DIRTYDOG's AFC & NFC Championship round selections with analysis.....Good Luck!!

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

I was fortunate enough to post a nice 2-0 ATS mark last week in the Divisional playoffs including a nice 5*****Best Bet winner on the Pittsburgh Steelers which gives me a record of 4-2 ATS in playoff action to date.

As usual I will be posting my playoff selections for this week (which is the AFC-NFC Championship round) in this thread along with any additional info such as the latest weather and injury reports...
_____________________________________________________________

ARIZONA +3.5 over Philly
Sunday 01/18/09 3:00 pm est
5*****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________

The line on this contest opened up with the home town Arizona Cardinals installed as 3 point home doggies (with plus juice) but has since moved to Arizona +3.5, meanwhile, the O/U total opened at 49.5 but was almost immediately bet downward to 48 at most outs and as low as 47.5 at a couple of shops.

I backed these Cardinals with a 3***Play Selection rating in their contest at Carolina last week and will back them once again this week against a road weary Eagle team that is fresh off a huge emotional win over their hated divisional rival New York Giants.

I say "Road Weary" because in this contest the Eagles will be playing their 3rd straight road game, will be on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in 5 weeks, and will be on the road AGAIN for the 5th time in a 7 week span...can you say "Road Weary"?

Its true that the Philadelphia Eagles did not have far to travel last week in their short little 93 mile jaunt to the Meadowlands which cultimated in a nice 23-11 win and cover for the Eagles as 4 point road doggies...

However, in the big picture these Eagles expended ALOT of emotional energy in last weeks contest against the hated G-Men and if the truth be known the Eagles will be playing in what amounts to their 8th straight must win game this week and are doing so once again on the road...

...talking about being on the road again, the public perception of these Eagles is that they are a "Bad mama jamma" when taking their show on the road and the win over the Giants last win has only enhanced the public's perception of that...

...however, a simple review of Philadelphia's most current results when taking to the road shows that even after last week’s win over the G-Men at the Meadowlands, these Eagles are only 5-4-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 roadies and that includes the very embarrassing 3-10 loss at rival Washington, the mind boggling 13-13 tie at Cincinnati and a 7-36 blow out at Baltimore.

This contest is a rematch of a contest that took place in Philadelphia back on 11/27/08 which was won by the Eagles 20-48 as a 3 point home favorite, if we were to disregard the final result of that earlier contest between these two teams a simple home field role reversal would have this line at Arizona -3...

...even if you were to subtract out the results of the first meeting between these two teams the point spread should still have the Cardinals listed as a short home favorite, at worst this game should be a "Pick-em" and in that regard we are getting +3.5 points of value from the word go in my humble opinion.

The public perception of these Cardinals is that Arizona is nothing but a bunch of "upstarts" that can't possibly hang with the Eagles, my answer to that is....ohhhhhhh really?

The Eagles caught the Arizona Cardinals at a good time in the last go around as the Cardinals were fresh off a very disappointing 29-37 home loss to the visiting Giants in a game that saw the Cards out first down the G-Men 27 to 18 and win the yardage battle 371 to 321 yet lose the game...

...meanwhile the Eagles entered their home game against the visiting Cardinals with egg on their face and chips on their collective shoulders after playing the Bungles to an embarressing 13-13 tie and then the following week getting their doors blown off by the Ravens at Baltimore by a final score of 7-36.

Those that think these Cardinals don't stand a snow balls chance in hell of winning this game in straight up fashion might want to re-think that notion as these two teams have met a total of five times since 2001...

...and in those games the Arizona Cardinals posted a mark of 2-3 straight up and 3-2 ATS including a 27-21 Cardinal win the last time Philly visited which was back on Christmas Eve of 2005...and those Cardinal teams were flat out TERRIBLE.

Obviously the odds maker believes that "Joe Public" still sees Arizona as a fraud and in turn views the Donovan McNabb led Eagles as a superior team...we'll see when the smoke clears.

KEY STAT:

A peek into the ole history book reveals this little nugget...Teams that knock off the defending Super Bowl Champs in the playoffs have gone on to post a perfect mark of 0-9 straight up and ATS in their next same season playoff game.
_____________________________________________________________

Take care and be well my friends

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[doogieboy]

SSShhhhh(quiet)...I thought I was the only one looking at 0-9 trend.
I also think the Cards have an excellent chance to cover.
GL to us both

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

Nice writeup but the trend is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS, the Chargers knocked off the Colts last year but still covered the spread in the following game, hence the 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS

 

[doogieboy]

Yep you are correct johnny...and I'm not baseing my entire pick on this trend.
Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Nice writeup but the trend is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS, the Chargers knocked off the Colts last year but still covered the spread in the following game, hence the 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS

:howdy:Hello Johnny~Vegas...

You are entirely correct as I somehow someway over-looked the Chargers knocking off the Colts last year and then covering the spot against New England...

...meaning that this trend is now actually 0-10 straight up and 1-9 ATS which needless to say is a mind boggling 100% straight up and 90% ATS.

Thanks again and take care my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

SSShhhhh(quiet)...I thought I was the only one looking at 0-9 trend.
I also think the Cards have an excellent chance to cover.
GL to us both

:howdy:Hello doogieboy...

SSShhhhh(quiet)...I actually think the Cards have an excellent chance of winning the game in straight up fashion...

...after all, Arizona is playing the very same Eagle team that needed the Raiders (of all teams) to defeat the Tampa Bay Bucs as a hugh 11 point road doggie which in turn allowed Philadelphia (with a win over Dallas) to back their way into the playoffs for goodness sakes.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends...

As stated above in my first posting I am using this same thread to post my selections for the upcoming AFC & NFC Championship contests, with a little luck we will hopefully improve on my current run of 4-2 ATS in the playoffs thus far...
________________________________________________________________

PITTSBURGH -5.5 over Baltimore
Sunday 01/18/09 6:30 pm est
5*****BEST BET
_____________________________________________________________

The line on this contest opened up with the home town Steelers installed as 4.5 to 5.0 point favorites depending on where you looked and has since moved to Pittsburgh -5.5 to -6.0...

...personally I snatched up the -5.5 (at 5 Dimes sports book) as I really wouldn't be surprised if this line moves to Pittsburgh -7 along the way before falling backwards to -6 or -6.5 by game time.

Meanwhile, the O/U total opened up at 33 to 33.5 once again depending on where you looked and has since risen to 33.5 at virtually all locations, which makes sense as the Steelers offense appears to be back on track as evidenced by having now scored 31 and 35 points on their own in their last two outings...

Oddly enough 60% of all wagers placed at Sportsinsights have been on the Ravens but the point spread attached on the game is moving in the other direction...things that make you go hmmmmmm.

Obviously the betting public will back the Baltimore Ravens in this contest as the media has done a very good job of hyping them up to date, but in truth Pittsburgh has literally OWNED the Ravens when they have visited Pittsburgh as evidenced by the Steelers winning 7 of the last 8 games played in Steel Town and overall (home and away) have defeated the Ravens in 3 of the last 4 get togethers...

...public bettors tend to be chowder heads with regard to being VERY superficial, on the surface they see that Baltimore has now won two straight playoff games, they hear from the media "talking heads" that Raven QB Joe Flacco is the greatest thing since sliced bread...

...they hear that the Raven defense is just as good as the one Pittsburgh fields, and last but not least they have been told that Pittsburgh was "lucky" to beat Baltimore twice this season with those two prior meetings decided by a grand total of 7 points...

...sooooo, with all of the above in mind the Joe Public bettor says to him self, "Self, why not take all of those juicy points with Baltimore"?

The odds maker is not a stupid man, he knows that Pittsburgh and Baltimore are two divisional rivals whom know each other well, he also knows that the last two meetings were decided by a total of 7 points...and yet he opens the Steelers up as a prohibitive 5 point favorite!

What does the odds maker know that WE should know?

For starters how about the fact that the Baltimore Ravens will be playing for an 18th straight week without the benefit of having had a bye week?

Its true, keep in mind that the Ravens were originally scheduled to play at Houston during the second week of the regular season (Sept 14th) but due to damage to Houston's Reliant Stadium from Hurricane Ike the game was postponed and instead the Ravens had a bye week...

....which means that since the Ravens did not earn the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC this year they will be playing for what has to be a record 18th straight week without the benefit of having had a week of rest.

In addition to that, the Ravens are playing on the road AGAIN for the 3rd straight week after traveling to Miami and then to Tennessess last week and overall the Ravens are playing on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span...can you say "Road Weary" or how bout just plain WEARY period?

Still not convinced yet?

Take a look at the statistics from Baltimore's first game against Tenny which took place back on October 5th and was won by the Tennessee Titans 13-10...

...in that game the Ravens had more total yards 285 to 210, had more first downs 22 to 14 and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a staggering 34:28 to 25:32 margin, in that game the Ravens controled the line of scrimmage by out rushing the Titans 132 to 47 yards.

I went against the Ravens in their playoff re-match against the Titans because of the fatigue factor of which I have been pointing out, I lost that bet as the Ravens pulled out a miraculous 13-10 straight up win, thanks in part to a non call delay of game penalty...

...however, a peek at the ole stat sheet from the Ravens game against the Titans shows that stat-wise we were on the correct side as Tenny had more first downs 21 to 9, out yarded the Ravens 391 to 211, and won the TOP by a whopping 34:07 to 25:53 difference...yet the Titans lost the game.

Baltimore was very very lucky to defeat the Titans last week and the statistics from that contest bears this out, the most telling stat from that game which shows just how WEARY these Ravens are is the total rushing yards from each team as this is the time tested and true barometer of which team controlled the line of scrimmage and in that regard the Titans out rushed the Ravens 116 to 50 yards.

In the big picture Baltimore is at a severe disadvantage entering this contest against a well rested and healthy Steeler team that as already mentioned has defeated Baltimore 7 of the last 8 times they have visited Steel Town...

...these two teams literally HATE one another, with that in mind I fully expect Pittsburgh to pour it on and not let up, this game might be close in the opening quarter but by half time Pittsburgh will start to pull away and by the games end the Steelers should win this game easily by 14 or more points.

_____________________________________________________________

Take care and be well my friends

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:Hello my friends..

I did a little impromtu study on turnovers and in the process found some really interesting stuff...

Would you believe that since the year 2002 when the NFL implemented its league re-alignment which in effect created two extra divisions and expanded to the current eight division format that we now use...

...that a full two third's of the teams that have finished in the top 12 in turnover margin have made the playoffs?

On the flip side of things only 16 of the 72 total teams who made the playoffs since 2002 did so with a negative turnover margin, oddly enough, last years Super Bowl winning New York Giants was a huge exception to the rule as they finished the regular season up with a -9 yet somehow, someway, they sneaked into the playoffs and ended up winning the ole Lombardi trophy when the smoke cleared.

A peek at the final stat sheet with regard to turnnover margin +/- from this years regular season reveals something odd...below is the final list to close out the regular season:

1) Miami........+17
2) Tenny.......+14
3) Balt..........+13
4) Indy..........+9
5) Giants........+9

Take note that the Baltimore Ravens are the only remaining team left in this years playoffs that finished in the top 5, meanwhile, Pittsburgh closed out the regular season +4, Philly finished with a +3, and Arizona finished the regular season dead even with a +0...

...its definately a good thing to be on the plus side of things with regard to the ole turnover margin +/-, however, when you see a team with a relatively HIGH + number alot of times that just means that they have been damn lucky in having the rolls and bounces going their way more often than not and sooner or later the law of averages tends to catch up with them in the end.

Take note that the top five teams in the NFL this year with regard to turnover margin was Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and the Giants, and all five made the playoffs this year....

....however, the law of averages has already caught up with 4 of those 5 teams as only Baltimore remains from the top 5...

Baltimore was EXTREMELY lucky in their first two playoff games against Miami and Tennessee with regard to amassing a +7 turnover ratio in those two games alone, will their luck finally run out this week?

...things that make you go hmmmmmmmm!!

Take care and be well my friend

:wink: <!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

 

[dogball]

Excellent Write up on the zona game. well done. I dont see Zona but I definetly agree with Pitt
GL

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

hno:

Suggs' availability will 'be close'

Harbaugh in wait-and-see mode about linebacker's sprained shoulder

<DL class=byline>By Ken Murray January 13, 2009 </DL>Terrell Suggs has said he won't miss Sunday's AFC championship game, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh yesterday tempered the optimism on his defensive end-linebacker's injured right shoulder.

At his weekly news conference, Harbaugh said Suggs had a magnetic resonance imaging and suggested Suggs' availability against the Pittsburgh Steelers would "be close."

"I'm not going to sit here and say it's positive, or we're happy about it," Harbaugh said. "We'll just see how it goes. It's going to be close. He's going to work real hard to try to get back. That's all we know."

Suggs sprained the shoulder when he tackled Tennessee Titans quarterback Kerry Collins from behind late in the first half Saturday. He was listed as questionable to return but never got onto the field in the second half of a 13-10 win.

Suggs, who wasn't available to reporters yesterday, has not missed a game in his six-year NFL career, a stretch of 96 consecutive games, the Ravens' longest streak for a position player. He is the team's second all-time sacks leader behind Peter Boulware (70).

His 53 sacks since 2003 are tied for eighth in the league, and his 413 yards in losses are second behind Robert Mathis (415) of the Indianapolis Colts.

They've got Ryan's back

Part of the attraction safety Jim Leonhard had to the Ravens when he signed as a free agent last summer was the chance to play for defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. Eighteen games later, Leonhard understands he might get only one season with Ryan, who interviewed for head coaching openings with the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams this week.

"If he doesn't get a head coaching job somewhere, I'd be surprised," Leonhard said yesterday. "He's a tremendous guy to play for, and I think he'd be a great head coach. As a player, I would love to play with him whether it's here or somewhere else, but as Ravens, we would all like him to be back."

Ryan, 46, is thought to be a leading candidate for the Jets' job, but Leonhard has no doubt about the coach's focus this week.

"We know that come Sunday, we're going to get all of Rex Ryan," he said. "He's going to be there for us; he's not looking ahead. He loves us, we love him."

Linebacker Bart Scott accepted the reports that Ryan could be departing as part of the business. "He's a great coach; I think he's due," Scott said. "He's been deserving of a head coaching job, and we'd all be happy for him. But right now he's our coordinator, and we're going to go out and play hard for him."

End zone


On the injury front, Harbaugh acknowledged the team has concerns about several players, among them cornerback Samari Rolle, who hurt his groin late in the third quarter Saturday and didn't return. ... Leonhard said he suffered only a mild concussion and felt good by Sunday. … Running back Ray Rice made his first game appearance in five weeks Saturday, albeit brief, since injuring his lower left leg against the Washington Redskins. Harbaugh declared Rice healthy and "ready to go."

:wink:

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Steelers' O-line looks toward Ravens

<SCRIPT src="http://d.yimg.com/ds/badge.js" ____yb="1" badgetype="small" showbranding="0">pittsburgh_tribu:http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_606899.html</SCRIPT>http://buzz.yahoo.com/article/pitts...live.com%2Fx%2Fpittsburghtrib%2Fs_606899.html<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> function GetThis(T, C, U, L) { var targetUrl = 'http://www.myspace.com/Modules/PostTo/Pages/?' + 't=' + encodeURIComponent(T) + '&c=' + encodeURIComponent(C) + '&u=' + encodeURIComponent(U) + '&l=' + L; window.open(targetUrl); } </SCRIPT>
By Scott Brown, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, January 13, 2009

An offensive line that shined in the Steelers' 35-24 win over the San Diego Chargers got a sobering reminder yesterday of what awaits them in the AFC Championship Game.

The offensive linemen watched tape of the Steelers' 13-9 win over the Ravens on Dec. 14, and right tackle Willie Colon didn't exactly characterize it as enjoyable viewing.

"That was probably one of the worst games we played all season and we got a 'W,' " Colon said.

The line is coming off arguably its best game of the season. Running back Willie Parker rushed for 146 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry against the Chargers. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger got sacked just one time.

The Steelers only had a combined 160 rushing yards in their two wins over the Ravens during the regular season. "We want to get Willie going," Colon said.


• The Steelers made history by playing keep away from the Chargers' offense. The one play San Diego ran in the third quarter established a new playoff low since the start of the Super Bowl era in 1966. "We made plays when they counted and took time off the clock," Parker said.

San Diego, meanwhile, did not make the most of its only play in the quarter. Defensive end Brett Keisel batted a Philip Rivers' pass into the air and linebacker Larry Foote intercepted it.


Digits

3.6 — Parker's average yards per carry in the 10 games he played prior to the Steelers' regular-season finale.

5.2 — Parker's average yards per carry in the Steelers' last two games.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Blowout loss sparked fire in Cards' defense


By Bob Baum The Associated Press
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 01.13.2009


The Arizona Cardinals had just lost to New England by 40 points. The defense surrendered 514 yards. Coach Ken Whisenhunt walked off the snowy Gillette Stadium field "angry, embarrassed" that Dec. 21 afternoon.

In the rainy week that followed in Arizona, Whisenhunt threatened to bench players in the playoffs if they didn't practice well. Then something clicked.

"Somewhere in that week we found ourselves again," Whisenhunt said Monday.

The Cardinals have not lost since that trip to New England in their improbable run to Sunday's NFC Championship game at home against Philadelphia.

"We've been disciplined in staying in our gaps, in using our hands, in getting the right rush lanes," Whisenhunt said.

An Arizona defense that allowed 183 yards on the ground at New England shut down the league's No. 2 and No. 3 rushing teams — Atlanta and Carolina — in its two playoff wins to date. The Cardinals forced nine turnovers in the process.

"We're just playing relentless," cornerback Rod Hood said. "Everybody's trying to get to the football, make the tackles, knock balls down and be aggressive."

Atlanta managed 60 yards on the ground against the Cardinals, Carolina 75. Of the playoff teams, only Tennessee has given up fewer yards per game than Arizona's 259.5.

"I don't know if the guys felt like, well, they'll just save it for the playoffs or we need a couple of people to doubt us or whatever it is," tackle Bryan Robinson said. "We figured out a way to get going at the right time."

Arizona's defense is built on speed and hard hitting. If there's an energy shortage, it can get ugly, with missed assignments and missed tackles, as it was in the Cardinals' 48-20 Thanksgiving night loss in Philadelphia.

"I had some turkey in my stomach, really didn't feel like playing," Robinson said. "I was out there sleepwalking a little bit."

But when everyone is doing his assigned task, Arizona suddenly becomes a formidable opponent. "I don't think that we ever have questioned that we've had guys that could make plays on defense," Whisenhunt said.

"Where we've had problems has been in discipline."

Five different players intercepted passes in Saturday night's 33-13 victory over Carolina. The Cardinals got a sixth turnover when defensive end Antonio Smith stripped the ball from Jake Delhomme and recovered to set up a touchdown.

The key, Whisenhunt said, is for everyone to stay in their assignments with no freelancing. "The big point we've made the last couple of weeks is you don't have to make a play," Whisenhunt said. "If you do your job, the plays will come to you.

That's what we've been doing the last couple of weeks. That's why we've had so many different guys make plays."

Now the Cardinals have to deal with another tough threat in Eagles running back Brian Westbrook, who scored four touchdowns — two rushing and two receiving — in the Thanksgiving blowout.

The Cardinals believe they are a far different team than they were then.
"We feel like we're a solid defense," defensive end Bertrand Berry said.

"We have some guys out here who can make plays. It's just a matter of putting it all together for 60 minutes on Sunday. If we can do that, the sky's the limit."

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Phil Sheridan
Inquirer Sports Columnist
Tue, Jan. 13, 2009

Reid, McNabb will shoot for history
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/columnists/phil_sheridan/
The resumes have begun to speak for themselves. Andy Reid has been head coach of the Eagles for 10 seasons. He and his staff - most notably defensive coordinator Jim Johnson - have taken the team to the NFL's final four a total of five times.

Donovan McNabb has been the Eagles' full-time starting quarterback for nine seasons. In all but one of the seasons that he remained healthy for 16 games, he led the team to the playoffs. And five of those six playoff excursions lasted at least until the NFC championship game.

Before Dec. 28 - when a stunning series of events qualified the Eagles for the playoffs - Reid and McNabb's resumes were starting to yellow a bit.

The 2004 season, when the Eagles were the class of the NFC and advanced to the Super Bowl, was receding behind a mounting pile of injuries, slumps, mystifying coaching and personnel decisions. It really was fair and reasonable to wonder if this coach/quarterback tandem had seen its best days.

Things have changed, and playoff victories in Minneapolis and East Rutherford changed them.

Reid and McNabb can be judged now, not just for having put together a solid run from 2000 to 2004, but for picking up that thread after years of disappointment and adversity. They earned the right to be evaluated for their entire body of work, not just for a 9-6-1 season in which each man appeared to have lost his grip at times.

After Sunday's game at the Meadowlands, arguably the most impressive playoff win of Reid's tenure here, McNabb alluded to the "trust and the coaching that we have with Andy." Yesterday, Reid returned the favor.
"Donovan keeps getting better and better with age here," Reid said. "He's really doing a nice job. . . . He's upped his game, which you normally don't see this late in a player's career."

It's tempting to say that Reid and McNabb have bounced back in spite of their troubles during the regular season. But the reality is that they seem to have found this new level of rapport because of those troubles. There is something to the idea that McNabb has reacted to his Nov. 23 benching by playing with a renewed sense that he has something to prove.

But it also looks and feels as if Reid was affected just as deeply. When the coach felt he had to yank the single player most responsible for his success here, it must have forced a little soul-searching on Reid's part, too. Since then, the Eagles' offensive approach has been more balanced, the protection of the quarterback more of a priority than ever in Reid's tenure.

This is what Reid means when he talks about "putting players in position" to succeed. He and McNabb had let each other down in some ways. Now they have picked each other up again.

Along with the development of Johnson's defense into a truly dominant unit, that explains how the Eagles find themselves back in the final four after their season teetered on the brink of disaster just over three weeks ago at Washington.

And now that they're here, their resumes are much more relevant than 9-6-1 in evaluating their chances of finally winning a Lombardi Trophy. Of the four remaining coach/quarterback tandems, Reid and McNabb have the most impressive credentials. Throw in the estimable Johnson, and the Eagles are clearly in good position to seize the moment this time.

Arizona has Kurt Warner, who won a Super Bowl eight years ago with St. Louis. Thanks to a group of receivers that must make McNabb's eyelids twitch, Warner has returned to the top. He is still susceptible to pressure, however. Ken Whisenhunt, a former Bill Cowher assistant, is in just his second year as a head coach.

Pittsburgh won a Super Bowl a few years ago with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Nobody confused the solid, unspectacular Roethlisberger with Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, however, Mike Tomlin is in his second season since replacing Cowher.

And then there is Baltimore, with rookies John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco in the two key jobs. Harbaugh is well-known and deservedly respected by Eagles fans. Flacco has been supernaturally cool in his first two playoff games.

The other three coaches, combined, have half as much NFL head coaching experience as Reid does. McNabb's combination of experience, skill and supporting cast give him every tool required to succeed in this unexpected trip to the brink of a title.

That's not a knock on the other coaches and quarterbacks in the final four. It's not the same as saying the Eagles are locks or even favorites. All it means is that the resumes of their head coach and quarterback speak for themselves. The resumes say the Eagles have every chance here.

Two more wins and those resumes will be complete.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

Excellent Write up on the zona game. well done. I dont see Zona but I definetly agree with Pitt
GL

:howdy:Hello dogball...

Thank you very much for the kind words my friend, interestingly enough BOTH Philadelphia and Baltimore find themselves in the very same position with regard to being a "Road Weary" team when each travels to their respective AFC and NFC Championship sites to face this weeks opponent.

Philadelphia catches somewhat of a break as mentioned in my original analysis as they had a short 93 mile jaunt last week in their visit to the Meadowlands last week but also as mentioned the Eagles have not performed well on the road this year as evidenced by posting a very mediocre mark of 5-4-1 straight up in all roadies including last weeks win at the Giants.

This week the Ravens catch somewhat of a break as the distance between Baltimore and Pittsburgh is only 245 miles, however, the fact remains that the Ravens are a "Road Weary" team as well as they are actually playing on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span and will be taking the field for what amounts to an 18th straight week without having had the benefit of a week of rest.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink::wink:

 

[PITBULL]

A guy from Pittsburgh, betting Pitt and fading Philly......



GL

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

A guy from Pittsburgh, betting Pitt and fading Philly......

:howdy:Hello PITBULL...

Thank you for the reply my friend, however, if your inference is that I am wagering on Pittsburgh based SOLELY on 'homerism" you are totally off the mark as I have bet against Pittsburgh this season just as I have in other seasons...

...as a gambler I do not look to GIVE my money away by blindly backing one team over another based on "homerism" (like alot of fans on here apparently do).

Out of curiosity what did I write in my analysis of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game that leads you to suspect that "homerism" is coming into play?

In re-reading what I had written and how I presented the information, I failed to come across anything that was not factually correct...did you?

Personally I as of yet have not read a single analysis on the upcoming Pittsburgh game in which someone intelligently lays out the reasons why or how Baltimore should or will win this contest...

...all I keep hearing is "Ahhhhhh Baltimore has the better defense" or "ahhhhh the Ravens will sack Roethlisberger and make him fumble" or "ahhhhhhh the Steelers won't be able to run on the Raven defense".

The fact of the matter (as I layed out in the analysis) is that Pittsburgh is the much healthier team, is the much more rested team, has the home field edge, and historically speaking has beaten Baltimore in 3 of the last 4 meetings overall and have also defeated the Ravens 7 of 8 times when Baltimore has visited Pittsburgh.

I would love to hear your thoughts on the game and/or your reasons for apparantly thinking that my analysis is based solely on "homerism" when in fact I have layed everything out using sound handicapping techniques.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[jasmine]

what is the time frame for this trend?

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

what is the time frame for this trend?

:howdy:Hello jasmine...

What trend are you referencing?

Dirtydog

 

[jasmine]

the angle, teams that knock off the superbowl champs

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

the angle, teams that knock off the superbowl champs

:howdy:Hello jasmine...

Its a perfect straight up angle dating back to 1982 which is now actually 0-10 straight up and 1-9 ATS which needless to say is a mind boggling 100% straight up and 90% ATS.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink: