:howdy:Hello my friends...
I will be posting my NFL Divisional playoff selections in this same thread, in the Wildcard Round last week I was fortunate enough to post a mark of 1-1 ATS as the Arizona Cardinals came thru for me while the Phins of Miami let me down.
The basis of my selection on Miami was the QB comparison between Chad Pennington of the Phins and Joe Flacco of the Ravens, I was of the mind that turnovers would decide the game and in that regard I was entirely correct...
...the thought process was that Dolphin QB Pennington, who had only tossed 7 INT's all season long would be the stabilizing factor for Miami while the rookie Joe Flacco would invariably cost his team with costly rookie mistakes...
...unfortunately it did not turn out that was as it was Pennington that tossed an eye opening FOUR interceptions and overall the Dolphins turned the ball over FIVE times, needless to say a team is not going to win many games when they constantly gift wrap the ball to the other team.
_____________________________________________________________
TENNESSEE -2.5 over Baltimore
Saturday 01/10/09 4:30 pm est
2**Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________
Depending on where you looked the opening number on this contest was Tennessee -2.5 (with higher juice) to -3 (with plus juice), meanwhile, the opening O/U total was 33.5 to 34 once again depending on where you looked...
...just prior to writing this I grabbed Tenny -2.5 at 5 Dimes (-110), those that have books still showing a solid -3 might want to wait a little longer as the number will surely fall back to -2.5 when considering that approx 65% of America is currently backing the Ravens along with virtually every "talking head" in the media.
...once the "Joe Public" money starts pouring in closer to game time I would venture a guess that the number will fall back to -2 and possibly even -1.5 if enough of the public keeps pounding Baltimore.
Personally, I did not want to take the chance of being wrong with regard to which way the line would move and in the end was very happy to grab the first -2.5 (less than a FG) that I saw.
Oddly enough each of the four NFL Divisional games on the docket this week are rematches of contests that took place earlier this season, the Cardinals are playing AT Carolina again, the Chargers are playing AT Pittsburgh again, and the Eagles are playing AT the Giants again which is where they met the last time they faced one another...
...this contest differs in that when the Titans and Ravens hooked up earlier in the regular season that contest was played in Baltimore, this time around the game will be played in TENNESSEE.
These teams met in Baltimore back on October 5th, at the time the Titans has a record of 4-0 straight up and ATS, meanwhile, Baltimore was fresh off a hard fought MNF game in Pittsburgh which they lost 20-23 in OT and brought a record of 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS into their home game against the visiting Titans...
...the odds maker installed the Baltimore Ravens as slim 1 point home doggies to the visting Titans who in turn ended up winning by a final score of 13-10.
Now this is where things start getting a little out of whack because Tenny finished up as the #1 seed with a regular season mark of 13-3 straight up (12-4 ATS) and that includes a record of 7-1 straight up and ATS at home...
...meanwhile, Baltimore ended up finishing the regular season with a record of 11-5 straight up (12-4 ATS)...
Let's think about this a moment, with all things being equal (and these teams records certainly are equal), shouldn't Baltimore be a 7 point road doggie this week at Tennessee?
Simple math tells us that if the Ravens were a 1 point home doggie to Tennessee and LOST that game and a rematch was played down the line in the same season, then a home field reversal of 6 points would be applied and thusly we would have Tenny as a 7 point favorite....right?
Ahhhh but that's not the case as the situation is now clouded by public perception, "Joe Public" has been told that Baltimore is the "hotter team" entering this affair as they have won 3 straight including their win over the Phins in Miami last week while the Titans have lost two of their last three outings...
...its true that Tenny lost their regular season finale AT Indianapolis but in truth the Titans had nothing to play for as they had wrapped up the #1 seed the week prior by defeating Pittsburgh 31-14...
...personally I think Titan head coach Jeff Fisher not only rested players on purpose against the Colts in that season finale but also played most of his 2nd and 3rd stringers utilizing vanilla offensive and defensive schemes as a means of letting the Colts, with head coach Tony Dungy, enter the playoffs as a "thank you" for Dungy doing the same thing for the Titans the year prior.
I saw a write up somewhere on this contest where someone was picking the Ravens to win and cover this week at Tennessee, in their analysis they stated that the "Titans were 0-4 ATS as a home favorite versus Baltimore since 1998"...really? Give me a break!!
Anyone that has followed the NFL over the years knows that prior to the realignment these two teams played in the same division (AFC Central) along with Jacksonville, Cleveland, Cincy, and Pittsburgh...
...hell's fire why not just say that Baltimore is 4-1 straight up in their last five visits to Tennessee or for that matter why not say that Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 visits to Tennessee?
The truth of the matter is that these two teams now reside in DIFFERENT divisions and do not face each other twice a season like they used too once upon a time, henceforth, those stats are old and out-dated...
...as a matter of fact these two teams have only faced each other twice in Tennessee since the realignment and they SPLIT those affairs straight up but the Titans won both match ups ATS, the last time they met in Nashville was on 11/12/06 with Tenny installed as a 7 point home dog, the result was a close 27-26 Raven win...
...they also met in Nashville back on 9/18/05 when Baltimore was installed as a 3.5 point road favorite only to lose to the home town Titans by the final of 25-10, you would then have to go back 7 1/2 years to find another meeting between these teams in Titan-land.
Here's a simple truth for you which is ALOT more current than that bullshit stat going back to 1998...the Titans have defeated the Ravens 3 of the last 4 times they have met with each of these meetings taking place since 2004.
Here's another simple truth, the Ravens have lost five games this year, twice to Pittsburgh, once to Indianapolis, once to the Giants, and once to Tennessee and three of those five losses took place on the road against playoff teams which is where the Ravens are this week...
Tennessee is 8-1 straight up in their last nine home games and that includes a pretty convincing 31-14 home win over the same Pittsburgh Steeler team that defeated this Baltimore team TWICE this season...
...the Ravens are playing on the road again for the second straight week and are actually on the road again for the 3rd time in a 4 week span, meanwhile, Tennessee is well rested and has had a week off to heal up and scheme on how best to pull the ole rug out from under the Ravens again.
The talking heads in the media have been espousing how "Great" and how "Poised" Joe Flacco was last week in his first playoff game at Miami, did any of them happen to take a look at the final stat sheet from that game?...
...Flacco completed a TERRIBLE 9 of 23 passes which is a completion rate of 39.9% for a measly 135 yards for goodness sakes!! I can't wait to see his final stat sheet from this contest if the Titans get ahead on the scoreboard and force him to complete a few passes under pressure.
I am aware that Titan center Kevin Mawae is out for this contest, however, other than Mawae this is still the same Titan offensive line that allowed a league low 12 sacks during the regular season, meanwhile, the Raven offensive line allowed 34 sacks over the same span which is roughly three times the amount of QB take downs...
...meaning that the well rested Titan defense should have more luck getting to Raven rookie Joe Flacco than visa versa, in end analysis I'll take my chances with veteran QB Kerry Collins under center playing at home over the visiting rookie QB Joe Flacco.
KEY STAT:
I agree that this will indeed by a close hard fought battle between the Titans and the Ravens, if that is the case then you gotta love the fact that the Titans are 4-1 straight up including a mark of 2-0 straight up at home in games decided by 7 points or less...
...meanwhile, the visiting Ravens are 1-3 straight up this year in games decided by 7 points or less.
_____________________________________________________________
Take care and be well my friends
Dirtydog
:wink::wink:
I will be posting my NFL Divisional playoff selections in this same thread, in the Wildcard Round last week I was fortunate enough to post a mark of 1-1 ATS as the Arizona Cardinals came thru for me while the Phins of Miami let me down.
The basis of my selection on Miami was the QB comparison between Chad Pennington of the Phins and Joe Flacco of the Ravens, I was of the mind that turnovers would decide the game and in that regard I was entirely correct...
...the thought process was that Dolphin QB Pennington, who had only tossed 7 INT's all season long would be the stabilizing factor for Miami while the rookie Joe Flacco would invariably cost his team with costly rookie mistakes...
...unfortunately it did not turn out that was as it was Pennington that tossed an eye opening FOUR interceptions and overall the Dolphins turned the ball over FIVE times, needless to say a team is not going to win many games when they constantly gift wrap the ball to the other team.
_____________________________________________________________
TENNESSEE -2.5 over Baltimore
Saturday 01/10/09 4:30 pm est
2**Play Selection
_____________________________________________________________
Depending on where you looked the opening number on this contest was Tennessee -2.5 (with higher juice) to -3 (with plus juice), meanwhile, the opening O/U total was 33.5 to 34 once again depending on where you looked...
...just prior to writing this I grabbed Tenny -2.5 at 5 Dimes (-110), those that have books still showing a solid -3 might want to wait a little longer as the number will surely fall back to -2.5 when considering that approx 65% of America is currently backing the Ravens along with virtually every "talking head" in the media.
...once the "Joe Public" money starts pouring in closer to game time I would venture a guess that the number will fall back to -2 and possibly even -1.5 if enough of the public keeps pounding Baltimore.
Personally, I did not want to take the chance of being wrong with regard to which way the line would move and in the end was very happy to grab the first -2.5 (less than a FG) that I saw.
Oddly enough each of the four NFL Divisional games on the docket this week are rematches of contests that took place earlier this season, the Cardinals are playing AT Carolina again, the Chargers are playing AT Pittsburgh again, and the Eagles are playing AT the Giants again which is where they met the last time they faced one another...
...this contest differs in that when the Titans and Ravens hooked up earlier in the regular season that contest was played in Baltimore, this time around the game will be played in TENNESSEE.
These teams met in Baltimore back on October 5th, at the time the Titans has a record of 4-0 straight up and ATS, meanwhile, Baltimore was fresh off a hard fought MNF game in Pittsburgh which they lost 20-23 in OT and brought a record of 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS into their home game against the visiting Titans...
...the odds maker installed the Baltimore Ravens as slim 1 point home doggies to the visting Titans who in turn ended up winning by a final score of 13-10.
Now this is where things start getting a little out of whack because Tenny finished up as the #1 seed with a regular season mark of 13-3 straight up (12-4 ATS) and that includes a record of 7-1 straight up and ATS at home...
...meanwhile, Baltimore ended up finishing the regular season with a record of 11-5 straight up (12-4 ATS)...
Let's think about this a moment, with all things being equal (and these teams records certainly are equal), shouldn't Baltimore be a 7 point road doggie this week at Tennessee?
Simple math tells us that if the Ravens were a 1 point home doggie to Tennessee and LOST that game and a rematch was played down the line in the same season, then a home field reversal of 6 points would be applied and thusly we would have Tenny as a 7 point favorite....right?
Ahhhh but that's not the case as the situation is now clouded by public perception, "Joe Public" has been told that Baltimore is the "hotter team" entering this affair as they have won 3 straight including their win over the Phins in Miami last week while the Titans have lost two of their last three outings...
...its true that Tenny lost their regular season finale AT Indianapolis but in truth the Titans had nothing to play for as they had wrapped up the #1 seed the week prior by defeating Pittsburgh 31-14...
...personally I think Titan head coach Jeff Fisher not only rested players on purpose against the Colts in that season finale but also played most of his 2nd and 3rd stringers utilizing vanilla offensive and defensive schemes as a means of letting the Colts, with head coach Tony Dungy, enter the playoffs as a "thank you" for Dungy doing the same thing for the Titans the year prior.
I saw a write up somewhere on this contest where someone was picking the Ravens to win and cover this week at Tennessee, in their analysis they stated that the "Titans were 0-4 ATS as a home favorite versus Baltimore since 1998"...really? Give me a break!!
Anyone that has followed the NFL over the years knows that prior to the realignment these two teams played in the same division (AFC Central) along with Jacksonville, Cleveland, Cincy, and Pittsburgh...
...hell's fire why not just say that Baltimore is 4-1 straight up in their last five visits to Tennessee or for that matter why not say that Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 visits to Tennessee?
The truth of the matter is that these two teams now reside in DIFFERENT divisions and do not face each other twice a season like they used too once upon a time, henceforth, those stats are old and out-dated...
...as a matter of fact these two teams have only faced each other twice in Tennessee since the realignment and they SPLIT those affairs straight up but the Titans won both match ups ATS, the last time they met in Nashville was on 11/12/06 with Tenny installed as a 7 point home dog, the result was a close 27-26 Raven win...
...they also met in Nashville back on 9/18/05 when Baltimore was installed as a 3.5 point road favorite only to lose to the home town Titans by the final of 25-10, you would then have to go back 7 1/2 years to find another meeting between these teams in Titan-land.
Here's a simple truth for you which is ALOT more current than that bullshit stat going back to 1998...the Titans have defeated the Ravens 3 of the last 4 times they have met with each of these meetings taking place since 2004.
Here's another simple truth, the Ravens have lost five games this year, twice to Pittsburgh, once to Indianapolis, once to the Giants, and once to Tennessee and three of those five losses took place on the road against playoff teams which is where the Ravens are this week...
Tennessee is 8-1 straight up in their last nine home games and that includes a pretty convincing 31-14 home win over the same Pittsburgh Steeler team that defeated this Baltimore team TWICE this season...
...the Ravens are playing on the road again for the second straight week and are actually on the road again for the 3rd time in a 4 week span, meanwhile, Tennessee is well rested and has had a week off to heal up and scheme on how best to pull the ole rug out from under the Ravens again.
The talking heads in the media have been espousing how "Great" and how "Poised" Joe Flacco was last week in his first playoff game at Miami, did any of them happen to take a look at the final stat sheet from that game?...
...Flacco completed a TERRIBLE 9 of 23 passes which is a completion rate of 39.9% for a measly 135 yards for goodness sakes!! I can't wait to see his final stat sheet from this contest if the Titans get ahead on the scoreboard and force him to complete a few passes under pressure.
I am aware that Titan center Kevin Mawae is out for this contest, however, other than Mawae this is still the same Titan offensive line that allowed a league low 12 sacks during the regular season, meanwhile, the Raven offensive line allowed 34 sacks over the same span which is roughly three times the amount of QB take downs...
...meaning that the well rested Titan defense should have more luck getting to Raven rookie Joe Flacco than visa versa, in end analysis I'll take my chances with veteran QB Kerry Collins under center playing at home over the visiting rookie QB Joe Flacco.
KEY STAT:
I agree that this will indeed by a close hard fought battle between the Titans and the Ravens, if that is the case then you gotta love the fact that the Titans are 4-1 straight up including a mark of 2-0 straight up at home in games decided by 7 points or less...
...meanwhile, the visiting Ravens are 1-3 straight up this year in games decided by 7 points or less.
_____________________________________________________________
Take care and be well my friends
Dirtydog
:wink::wink:
