored...then sf.
it's tough when a game is listed as a pick or small fav to dog all of a sudden with 10 mins to gametime.
changes the dynamic.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Quote from Game: "now when you add to that the fact that this "trend" has been broadcast on nat tv again and again for the world to become believers in...then it becomes a, "suck everybody in" type of thing"


That's exactly what I was thinking when reading your response. Now that it's been 'exposed' what a way to suck people in. Personally, I see Brady beating Manning yet again, should it go that way. Can't wait for your info next week. Thanks for the intel as always.

gotta be careful with that one, you saw yesterday what happens to teams who drop 40+ on somebody, that's why i had to hedge a 8-bagger with sd on it just incase ne dropped a 100 on indy like last year...low and behold....

 

[THEGAME9000]

sorry cruis..

somebody was beatin on the door...now to finish, i personally see denver as the weakest link in winning a sb, when kc was eliminated i had ne as my frontrunner to take it all again, when sd won, then i realized it could be the perfect storm for them to have thier year.
now after ne drops 40+, it looks more and more like sd might just defy all odds, damb the torpedoes and ram through all the way.
bottom line, if ne wins outright next week, it's them without question (imo)...if sd wins outright today it's them without question (imo)
i'll explain why next week.
again.."we guess about a thing, we really oughta know"

GAME.

 

[cruisin]

Totally agree, Game. It's been great playoffs with new faces, and looking forward to the rest. New energy in NE. If SD wins today, they win it all. Seems creepy, but I'm not goin' a'gin the grain.... and when we see who Philly plays in their first home game next season, we'll already know the SB winner. lol. Would have loved to place a SB future on SD at the beginning of the season. That's why they play the game. Really excited to see it all play out.

 

[whiskeybent]

Are you still sticking with Denver today?

 

[THEGAME9000]

my plays were in on friday and what i posted i still stand by...there is no changing them.
my official play is denver and over as stated.

gl today.

 

[whiskeybent]

BOL
with you for the ride

 

[greenchris]

my plays were in on friday and what i posted i still stand by...there is no changing them.
my official play is denver and over as stated.

gl today.

Game, where u at for championship weekend? Best of luck!