:howdy:
Hello my friends...
I am shooting in my Week #16 "BEST BET" now before the line has a chance to move on me, the rest of my play selections will be posted as I complete the handicapping of them and will be listed in order of priority with regard to what the current line is versus how/or if I believe the movement will affect the game I am interested in.
_____________________________________________________________
ST LOUIS +5 over San Francisco
Sunday 12/21/08 1:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________
The posted line on this contest opened with the hometown Lambs installed as +5.5 point home doggies but has since dropped to +5 and I really wouldn't be surprised to see the final line close at +4 once the sharps finish banging this number downward.
The Niners have been media darlings under probable new HC Mike Singletary and deservingly so as they had won 3 of 4 outings in straight up fashion prior to their game at Miami last Sunday and in the end gave the Phins all they wanted before falling by the final score of 9-14 as 6 point road doggies.
One of those Niner wins came at the expense of these Lambs when they locked horns back on November 16th, when the final gun sounded the home town Niners had won the game by the final of 35-16 as 7 point home favorites...
...yes it was a 19 point Niner win on the scoreboard, however, if you were to review the stats from that affair without knowing the final score you would have concluded that the Lambs had won the contest as St Louis had more first downs 22-19, won the yardage war 406 to 339, and won the TOP (time of possession) battle 31:44 to 28:16.
The Lambs committed three turnovers which proved costly at key times in the game, however, the Niners turned the ball over twice themselves. The REAL difference in that game was the fact that the Lambs couldn't punch the ball into the endzone as they had four FG attempts with three made versus the Niners ZERO attempts.
In the first meeting between these teams earlier this year the hometown Niners were installed as 7 point home favorites...
....based on that earlier point spread between these two rivals simple logic dictates that the point spread should have the Niners as a small road favorite of somewhere between -1 and -2...but certainly NOT -5.
...A peek into the ole history book reveals that the last two times these Niners visited St Louis THEY were the doggies with these Lambs spotting them 3 and 4.5 points.
Look for the table's to be turned in this contest, in the first meeting the Lambs were a "Road Weary" bunch that were on the road again for the second straight week after playing the Jets in the Meadowlands the previous week...
...a check further backward in time reveals that the NFL scheduler REALLY screwed the Lambs because when the Lambs played the Niners in the first go-around the affair took place on the West Coast in San Francisco and the Lambs were actually playing their 4th road game in a 6 week span and THREE of those four road games took place on the East Coast (at Washington, at New England, at Jets)...
...Its hard to fault the Lambs for falling short in that first meeting against the Niners in my humble opinion, but even so...the Lambs dominated the stat wars as layed out above.
In this meeting the proverbial "worm will turn" as the shoe is on the other foot as it is the Niners, who enter this tilt on the road for the second straight week and are fresh off a trip to the deep south in Miami and are actually playing on the road AGAIN for the 5th time in a 7 week span with two of those road games taking place on the East Coast (at Buffalo, at Miami).
The Lambs held a 17-7 half time lead in their home game last week against Seattle but couldn't hold on as the Hawks stormed back and won the contest by the final of 23-20, this is St Louis's final home game of the season and Lamb HC Jim Haslett wants to retain his horns....
....look for a spirited effort and a possible UPSET in this contest as the Lambs have shown some spunk in their last two home games against Seattle (20-23 loss) as a 2.5 point home dog and against Miami (12-16 loss) as a 7.5 point home doggie.
Take care and be well my friends
Jim
:wink:
Hello my friends...
I am shooting in my Week #16 "BEST BET" now before the line has a chance to move on me, the rest of my play selections will be posted as I complete the handicapping of them and will be listed in order of priority with regard to what the current line is versus how/or if I believe the movement will affect the game I am interested in.
_____________________________________________________________
ST LOUIS +5 over San Francisco
Sunday 12/21/08 1:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________
The posted line on this contest opened with the hometown Lambs installed as +5.5 point home doggies but has since dropped to +5 and I really wouldn't be surprised to see the final line close at +4 once the sharps finish banging this number downward.
The Niners have been media darlings under probable new HC Mike Singletary and deservingly so as they had won 3 of 4 outings in straight up fashion prior to their game at Miami last Sunday and in the end gave the Phins all they wanted before falling by the final score of 9-14 as 6 point road doggies.
One of those Niner wins came at the expense of these Lambs when they locked horns back on November 16th, when the final gun sounded the home town Niners had won the game by the final of 35-16 as 7 point home favorites...
...yes it was a 19 point Niner win on the scoreboard, however, if you were to review the stats from that affair without knowing the final score you would have concluded that the Lambs had won the contest as St Louis had more first downs 22-19, won the yardage war 406 to 339, and won the TOP (time of possession) battle 31:44 to 28:16.
The Lambs committed three turnovers which proved costly at key times in the game, however, the Niners turned the ball over twice themselves. The REAL difference in that game was the fact that the Lambs couldn't punch the ball into the endzone as they had four FG attempts with three made versus the Niners ZERO attempts.
In the first meeting between these teams earlier this year the hometown Niners were installed as 7 point home favorites...
....based on that earlier point spread between these two rivals simple logic dictates that the point spread should have the Niners as a small road favorite of somewhere between -1 and -2...but certainly NOT -5.
...A peek into the ole history book reveals that the last two times these Niners visited St Louis THEY were the doggies with these Lambs spotting them 3 and 4.5 points.
Look for the table's to be turned in this contest, in the first meeting the Lambs were a "Road Weary" bunch that were on the road again for the second straight week after playing the Jets in the Meadowlands the previous week...
...a check further backward in time reveals that the NFL scheduler REALLY screwed the Lambs because when the Lambs played the Niners in the first go-around the affair took place on the West Coast in San Francisco and the Lambs were actually playing their 4th road game in a 6 week span and THREE of those four road games took place on the East Coast (at Washington, at New England, at Jets)...
...Its hard to fault the Lambs for falling short in that first meeting against the Niners in my humble opinion, but even so...the Lambs dominated the stat wars as layed out above.
In this meeting the proverbial "worm will turn" as the shoe is on the other foot as it is the Niners, who enter this tilt on the road for the second straight week and are fresh off a trip to the deep south in Miami and are actually playing on the road AGAIN for the 5th time in a 7 week span with two of those road games taking place on the East Coast (at Buffalo, at Miami).
The Lambs held a 17-7 half time lead in their home game last week against Seattle but couldn't hold on as the Hawks stormed back and won the contest by the final of 23-20, this is St Louis's final home game of the season and Lamb HC Jim Haslett wants to retain his horns....
....look for a spirited effort and a possible UPSET in this contest as the Lambs have shown some spunk in their last two home games against Seattle (20-23 loss) as a 2.5 point home dog and against Miami (12-16 loss) as a 7.5 point home doggie.
Take care and be well my friends
Jim
:wink:
