Dirtydog's Week #17 NFL "BEST BET" and other Selections with analysis.....Good Luck!!

[DIRTYDOG1]

:wink:

Hello my friends...

Last week was good to us as we finished up with a mark of 5-2 ATS which is a winning rate of 71.43%, from the outset I can tell you that I will not be foolhardy by making 7 selections this week and I firmly recommend that you limit the number of selections you make as well...

...motivations are sometimes tough to evaluate and never is that more true than in the final week of NFL action, some teams are already seeded and can not advance their positioning any better and will likely sit players or play them sparingly...

...other teams are still fighting for a playoff spot but are matched up against teams that are eliminated which leads to huge point spreads on the favorites in those affairs, the problem for us is that we don't know if the doggie will show up or not...

...and for that matter we don't know if the huge favorite will play a tight conservative type of game and in the end be simply happy with a FG win, we also have to be careful with the time slots in which these teams are playing...

...for example if TEAM-A's playoff chances or playoff positioning is dependant on TEAM-B's winning or losing and TEAM-A is playing the late afternoon game while TEAM-B is playing in the earlier time slot, than TEAM-A will know by the late afternoon kickoff if they have something to play for or not.

I will be listing my Week 17 plays in this thread and will be listing them in order of priority according to the current spread on the game, meaning that if I like a favorite or an OVER in a contest I will in all liklihood post and wager on that contest first as a means of locking in the value before the public has a chance to influence the line later in the week...

...often I will play a doggie early in the week if the number on that affair is currently set on a "Key Number" and I don't want to risk the number falling backward the wrong way on me which was the case last week when I made St Louis +5 over the Niners as my BEST BET...

...the Lambs weren't sitting on a key number but I didn't want to lose any value on the game by having it fall backward on to the number of 4 and risk a push, as it turned out the Niners won by a single point 17-16 and of course it didn't matter as we collected on another nice BEST BET winner!!....now onward with this weeks BEST BET.

Hopefully everyone has a safe and joyous holiday...MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

_____________________________________________________________

MIAMI +3 over Jets
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
5*****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________

The number on this contest opened with the hometown "Bretts" installed as 2.5 or 3 point favorites depending on where you looked and an opening O/U total of 42 to 43, once again depending on where you looked, as of Tuesday at 2 am the side is still hoovering around Jets -2.5 or -3 points while the O/U has dipped to 42.5 or 42 at most outs.

I don't often recommend buying a half point, but if you only use one out and that out has the number at Miami +2.5...

...BUY the 1/2 Point as an insurance policy because 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams has been decided by a FG and the Jets won all five meetings in straight up fashion...

...that's right, let me repeat that "The Jets have won the past FIVE straight meetings between these two teams", as a matter of fact the Jets have won 9 of the last 10 games against the Phins played in New York!

Ahhhhh but the Jets QB that engineered most of those 9 home wins in 10 tries over the Fish has now sprouted gills and is in a Miami uniform, yup, I am talking about none other than the pride of the Thundering Herd...Marshall's own Chad Pennington.

Former Jet QB Chad Pennington was kicked to the curb in lieu of 65 year old Brett Favre who oh-by-the-way is showing his tired and aged arm as of late with 6 INT's in his last four games...

...consequently the Jets have lost 3 of their last 4 outings with their only win in this span a 31-27 come from behind win by the Jet defense over the Bills, yup you got that right, it was the Jet defense that won that game by way of a fumble recovery for a TD thanks to Buffalo's own J.P. Losman, makes me wonder if the Jets sent Losman a Christmas present as they really should have...if they haven't as of yet.

These two teams have been heading in opposite directions for a while now as the visiting Fish keep finding ways to win as evidenced by posting wins in 8 of their last 9 outings and when taking to the road have won and covered 5 of 7 roadies this season to date.

...the only bothersome thing I don't like about Miami in this affair is the fact that they are playing on the road again for the second straight week and are actually on the road again for the 4th time in a 5 week span...

...however, the "Bretts" have been clocking their fair share of air miles themselves lately as they played in Seattle last week which was their 4th road game in a 6 week span and two of their roadies were on the left coast (at Seattle and at San Francisco).

The talking heads in the media have been trying to build this contest up to a climax as well as trying to garner interest in the New England-Buffalo game by portraying this as a race to the finish line to see which team will win the AFC East title...

The truth of the matter is that these two teams (Miami-Jets) will play the late afternoon game which kicks off at 4:15 pm est, meanwhile, New England and Buffalo will kick off their contest at 1:00 pm est...

...if New England defeats Buffalo (as they should), than this contest between Miami and the Jets becomes quite meaningless for the Jets because they will be eliminated from the playoffs...

...the only shot the Jets have at the playoffs is if the Pats were to lose at Buffalo and then the Jets were to defeat Miami.

In the end analysis I'll take my chances with the hotter Miami team that is being spotted points and is riding on a huge cloud of momentum and has a QB under center (Pennington) that wants revenge and is used to playing in the Meadowlands over a Jet team that has been reeling as of late in losing 3 of 4 games and is led by a once great but now gray haired has been.

Take care and be well my friends..

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[Scoops]

Nice Post. I hope you have a great week.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

While trolling around on the net trying to find tidbits of information about this weeks match ups I came across the article below that clearly outlines the playoff senarios for week 17....hope it helps!!

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:
_____________________________________________________________

Out of the Playoff Picture:

Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins.

Playoff Spots Still Up For Grabs:

AFC West

The AFC West will be settled with a winner-takes-the-division game between Denver and San Diego next week. The Broncos missed out on another chance to clinch the division by losing at home to Buffalo and now must win at San Diego to avoid an embarrassing collapse. The winner will be the #4 seed in the AFC and will host Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs.

The AFC now stacks up like this: If Miami beats New York, the Dolphins win the division. If the Jets win and New England defeats Buffalo, the Patriots are the division champs...

Finally, if the Jets win and the Patriots lose, the Jets will take the AFC East crown. The winner of the division will be the #3 seed in the AFC and will host the second wild card qualifier in the first round.

NFC North

Minnesota still just needs one win or one Chicago loss to clinch the division but have yet to clinch after losing to Atlanta and watching the Bears defeat Green Bay in overtime. The winner of the division will be the #3 seed in the playoffs and will host the second wild card qualifier in the first round.
AFC Wild Card
With Indianapolis claiming the first of two spots and the #5 seed (they win ties with Baltimore only and with Baltimore and New England even if they lose this weekend), there is just the #6 seed up for grabs heading into the final weekend. Baltimore has the advantage and will clinch the wild card with a win. The Ravens hold the tiebreak edge over all three teams from the AFC East and have control over their playoff hopes.
The Breakdown:




1. Baltimore Ravens...With a win, only New England could tie them for the wild card with an 11-5 record and Baltimore would win the tiebreak because of a superior conference record.

2. New England Patriots...If the Ravens lose, New England would clinch a playoff spot with a win over Buffalo. That playoff spot could come in the form of the wild card or the division championship (see above). A loss to Buffalo would eliminate the Patriots from playoff contention because they lose any tiebreak situation.


....Alternate Situation #1: If Baltimore and Miami lose while New England wins the Ravens, Dolphins and Jets would finish in a 3-way tie. The Jets would eliminate the Dolphins via head-to-head because the tie between division teams must be settled first. The Jets would win a tie at 10-6 because of a better conference record than the Ravens.


....Alternate Situation #2: If Baltimore, New England, and Miami all lose to finish in a 3-way tie at 10-6, the Ravens would win the tie. Since the tie between the division opponents would be settled first and the Ravens hold the tiebreak edge over both New England (conference record) and Miami (head-to-head), Baltimore wins in that situation as well.


Schedule note: New England plays at 12:00 Sunday while the other three teams play at 3:15, so if New England wins, they will have to sit back and watch the afternoon games, hoping that either Baltimore or Miami loses.


NFC Wild Card


With their win and losses by Tampa Bay and Dallas, Atlanta clinched a playoff spot over the weekend, although their seed is still up in the air – they will either be the #2 seed as the NFC South champ or the #5 or #6 as a wild card.

It is interesting (at least to me) that if all three teams would have finished 11-5, Atlanta would have been the odd team out, but if all three finish 10-6, it will be Tampa Bay that misses the playoffs. The reason is that at 11-5, Tampa Bay would have likely won due to the strength of victory tiebreak, but now Atlanta wins the tie because of a better record against common opponents.


The breakdown:

1. Dallas Cowboys...The Cowboys can still clinch a playoff spot with a win this weekend despite their well-documented recent struggles. Dallas would win a tie with Tampa Bay because of a head-to-head victory and any tie that involves Chicago because of a better conference record...

....A Cowboy loss opens the door for Tampa Bay or Chicago and eliminates Dallas. Philadelphia would move ahead of the Cowboys at 9-5-1 as the two teams meet in a game rife with playoff implications.

2. Tampa Bay--Chicago...Thanks to the wonderful world of NFL tiebreaks, we cannot say which of these two teams has the upper hand if Dallas loses because it would come down to whether Atlanta won their game or not....

....Stay with me here – if Dallas loses and Tampa Bay and Chicago both win, the Atlanta game would decide the sixth playoff team. An Atlanta win would send Tampa Bay to the playoffs because their head-to-head win over Chicago would decide the tie.

However, an Atlanta loss would cause a three-way tie in which Tampa Bay would be bounced first – and thus, eliminated – because of the rule that divisional ties must be settled first...

...Thus, Chicago would advance in a three-way tie with Atlanta and Tampa Bay even though they lost to both teams. Weird. The Bears are also still alive for the NFC North as documented above. Of course, if either team loses, they are eliminated.

4. Philadelphia Eagles...If Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Chicago all lose, the Eagles will take the final playoff spot at 9-6-1 with the win over the Cowboys.


Schedule Note: Atlanta (vs. St. Louis), Tampa Bay (vs. Oakland), and Chicago (at Houston) play at 12:00 so we will know which team would join the Falcons in the event of a Dallas loss. Dallas and Philadelphia kick off at 3:15 and the outcome of that game will determine the final playoff spot.


Seeding:


AFC

1. Tennessee Titans...Win or lose, the Titans will finish with the AFC’s best record.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers...Even with a loss, Pittsburgh would win a potential tie with either Miami (conference record) or New England (head-to-head) at 11-5.


3. AFC East Champion

Regardless of who comes out of the division, they will finish with a better record than the AFC West champion.

4. AFC West Champion...Winner of San Diego and Denver game.

5. Indianapolis Colts

6. Second Wild Card


NFC

1. New York Giants...New York clinched the #1 seed with the win over Carolina on Sunday night as Carolina could only tie them for the best record in the NFC.


2. NFC South Champion

Carolina would have been the number one seed if they had defeated the Giants on Sunday, but if they lose at New Orleans and Atlanta beat St. Louis, the Falcons will win the division by virtue of a better conference record. Regardless, the NFC South champ will finish with a better record than the NFC North winner.


3. NFC North Champion

Regardless of whether the Vikings or the Bears win the division, they will finish as the #3 seed. Minnesota defeated Arizona head-to-head while the Bears can only win the division at 10-6; Arizona can finish no better than 9-7.

4. Arizona Cardinals

5. First Wild Card

This spot would go to Dallas if they win and Atlanta loses. Any other scenario other than Atlanta winning the NFC South sees the Falcons in this spot. In that case, Carolina would be the #5 seed.


6. Second Wild Card

This spot could be occupied by Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Chicago, or Philadelphia.
_____________________________________________________________


:wink::wink:

 

[Twisted]

Man that Jets game just looks too damn easy, makes me nervous!!

After last night I think we got a good look of " Bein Conservative " this is such a dangerous week. Teams pullin off fake FG's , Fake Punts etc. but there are a few diamonds in the rough. Im watchin for the Eagles to toss in a clunker too especially after TB wins early GL , look forward to see whatcha like and so far Im with ya :toast:

 

[Twisted]

Dont mean to hijack ur thread but found this article interesting............

There is at least one team, and possibly two depending on the result of tonight's Monday Night Football game, that will be playing at 1 PM ET next Sunday that could render the Eagles' performance against hated rival Dallas utterly moot.

Those teams are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) and the Chicago Bears (8-6).

If Tampa Bay wins their early game at home against woeful Oakland next week, then the Eagles will head into their contest knowing that they are officially out of the playoff picture.

Similarly, if Chicago wins tonight in the Windy City against listless Green Bay, then the Bears also could have the opportunity to knock Philly out of the playoff race with a victory this weekend at Houston provided that desperate Minnesota is able to secure a home triumph against a New York Giants squad that has already wrapped up the best record in the conference. (Update: Chicago defeated Green Bay in overtime, 20-17)
The NFL undoubtedly made this switch to the 4:15 PM ET slot because they want to harness the exceptional drawing power of the possibly playoff-bound Cowboys. There will be cries of 'conspiracy' (to help Dallas get into the postseason, that is), I am sure, but this was a very simple business decision by the league. That is, Dallas sells.

It is not a coincidence that last week's match-up in Texas Stadium against the New York Giants was the most-watched Sunday Night Football game ever. The league isn't into conspiracy; they are, however, into maximizing revenue.

What better way to do so than to feature the Cowboys, as they shoot to make the playoffs against rival Philadelphia (who also could hypothetically be alive for a postseason spot when the game begins)? We haven't even touched on the Terrell Owens-Donovan McNabb subplots.

The National Football League made the right call here in moving the game to the 4:15 PM ET spot. That said, this action undoubtedly raises Dallas' chances to win the contest, in my opinion.

Why do I say this? In such a bitter rivalry, it would seemingly mean little for the Eagles' efforts to keep Dallas out of the postseason even if Philly's own playoff chances were ended before the game begins. That is the conventional wisdom.

I assert that Philadelphia's performance against Dallas next Sunday could suffer due to the scheduling change because of how two players may or may not be used in the game: Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook.

It is doubtless that McNabb will be highly motivated to keep former teammate Terrell Owens from reaching the postseason. However, the decision may not all be his.

It is well-known that Eagles management is very seriously considering moving McNabb in the upcoming off-season. If the Dallas game becomes a meaningless one for the Eagles by kickoff time or shortly thereafter, it is highly likely, in my opinion, that you will see Kevin Kolb at some point in the contest.

:toast:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

As mentioned in my original posting at the top of this thread, I will be posting any and all of my plays for this week in this same thread and will be listing them in order of priority according to the current spread on the game...

...meaning that if I like a favorite or an OVER in a contest I will in all liklihood post and wager on that contest first as a means of locking in the value before the public has a chance to influence the line later in the week.

I've already fired in a Week 17 "BEST BET" which is on Miami +3 and did so Tuesday morning at 2 am, it is now Tuesday afternoon 2:30 pm and I just fired in my second "BEST BET" wager for the final week of the 2008 regular season...

_____________________________________________________________

HOUSTON -1 over Chicago
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________

I waited ALL DAY for this line to come out and immediately hopped all over it when it came out with the Texans only laying -1 point to the visiting Bears, meanwhile, the O/U total opened at 47.

We backed the Packers over these toothless Bears last night on MNF and collected on a 2**Play Selection Winner and we backed New Orleans against these Bears the week prior to that and pushed the bet...

...both GB and NO had the Bears beat but in the end let Chicago take them to OT where the Bears managed to pluck victory from the jaws of defeat with Robbie Gould FG's in the extra period.

In the interest of full disclosure I also played the OVER in both of Chicago's last two games and thusly I am 2-1-1 ATS over the past two weeks in games involving Chi-Town and for the season I have gone 5-2-1 ATS in games involving the Bears, needless to say I think I have a pretty firm handle on them.

It was ohhhhhhhhh so tempting to place a wager against this Houston team last week in their contest at Oakland because of the fact that these Texans were undoubtably in "Let-down Mode" following a huge home win over Tennessee, however, I felt I needed to get +9 with the da'Rayduhs or I would stay away...

...the thought process in possibly going against Houston last week and looking to Oakland not only stemmed from Houston coming off that hugh home win over Tenny but also because Houston was laying road points for only the second time in their franchaise history and they had failed to cover as a road favorite that time...

...meanwhile da'Rayduhs entered last weeks game versus Houston fresh off an embarressing 23 point home loss to the visiting Patriots, thusly the betting public viewed Houston and Oakland thru different colored glasses and in the end it was Oakland that pulled the outright 27-16 upset over Houston.

This week we have a similar opportunity as the betting public saw Houston lose last week to lowly Oakland and that same betting public knows that the Texans are eliminated from playoff contention while the Bears need to win this game to keep their hopes alive...

...the betting public also has seen the Chi-Town Bears win back to back prime time games in OT and has heard from the media how these never-say-die Bears are soooooo resilient in their march to the playoffs.

As we all know "Joe Public" type bettors LOVE to wager on the favorites and on the OVERS, however, in this case I think they will back da'Bears who are being spotted a point by a team that isn't even playoff bound.

Ahhhhhhhh but there are many reasons WHY the odds maker has installed the visiting Bears as road doggies in this contest and topping the list is the fact that their last two games were in Chi-Town against two non playoff teams (New Orleans and Green Bay) and BOTH of those teams had da'Bears beat and it took OT for Chicago to win...

...as a matter of fact Chicago is on the road for the first time in a month and consequetly will be facing a real opponent for the first time in five weeks which was the last time they ventured away from the friendly confines of Soldier Field, that trip resulted in a humbling 14-34 loss at the Vikings as a 4 point road doggie.

A check-see of how these Bears have fared on the road this year shows that they are 3-4 straight up and 3-3-1 ATS and in the long term have lost 7 of their last 10 road tilts in straight up fashion...

...on the flip side of things the home town Texans have won 5 of their 7 home contests this season in straight up fashion and have managed to cover 8 of their last 11 home games ATS, needless to say Houston plays their best ball at home and figures to come out firing on all cylinders this week because a win gives them a seasonal mark of 8-8 straight up and thusly avoids a losing campaign.

In the end analysis Houston is a better team at this point in the season than Chicago as they had won four straight games (4-0 ATS) prior to last weeks embarressing melt-down at Oakland and they are playing their final game of the year at home in front of the home crazies...

...the Texans also reside in the much tougher AFC South which includes Tennessee at 13-2 and Indianapolis at 11-4 while Chicago comes from a division that has spawned the likes of Detroit at 0-15 and under achieving Green Bay at 5-10.

Yup, I'll gladly take the home town Texans in this spot laying a short price over a Bears team that has been living on the edge as of late and in truth should be counting their lucky stars to be still in playoff contention, look for the Texans to control this contest from start to finish and in the end win by double digits in a game that won't even be that close.

Take care and be well my friends

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[tbonestk]

YO! Dog....


Two (5*) already? My book hadn't even posted the lines yet...

Salivating right now my friend....ope:

Let 'er rip... last week of regular football... :toast:

Have you looked at New England yet? Knowing Bellichec, he's not going to leave anything on the table... going for the kill...

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

YO! Dog....


Two (5*) already? My book hadn't even posted the lines yet...Salivating right now my friend....ope:
Let 'er rip... last week of regular football... :toast:

Have you looked at New England yet? Knowing Bellichec, he's not going to leave anything on the table... going for the kill...

_____________________________________________________________

:howdy:Hello tbonestk...

I'm an odd ball I guess, while most are kicking back and watching the NFL Sunday games or trying to figure what half time wagers they want to make, I have the games on so I can hear what is going on but I really don't pay all that much attention as I prefer to get a jump start on the next week's slate of games...

I much prefer to check out the high lights from the games and read the box scores and recaps, its better that way in my humble opinion because by doing it that way I am ahead of most of the crowd...

...for example I made my first wager this week about 2 am on the Miami Dolphins +3 as soon as the line was available and I actually stayed up all night Monday night-Tuesday Morning after the conclusion of the Chicago-Green Bay contest handicapping the rest of the upcoming slate of games...

I pin-pointed Houston as a must play for me this week and was prepared to lay Houston -3......I waited and waited and waited for a line to be released on the game, finally in the early afternoon 5Dimes opened the game up with Houston -1 over Chicago...

...needless to say I jumped on Houston firmly with both feet, as it turns out I was correct in my original accessment that the sharps would pound Houston (which is WHY I wanted them early), the line is currently somewhere between Houston -2.5 and -3...

...although I fully expect the public to bang this number back to Houston -1.5 or -2 by kickoff, you never know as some books might just take a stand on Houston and leave it at -2.5 or -3 which in my humble opinion is still not a bad number as I was prepared to lay -3 with Houston from the outset.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Nice Post. I hope you have a great week.

:howdy:Hello Scoops...

Thank you for the kind words my friend, hopefully BOTH of us will have some holiday cheer following this weekend's slate of NFL games and College Bowl games...

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:toast:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

First of all I would like to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas, as I sit here in my little home office typing this I truly find it hard to believe that its Christmas Eve morning already...

...seems like just yesterday while passing out candy to the trick or treaters that I commented to my beautiful wife "Damn honey, its hard to believe that Thanksgiving is right around the corner already".

Last night my wife was busy stuffing birdzilla and glazing the ham for Christmas Eve dinner, meanwhile, I was at the kitchen table busy being a good husband by peeling the boiled potatoes and chopping up the onions and celery for my wife for her world famous potato salad...

...while we were doing all this stuff my wife gave me a brain storm, there I was slicing and dicing and I was thinking about the rest of the NFL games on this coming Sunday's docket, anyway, my wife is a HUGE Steeler fan and believe it or not she knows her football...

I was thinking about Baltimore's upcoming final home game of the regular season against Jacksonville, so I said to the wife (speaking out loud more than anything else)...

..."Man I like Baltimore at home this week over the Jags but I don't like the idea of laying double digit points", my wife replies..."Yeah but the Ravens have one hell of a defense and don't allow that many points do they?"

Anyway, after I finished doing my husbandly duties I took a closer look-see at the upcoming match up between the Ravens and Jags that will take place in Baltimore and in the end decided to go ahead and fire in a wager on them based on what I found...
_____________________________________________________________

BALTIMORE -12.5 over Jacksonville
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________

The odds maker opened the line on this affair with the home town Ravens installed as 11.5 point favorites and an O/U total of 35.5, as of this morning most shops have the line at Baltimore -12.5 to -13.0, meanwhile, the O/U has remained steady at 35.5 which is not that surprising to me...

...trend players might like to take a shot with the OVER 35.5 in this contest because 8 of the last 9 games between these two former divisional rivals have flown OVER the total when the affair took place in Baltimore, however, you gotta keep in mind that this is the first meeting between these two teams since 2005...

...personally I wouldn't touch the O/U in this contest with a ten foot pole, mainly because a closer inspection of the results from the Ravens first seven home games this year reveals that Baltimore has NOT ALLOWED more than 13 points in any game at home this year and in their first seven home games are allowing a meager 10.43 points per game!

As mentioned above I really do not like laying double digit points in an NFL game, however, after reviewing all of the information surrounding this contest and weighting out the intangibles I believe a play is warranted on the Ravens...

This game means everything to the Ravens and consequently means nothing to the visiting Jags, a win this week in their final home game of the regular season would lock down a Wild Card spot for the Ravens in the playoffs regardless of what happens in New England's game at Buffalo...

...keep in mind that if both New England and Baltimore win in the final week both teams would finish with a mark of 11-5, however, Baltimore would win the Wild Card by virtue of having a better conference W/L record of 8-4 versus the Patriots conference record of 7-5...

...the irony of it all is that New England could very well finish the year with a record of 11-5 but be totally left out of the playoff picture if Miami defeats the Jets and wins the AFC East and Baltimore wins out over the Jags, maybe that's the football god's way of getting even with New England for their cheating and other under-handed tactics of the past few years.

Anyway, the visiting Jags have NOTHING to play for in this contest, they enter this tilt with a mark of 5-10 and already have their bags packed after giving their all last week in their home finale against the hated Colts and STILL losing by the final score of 24-31...

...the visiting Jags have failed to cover 11 of their 15 games this year ATS and have lost 5 of their last 6 outings and posted a mark of 1-5 ATS in those contests, as mentioned above these teams have not met since 2005, however, the Ravens have won 6 of their last 7 meetings versus the Jags and that was when the Jags were a decent team trying to win, which of course is NOT the case in this affair.

Baltimore has traditionally protected the home field very well as evidenced by winning 16 of their last 24 home games in straight up fashion, this year the Ravens have posted a mark of 5-2 straight up and ATS at home with their only two home losses coming against Tennessee (10-13) and Pittsburgh (9-13), the Jags are NOT in the same class as either Tenny or Pittsburgh who combined have a W/L record of 24-6 this year.

In the big picture the Jags enter this tilt wanting to just "Get it over with" while the Ravens will be playing for keeps, look for the Jag RB's to run out of bounds to avoid getting hit and look for Jag recievers to drop plenty of balls...after all, these Jags have nowhere to go but home and/or on vacation and they want to do so HEALTHY and without injury...

KEY STATS:

As mentioned above, Baltimore has not allowed more than 13 points in any home outing this year and on average is only allowing 10.43 points per game to their visiting opponents, meanwhile, the Ravens have scored 24 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games this year...my projected score is Baltimore 27-10.
_____________________________________________________________

Take care and be well my friends

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

Here I sit on a Wednesday morning which oh-by-the-way is Christmas Eve, but there is a method to my madness as I want to finalize this weeks selections and make my wagers on those affairs while the public is distracted wrapping presents and spreading holiday cheer...

...then I will pull the ole role reversal on "Joe Public" because while they are fat, dumb, and happy heading into the weekend trying to make their selections I will be kicking back, watching games and boozing it up (just kidding but I will partake of a few adult beverages for sure!).

Needless to say this will in all likelihood be my final selection for this week, but hey you never know...so stay tuned.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
_____________________________________________________________

BUFFALO +6.5 over New England
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________

The odds maker opened the line on this contest with public favorite New England laying between -6 and -6.5 road points and opened the O/U line up between 43 and 43.5 depending on where you looked, the line has remained the same thus far but by game time we might see the side rise to New England -7...

...I really don't know if the line will rise to a full -7 or not as I fully expect the sharps to bang the number downward, then closer to game time I would expect to see the public bang the number back upwards.

As for me, I think New England laying this kind of wood on the road to a divisional rival is crazy and if the truth be told I really wouldn't be all that surprised if the home town Bills do the unthinkable by pulling off the upset over the much hated visiting Patriots...

These two AFC East divisional rivals have fought tooth and nail against each other for years and thusly know each other well, however, its been the Patriots that have had the upper hand in this series over the past few years as evidenced by New England's mark of 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Buffalo...

...New England has also won an absurd 7 of 8 games straight up against Buffalo in Buffalo and that includes the Patriots HUGE 56-10 win over the Bills in Buffalo last year...

....ahhhhhh but here is the dirty little secret, TOM BRADY was the New England QB in those affairs, this time around New England visits the "Queen City" with Matt Cassel under center making his first career start in a must-win game if the Patriots want to keep their playoff hopes alive.

I backed Buffalo each of the past two weeks and they did not disappoint me as I cashed both tickets and in each case these Bills were receiving mega points (+6.5 at Denver and +7.5 at the Jets), so why hop off the ole gravy train now?

New England won the first meeting this year in Foxboro by the final score of 20-10 back on November 9th as a 3.5 point home favorite, simple logic dictates that if Buffalo was being spotted +3.5 at New England that this rematch in Buffalo should be a pick'em affair...

...even if we were adjust the line by 2 points to compensate for New England posting a mark of 4-2 straight up versus Buffalo's 2-4 straight up mark since these two teams last met, the line would be New England -2...

...if we would then further adjust the line by another 2 points as a means of compensating for this being a "must win" for New England, we STILL only come up with a line of New England -4 which means that we are getting 2.5 points of sheer value from the start with the home team.

A look see of who has played who lately reveals that New England has played three straight games against "Cupcake competition"...

...the public witnessed New England blowing out Arizona last week by the final of 47-7 and they witnessed New England blowing out Oakland 49-26 the week prior, however, let's keep this real my friends as New England's last three wins were over Arizona, Oakland, and Seattle and these three teams have a combined W/L record to date of 16-29.

Meanwhile, the home town Bills in this contest have faced Denver, the Jets, and Miami in their last three contests, these three opponents have tallied a combined record of 27-18 thus far.

In the end analysis Buffalo wants a little "Payback" this year for Brady and company visiting the Queen City last year and thumping the home town Bills by the final of 56-10 and they may just get that revenge as this time around its Cassel under center and NOT Brady...

...this time around the beat up Patriot defense is showing their age in allowing 26 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games, this time around the Patriot offensive line isn't what it has been in years past as they have allowed 44 sacks to date which ranks them 28th in the league.

I'll take my chances with the revenge minded home divisional doggie in this contest that is getting wayyyyyy too many points when considering the fact that they are still playing hard and figure to continue to do so in their final home game of the year...

...over a hated divisional rival that will be led into this MUST WIN do or die battle by a virtually untested back up QB, as a side note I would be willing to wager that Cassel turns the ball over at least twice and probably more.
_____________________________________________________________

RECAP OF PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:


MIAMI +3 over Jets
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
5*****BEST BET


HOUSTON -1 over Chicago
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET


BALTIMORE -12.5 over Jacksonville
Sunday 12/28/08 4:15 pm est
3***Play Selection


BUFFALO +6.5 over New England
Sunday 12/28/08 1:00 pm est
3***Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________


Take care and be well my friends....MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[C-Gold]

I like fading the " need to win teams" at this point in the year. Buffalo/Houston fit that bill. You might take a look at the Giants getting nearly a TD as well as you don't seem affraid to fade those teams.

I also like Miami/Dallas and agree with your Miami Logic.

Did you see Houston at home a few weeks ago vs Tennesse? In genral, I think Kubiak knows how to attack the cover 2, and all that misdirection could use the Bears speed against them. I'd like to get Houston more like -1, like you did, but -2.5 should work too.

Nice work

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Man that Jets game just looks too damn easy, makes me nervous!!

After last night I think we got a good look of " Bein Conservative " this is such a dangerous week. Teams pullin off fake FG's , Fake Punts etc. but there are a few diamonds in the rough. Im watchin for the Eagles to toss in a clunker too especially after TB wins early GL , look forward to see whatcha like and so far Im with ya :toast:
<!-- / message -->

:howdy:Hello Twisted_One...

Its all about "Public Perception" my friend and that is never more true-er than in this final week of the regular season, the New York "Bretts" are still a very public team that is led by a guy that John Madden has had a man crush on for years...none other than Bretttt FAVre (just me doing my best Madden impersonation).

The Phins finished the 2007 regular season with a mark of 1-15 which was BY FAR their worst ever finish and the Fish finished the 2006 season with a mark of 6-10, that's a combined regular season record of 7-25 for Miami over the past two years...

...yet over the past two seasons when Miami visited the Jets in the Jersey Meadowlands they only recieved +3 and +2.5 points, the end result in each case was a FG win for the home town Jersey Jets by finals of 31-28 and 20-17.

In certain cases the odds maker will point us as handicappers in the right direction with regard to WHICH team he likes to win the game, yet that same odds maker has to walk the proverbial tight rope with regard to public perception.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[Steiner69eR]

On Houston too....like it alot! Last year they gave it all they had to finish 8-8, see the same here

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

I like fading the " need to win teams" at this point in the year. Buffalo/Houston fit that bill. You might take a look at the Giants getting nearly a TD as well as you don't seem affraid to fade those teams.

I also like Miami/Dallas and agree with your Miami Logic.

:howdy:Hello C-Gold...

This is DEFINATELY the time of the year in which a good handicapper has to take a good long look-see at the doggie in each match up first as the lines placed on week 17 contests year in and year out are usually shaded towards the doggie...

...if you like a favorite that "Needs to win" this time of the year, you have to accept the fact that you are going to pay a premium for the right to wager on that team.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:smoker2:

 

[billbeater]

good scenario breakdown Dog!

really feel strongly that Farvey will win his last game..... then hopefully no bullshit all year about coming back
hno:

big game for new england, cheat-a-check is very good in those!!! bills crowd should be weak or alot will attend with free tickets?... but they got their big win last week in denver and pats should pull it off

 

[ThEjAcK]

very nice write ups including your input on the games.. Wasn't considering those games till now..
Good Luck This Weekend :toast:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

Below is the Early Weather Report for Sunday's games..

Take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:

<CENTER>National Football League Weather

</CENTER><CENTER>Sunday, December 28th

</CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 20. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:15 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Winds blowing from the West at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Chicago Bears at Houston Texans, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, 4:15 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 15-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain and snow. Winds blowing from the West at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, 4:15 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Winds blowing from the West at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, 1:00 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain and snow. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 20-25 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Winds blowing from the South at 0-5 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TH class=TSN2 bgColor=#ccccdd>Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers, 8:15 p.m.</TH></TR><TR><TD class=TSN1>

Clear. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Betallsports]

Just want to say, Thanks for the time you take out doing this.

BOL !


........................................................................................................
FREE CONTEST
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=646726

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

On Houston too....like it alot! Last year they gave it all they had to finish 8-8, see the same here

%^_Hello Steiner69eR...

Yeah I LOVE Houston in this spot, I just can't see da'Bears getting it up emotionally after playing two back to back OT games at home and now taking to the road on a short week...

...as a side note Texan head coach Gary Kubiak grew up in the Houston area and went to St Pius HS where he was a QB, Kubiak was inducted into the Texas high school hall of fame in 1999, needless to say this guy REALLY wants to win for the home crowd...

This is Kubiak's third season with the Texans and oddly enough this is the third straight season that Houston will close out their season at home, a check backwards in time shows that the Texans are 2-0 straight up and ATS in home finales since Kubiak took over, meanwhile, Chi-Town is 1-4-1 ATS over the past 6 years in their final road game.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:smoker2: