EVERY single time I convince myself that "it's a sure thing", I end up losing the game.
One time I can remember in particular was a few years ago -- Wariors vs. Clippers. The GS Warriors were injury-riddled and had to call a couple guys up from the D-league just to have enough players to play the game. The original line was -6, and it went up to -8 after the news of the D-league call ups.
Of course, the Warriors ended up covering the spread. And I'm still yet to learn my lesson, as I still kinda want to convince myself sometimes that these games are "locks".
hno: