Hello my friends..
This is my first post all season and I do appologize, I've had alot on my plate this year with regard to starting a new freight brokerage firm and simply haven't had the time to do any write-ups...but that doesn't mean that I quit handicapping as I have had a pretty good year thus far in both college and pro. Things are settling down now a little now so I should have time to do some write-ups on the Playoffs and Bowl games this year.
Jim
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***PARLAY***
Carolina -3 and OVER 39
Monday NIght Football
2**Play Selecton
_____________________________________________________________
This Monday Night contest is quite paradoxical when studying the past games played between these two divisional rivals. First and foremost everyone knows that there is a wealth of history to look at when divisional rivals meet because they face each other at least twice yearly.
What I like to do when studying the second same season meeting between divisional rivals is to first of all take a look backward in time and see if there is any correlation between the exact opposite taking place.
For example, does past history show that these two rivals usually have a seasonal split straight up or ATS?...or if the first meeting came in UNDER the total, how (historically speaking) did the second same season meeting end up?
Oddly enough Tampa Bay and Carolina have had a seasonal split the past five straight years with regard to the O/U, the first meeting this year was won by the Bucs in Tampa by the final of 27-3 (Tampa -1.5 and O/U was 37)...does this mean that we should blindly play the OVER 39 in this meeting based on these teams splitting the O/U for the past five straight years?
No it doesn't, the reason why is because 4 of 5 OVERS occurred in games played at Tampa while 4 of 5 UNDERS occurred in games played at Carolina, as a matter of fact 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have come in UNDER the total when they have played the game in Charlotte including the past two straight and historically 11 of the past 16 games between these teams have been UNDERS...ugh..what to do?
Should we blindly play Carolina -3 (with the increased -118 to 121 depending on where you look) or should we wait until the number moves to Carolina -3.5?
Afterall Carolina is in "revenge mode" after taking one on the chin in their first meeting versus Tampa this year and history tells us that these Panthers are 6-2 straight up and ATS in their last 8 revengers and are also 7-1 straight up in their last 8 when installed as a favorite.
Ahhhh, that's where we find another interesting paradox as Carolina has posted a mark of 7-3 straight up and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 against Tampa..but..the dirty little secret is that Carolina is only 4-4 straight up and 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games when the Bucs come to Charlotte.
What to do??
Personally I don't think its prudent to lay the increased juice on Carolina in order to get the -3, however, on the flip side of things I really do not want Tampa only getting 3 or 3.5 and especially since I know they have shown a propensity of faltering when coming down the provervial seasonal stretch as evidenced by their 3-7 straight up mark in their last 10 December outings.
I think the way to attack this game is by taking the Panthers -3 and taking the game OVER 39, by putting the Panthers in a parlay we will in effect be getting the key number of 3 now (before it moves to -3.5) and will be off-setting the increased juice by using them in a parlay.
Closing out the parlay with the OVER 39 is the way to go in my humble opinion because I believe both teams will gear up to stop the opposing run game which will force each team to the air and by doing so once again make history a very good indicator as these two teams split the O/U again for the sixth straight year.
KEY STATS:
These Panthers have won 7 of their last 10 games in straight up fashion when the posted total is between 35.5 and 42 and this Carolina team has covered an amazing
21 of their past 23 contests ATS when they win straight up at home against a divisional rival.
Take care and be well my friends
Jim
This is my first post all season and I do appologize, I've had alot on my plate this year with regard to starting a new freight brokerage firm and simply haven't had the time to do any write-ups...but that doesn't mean that I quit handicapping as I have had a pretty good year thus far in both college and pro. Things are settling down now a little now so I should have time to do some write-ups on the Playoffs and Bowl games this year.
Jim
_____________________________________________________________
***PARLAY***
Carolina -3 and OVER 39
Monday NIght Football
2**Play Selecton
_____________________________________________________________
This Monday Night contest is quite paradoxical when studying the past games played between these two divisional rivals. First and foremost everyone knows that there is a wealth of history to look at when divisional rivals meet because they face each other at least twice yearly.
What I like to do when studying the second same season meeting between divisional rivals is to first of all take a look backward in time and see if there is any correlation between the exact opposite taking place.
For example, does past history show that these two rivals usually have a seasonal split straight up or ATS?...or if the first meeting came in UNDER the total, how (historically speaking) did the second same season meeting end up?
Oddly enough Tampa Bay and Carolina have had a seasonal split the past five straight years with regard to the O/U, the first meeting this year was won by the Bucs in Tampa by the final of 27-3 (Tampa -1.5 and O/U was 37)...does this mean that we should blindly play the OVER 39 in this meeting based on these teams splitting the O/U for the past five straight years?
No it doesn't, the reason why is because 4 of 5 OVERS occurred in games played at Tampa while 4 of 5 UNDERS occurred in games played at Carolina, as a matter of fact 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have come in UNDER the total when they have played the game in Charlotte including the past two straight and historically 11 of the past 16 games between these teams have been UNDERS...ugh..what to do?
Should we blindly play Carolina -3 (with the increased -118 to 121 depending on where you look) or should we wait until the number moves to Carolina -3.5?
Afterall Carolina is in "revenge mode" after taking one on the chin in their first meeting versus Tampa this year and history tells us that these Panthers are 6-2 straight up and ATS in their last 8 revengers and are also 7-1 straight up in their last 8 when installed as a favorite.
Ahhhh, that's where we find another interesting paradox as Carolina has posted a mark of 7-3 straight up and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 against Tampa..but..the dirty little secret is that Carolina is only 4-4 straight up and 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games when the Bucs come to Charlotte.
What to do??
Personally I don't think its prudent to lay the increased juice on Carolina in order to get the -3, however, on the flip side of things I really do not want Tampa only getting 3 or 3.5 and especially since I know they have shown a propensity of faltering when coming down the provervial seasonal stretch as evidenced by their 3-7 straight up mark in their last 10 December outings.
I think the way to attack this game is by taking the Panthers -3 and taking the game OVER 39, by putting the Panthers in a parlay we will in effect be getting the key number of 3 now (before it moves to -3.5) and will be off-setting the increased juice by using them in a parlay.
Closing out the parlay with the OVER 39 is the way to go in my humble opinion because I believe both teams will gear up to stop the opposing run game which will force each team to the air and by doing so once again make history a very good indicator as these two teams split the O/U again for the sixth straight year.
KEY STATS:
These Panthers have won 7 of their last 10 games in straight up fashion when the posted total is between 35.5 and 42 and this Carolina team has covered an amazing
21 of their past 23 contests ATS when they win straight up at home against a divisional rival.Take care and be well my friends
Jim
