%^_Hello my friends
I was out of town with my beautiful wife visiting family for the holidays and didn't get back home until last night, hence the reason I didn't post any selections or analysis for the college or NFL Wildcard games that took place on Saturday...
...as a side note I did wager on the games and collected on 3 of my 4 wagers as Uconn thumped Buffalo in the days early college game and in the NFL Arizona -1 and OVER 51 won for me while Indy -1 was a loser.
I am not one to cry over spilled milk, however, with that being said it sure looked like the refs were trying to make it up to San Diego for Ed Hochuli's earlier gaff which cost the Bolts a win over Denver...
...the back to back to back penalties called on the Colts coming down the stretch in OT were indeed penalties but for the most part they were not nearly as blatant as some of the ones the refs DID NOT call on the Bolts thru out the contest as San Diego appeared to hold Dwight Freeney on virtually every down and there were several pass interference penalties not called on the Chargers.
Of the two Wildcard games taking place on Sunday I think the home town doggie Dolphins getting +3.5 is a no brainer, the line of the Minny-Eagles game is currently Vikes +3 and if that line moves to Minny +3.5 I will probably make a small 2 unit play on the Vikes as well.
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MIAMI +3.5 over Baltimore
Sunday 01/04/09 1:00 pm est
4****BEST BET
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The line on this affair opened with the visiting Ravens installed as 3 point road favorites with an O/U of 37 and is currently Baltimore -3.5 and 38, needless to say "Joe Public" is all over the Ravens and the OVER in this contest...
...afterall, the public has been getting bombarded by the media talking heads about how great the Raven defense is and how great the Raven running game is and how great Raven QB Joe Flacco has played this year and how the Ravens dominated the Dolphins in the earlier meeting this year on this same field...blah blah blah.
In the big picture the Ravens and Dolphins are pretty much equal at this stage of the season in my humble opinion, both teams enter this contest with records of 11-5 straight up and their schedules were remarkably similar...
...the media pundits have been busy espousing the virtues of the Ravens and how "hard" their schedule has been versus the schedule that Miami played this season, my response to that is REALLY?
If the truth be known, Baltimore hails from the once formidable AFC North, however, only Baltimore and Pittsburgh had winning records out of that division this year while the two other AFC North residents (Cleveland 4-12 and Cincy 4-11-1) produced a combined record of 8-23-1 straight up...
...Miami hails from the AFC East which produced three winning teams this year (Miami, New England, Jets) and even the cellar dweller in the AFC East which was Buffalo finished with a record of 7-9 straight up.
Both Baltimore and Miami entered this season with new head coaches, however, the Ravens have virtually the same cast of characters (other than QB Joe Flacco) that finished last year with a record of 6-10 straight up, meanwhile, Miami finished last year with a mark of 1-15, oddly enough the Phins only win last year was over...you guessed it...this Baltimore team.
The Fish brought in Bill Parcells to run the organization who in turn brought more than a few buddies from Dallas including Tony Sparano to be his new head coach, the Phins were also lucky enough to snatch up an available Chad Pennington who was kicked to the curb by the Jets when Brett Favvvvvre was signed...
...needless to say it takes time for a whole new coaching staff to mesh with a new roster of players and a new but experienced QB under center, hence the reason that the Fish lost their first two outings of the year which was against the Jets and the Cardinals...
...over their next 14 games these Dolphins lost only three more times and one of those losses was to the Ravens by the final tally of 13-27, entering this Wildcard game the public has been reminded over and over again that Baltimore won the first go around by two TD's on this same field...
...a simple review of the key statistics from the earlier game between these two teams reveals that only ONE first down and TWO yards of total offense separated these teams yet the Ravens won by 14 points with 7 of those points coming by way of a "Pick-6" by Raven LB Terrel Suggs.
Riddle me this...if the odds maker REALLY thought that much of this Raven team, then why were the Ravens installed as doggies in 7 of 8 road games this year including the last time they visited Miami as a 3 point road doggie? Its true, the ONLY road game (besides this one) that the Ravens were installed as favorites in was at Cincy -7.
...regardless of the earlier outcome when these two teams met earlier in the year, ask yourself this.."Has Baltimore progressed THAT much to date to warrant a 6.5 point role reversal from a 3 point road doggie to a 3.5 road favorite against a Dolphin team that finished with an identical 11-5 record for the year"?
A check backwards in time to see who defeated Baltimore and how they did it this season reveals that 3 of the Ravens 5 losses took place on the road (at Pitt 20-23, at Indy 3-31, at Giants 10-30), the Ravens other two losses occurred at home against Tenny 10-13 and against Pitt 9-13...
Pittsburgh's offensive line is terrible as they have allowed an eye opening 49 sacks this year which ranks them #29 in the league, yet they defeated this "great" Raven defense twice, Tenny and Indy both hail from the AFC South and consequently played two of the easiest schedules in the league, yet both the Titans and Colts defeated Baltimore...
...a simple break down of the Ravens five losses reveals that those teams that defeated the Ravens employed a spread style offense and got rid of the ball quickly as a means to off-set the Raven pass rush, meanwhile, defensively those same teams stacked the line of scrimmage to stop the run and forced young rookie QB Joe Flacco to go to the air...
...the result was that Flacco tossed a total of 9 picks in those losses, the dirty little secret is that Baltimore needs to win the T/O (turnover) battle in order to win the war.
I simply don't see the Ravens winning the T/O battle against Miami with Chad Pennington under center, Pennington has only tossed 7 picks all season long and is the battle tested veteran in this contest, look for the Phins to spread the field out and for Pennington to get rid of the ball quickly...
...if the Phins can get the lead on the score board and force young rookie Flacco to throw the ball more than 17 to 20 times then this game could turn into a blow out much the same way both Indy and the Giants blew out these Ravens when they picked Flacco off a combined total of 5 times.
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Take care and be well my friends
Dirtydog
:wink:
I was out of town with my beautiful wife visiting family for the holidays and didn't get back home until last night, hence the reason I didn't post any selections or analysis for the college or NFL Wildcard games that took place on Saturday...
...as a side note I did wager on the games and collected on 3 of my 4 wagers as Uconn thumped Buffalo in the days early college game and in the NFL Arizona -1 and OVER 51 won for me while Indy -1 was a loser.
I am not one to cry over spilled milk, however, with that being said it sure looked like the refs were trying to make it up to San Diego for Ed Hochuli's earlier gaff which cost the Bolts a win over Denver...
...the back to back to back penalties called on the Colts coming down the stretch in OT were indeed penalties but for the most part they were not nearly as blatant as some of the ones the refs DID NOT call on the Bolts thru out the contest as San Diego appeared to hold Dwight Freeney on virtually every down and there were several pass interference penalties not called on the Chargers.
Of the two Wildcard games taking place on Sunday I think the home town doggie Dolphins getting +3.5 is a no brainer, the line of the Minny-Eagles game is currently Vikes +3 and if that line moves to Minny +3.5 I will probably make a small 2 unit play on the Vikes as well.
_____________________________________________________________
MIAMI +3.5 over Baltimore
Sunday 01/04/09 1:00 pm est
4****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________
The line on this affair opened with the visiting Ravens installed as 3 point road favorites with an O/U of 37 and is currently Baltimore -3.5 and 38, needless to say "Joe Public" is all over the Ravens and the OVER in this contest...
...afterall, the public has been getting bombarded by the media talking heads about how great the Raven defense is and how great the Raven running game is and how great Raven QB Joe Flacco has played this year and how the Ravens dominated the Dolphins in the earlier meeting this year on this same field...blah blah blah.
In the big picture the Ravens and Dolphins are pretty much equal at this stage of the season in my humble opinion, both teams enter this contest with records of 11-5 straight up and their schedules were remarkably similar...
...the media pundits have been busy espousing the virtues of the Ravens and how "hard" their schedule has been versus the schedule that Miami played this season, my response to that is REALLY?
If the truth be known, Baltimore hails from the once formidable AFC North, however, only Baltimore and Pittsburgh had winning records out of that division this year while the two other AFC North residents (Cleveland 4-12 and Cincy 4-11-1) produced a combined record of 8-23-1 straight up...
...Miami hails from the AFC East which produced three winning teams this year (Miami, New England, Jets) and even the cellar dweller in the AFC East which was Buffalo finished with a record of 7-9 straight up.
Both Baltimore and Miami entered this season with new head coaches, however, the Ravens have virtually the same cast of characters (other than QB Joe Flacco) that finished last year with a record of 6-10 straight up, meanwhile, Miami finished last year with a mark of 1-15, oddly enough the Phins only win last year was over...you guessed it...this Baltimore team.
The Fish brought in Bill Parcells to run the organization who in turn brought more than a few buddies from Dallas including Tony Sparano to be his new head coach, the Phins were also lucky enough to snatch up an available Chad Pennington who was kicked to the curb by the Jets when Brett Favvvvvre was signed...
...needless to say it takes time for a whole new coaching staff to mesh with a new roster of players and a new but experienced QB under center, hence the reason that the Fish lost their first two outings of the year which was against the Jets and the Cardinals...
...over their next 14 games these Dolphins lost only three more times and one of those losses was to the Ravens by the final tally of 13-27, entering this Wildcard game the public has been reminded over and over again that Baltimore won the first go around by two TD's on this same field...
...a simple review of the key statistics from the earlier game between these two teams reveals that only ONE first down and TWO yards of total offense separated these teams yet the Ravens won by 14 points with 7 of those points coming by way of a "Pick-6" by Raven LB Terrel Suggs.
Riddle me this...if the odds maker REALLY thought that much of this Raven team, then why were the Ravens installed as doggies in 7 of 8 road games this year including the last time they visited Miami as a 3 point road doggie? Its true, the ONLY road game (besides this one) that the Ravens were installed as favorites in was at Cincy -7.
...regardless of the earlier outcome when these two teams met earlier in the year, ask yourself this.."Has Baltimore progressed THAT much to date to warrant a 6.5 point role reversal from a 3 point road doggie to a 3.5 road favorite against a Dolphin team that finished with an identical 11-5 record for the year"?
A check backwards in time to see who defeated Baltimore and how they did it this season reveals that 3 of the Ravens 5 losses took place on the road (at Pitt 20-23, at Indy 3-31, at Giants 10-30), the Ravens other two losses occurred at home against Tenny 10-13 and against Pitt 9-13...
Pittsburgh's offensive line is terrible as they have allowed an eye opening 49 sacks this year which ranks them #29 in the league, yet they defeated this "great" Raven defense twice, Tenny and Indy both hail from the AFC South and consequently played two of the easiest schedules in the league, yet both the Titans and Colts defeated Baltimore...
...a simple break down of the Ravens five losses reveals that those teams that defeated the Ravens employed a spread style offense and got rid of the ball quickly as a means to off-set the Raven pass rush, meanwhile, defensively those same teams stacked the line of scrimmage to stop the run and forced young rookie QB Joe Flacco to go to the air...
...the result was that Flacco tossed a total of 9 picks in those losses, the dirty little secret is that Baltimore needs to win the T/O (turnover) battle in order to win the war.
I simply don't see the Ravens winning the T/O battle against Miami with Chad Pennington under center, Pennington has only tossed 7 picks all season long and is the battle tested veteran in this contest, look for the Phins to spread the field out and for Pennington to get rid of the ball quickly...
...if the Phins can get the lead on the score board and force young rookie Flacco to throw the ball more than 17 to 20 times then this game could turn into a blow out much the same way both Indy and the Giants blew out these Ravens when they picked Flacco off a combined total of 5 times.
_____________________________________________________________
Take care and be well my friends
Dirtydog
:wink:
