Did Vegas Screw up?

[Cantpickem]

Article indicates that VEGAS set a wrong line. Frankly, I find it difficult to believe. Vegas rarely makes mistakes and one would seriously doubt them making a mistake for the SB. Remember "NO FREE LUNCH".
Judge for yourself

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...er-bowl-and-it-could-cost-millions/ar-AA8ogT1

quote
With 12 days to go before the Super Bowl, there is no favorite to win the big game. But it didn't start out that way and it could be a disaster for Las Vegas sportsbooks.
Shortly after New England Patriots completed their destruction of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game, Super Bowl 49 opened with the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5- or 3-point favorites depending on where you looked.
However, in the first 24 hours of betting, the line fell all the way to a pick 'em (no favorite), a surprisingly big move for a point spread and a rare miss by Las Vegas.
Keep in mind, point spreads are not designed to predict the winner. Rather, the purpose of a point spread is to find a number where equal amounts of money are being bet on both sides. When this happens, Vegas wins as losing bets typically have to pay an extra 10% (e.g. a $100 bet actually costs $110 if it loses).
In the case of the Super Bowl, that didn't happen. About 80% of the bets on the Big Game in the first 24 hours were on the Patriots, according to PreGame.com.

What is even more intriguing about this big swing is that the early betting action is typically done by the more seasoned and often professional gamblers making big bets (AKA "sharps") while Joe Public typically waits until a day or two before the game or even game day.
This means that the usually smarter gamblers felt the opening line with the Seahawks favored was a terrible line and immediately put a ton of money on the Patriots including at least one "six figure" bet at the MGM Casino according to ESPN.com.
So when the Super Bowl kicks off there will likely be a lot more money riding on New England which means if the Pats win, Vegas is going to lose big time.
Unquote

Here is the ESPN link
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/201...-seahawks-open-favorites-super-bowl-line-move

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Vegas rarely sets bad lines.......IMO, they set the perfect trap last year on the opening line & they did it again......no one thinks Wilson can beat Manning & Brady in back to back bowls.......

 

[aka1002]

I thought the same, NE SEA final would be an ass kicking. BUT sea has injuries, nE D is much better then denvers. This comes down to coaching. Who's a better coach?

 

[WVJOE]

Vegas rarely sets bad lines.......IMO, they set the perfect trap last year on the opening line & they did it again......no one thinks Wilson can beat Manning & Brady in back to back bowls.......

Vegas is going to get POUNDED this year. This is NOT last year's Seahawks and Brady & the Patriots are not those panzie asses from Denver. New England is gonna win this (I'm betting by 10+) and the sharps who bet it early are gonna clean house. Last year was easy pickings because of all the brain dead morons who drool over the one and done king, Peyton. Not this year. Smart money went on New England and will stay there.

As for who's a better coach? C'mon that's not even debatable.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Are you saying that Tom Coughlin is a better coach than Belichick??

Cause Coughlin best him twice in bowls.......

I went back & looked when the Giants beat the Pats in 2011.......the Giants were 9-7 & Pats 13-3.......Giants were 5-7 in their conference while Pats 10-2 in theirs.......forget about all the "X's" & "O's" when it cones to the super bowl........

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Vegas is going to get POUNDED this year. This is NOT last year's Seahawks and Brady & the Patriots are not those panzie asses from Denver. New England is gonna win this (I'm betting by 10+) and the sharps who bet it early are gonna clean house. Last year was easy pickings because of all the brain dead morons who drool over the one and done king, Peyton. Not this year. Smart money went on New England and will stay there.

As for who's a better coach? C'mon that's not even debatable.

You mean like Oregon with their super fast offense pounding Ohio St with their 3rd string qb?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Seattle will be a fav by kick off.......

 

[WVJOE]

Are you saying that Tom Coughlin is a better coach than Belichick??

Cause Coughlin best him twice in bowls.......

I went back & looked when the Giants beat the Pats in 2011.......the Giants were 9-7 & Pats 13-3.......Giants were 5-7 in their conference while Pats 10-2 in theirs.......forget about all the "X's" & "O's" when it cones to the super bowl........

No I'm not dumb enough to take a small set of statistics and draw WIDE CONCLUSIONS from it. However, if we look over something like a 15+ year period, I think it becomes very OBVIOUS that Belichick is a better coach than Pete (and everyone else in the league). It's not ying vs. yang. Pete is a damn good coach. He's just not really on Belichick's level. He's easily top 3 coach of all time. Pete isn't even in the top 10. Might get there someday but not yet.

As for forget about all the X's and O's....You are displaying MASSIVE stupidity with that statement. X's and O's are VERY OFTEN the difference in EVERY NFL game much less the superbowl. WTF do you think makes the Patriots so CONSISTENTLY good year after year after year DESPITE so many personnel changes. A Coach who NOT ONLY understands more about the X's and O's than most others, BUT is capable of teaching the X's and O's to his players AND getting them to ACT upon that information. If you think that's "forgettable" you better get back on the short bus and go back to school dog.

 

[WVJOE]

You mean like Oregon with their super fast offense pounding Ohio St with their 3rd string qb?

No I mean like Urban Meyer being a MUCH BETTER coach than Oregon's. Don't know what side you were on dude, but I cashed VERY NICE with Ohio St against BOTH oregon and bama. And I will do the same with the Patriots in a few weeks. LMAO

 

[TheComputerGroup]

No I mean like Urban Meyer being a MUCH BETTER coach than Oregon's. Don't know what side you were on dude, but I cashed VERY NICE with Ohio St against BOTH oregon and bama. And I will do the same with the Patriots in a few weeks. LMAO

So what you're saying is, Belichick being the genius he is, allowed Coughlin to beat him twice??

You are saying Coughlin is a better coach than Belichick, that's exactly what you're saying by betting on the better coach.......

 

[TheComputerGroup]

No I'm not dumb enough to take a small set of statistics and draw WIDE CONCLUSIONS from it. However, if we look over something like a 15+ year period, I think it becomes very OBVIOUS that Belichick is a better coach than Pete (and everyone else in the league). It's not ying vs. yang. Pete is a damn good coach. He's just not really on Belichick's level. He's easily top 3 coach of all time. Pete isn't even in the top 10. Might get there someday but not yet.

As for forget about all the X's and O's....You are displaying MASSIVE stupidity with that statement. X's and O's are VERY OFTEN the difference in EVERY NFL game much less the superbowl. WTF do you think makes the Patriots so CONSISTENTLY good year after year after year DESPITE so many personnel changes. A Coach who NOT ONLY understands more about the X's and O's than most others, BUT is capable of teaching the X's and O's to his players AND getting them to ACT upon that information. If you think that's "forgettable" you better get back on the short bus and go back to school dog.

We can argue all you want back & forth, but only one of us will be correct on Super Bowl Sunday.......I don't care how smart you think you are, there are angles you will never see going into the super bowl, not say I g that I know them, but I'm saying the super bowl isn't capped like other games.

 

[cashducats]

Vegas rarely sets bad lines.......IMO, they set the perfect trap last year on the opening line & they did it again......no one thinks Wilson can beat Manning & Brady in back to back bowls.......

manning getting beat in the super bowl was pretty easy to predict IMO. i cashed big on seattle last yr. manning has always been bad in the playoffs. even the yr he won he was very unimpressive. brady and manning are two different animals in the postseason.

i think this line is less of a trap and more of a mistake because prior to the outcome of championship round, seattle or the nfc was favored, after the games the books can't make ne a 3 or 4 pt fave like they should be because of the huge middle they would be exposed to.

also, i would assume vegas will lose alot on seattle futures bets should seattle win. after seattle smoked gb the 1st game of the season the talk was of how seattle would easily repeat etc. again, i don't know how much in exposure to seattle futures vegas has but i assume its alot.

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

Vegas is going to get POUNDED this year. This is NOT last year's Seahawks and Brady & the Patriots are not those panzie asses from Denver. New England is gonna win this (I'm betting by 10+) and the sharps who bet it early are gonna clean house. Last year was easy pickings because of all the brain dead morons who drool over the one and done king, Peyton. Not this year. Smart money went on New England and will stay there.

As for who's a better coach? C'mon that's not even debatable.

you are right on the money IMO....last year i posted a thread somehting like "Why this ends badly for Manning & Denver" where i predicted that Denver would be pounded by Seattle & that it was a massive mis-match, to me that game was a fairly easy one for the astute bettor to make money on & what made it so was the flood of public money on Manning....this year is so different for so many different reasons, i feel New England wins by at least 2 scores.

 

[Albatross]

Vegas rarely sets bad lines.......IMO, they set the perfect trap last year on the opening line & they did it again......no one thinks Wilson can beat Manning & Brady in back to back bowls.......

Why does no one think Wilson can beat the Pats? Everyone knows Seattle is a very good team. They are defending champs and have backed that up with a very solid season. It's definitely not last year.

 

[seer]

No I'm not dumb enough to take a small set of statistics and draw WIDE CONCLUSIONS from it. However, if we look over something like a 15+ year period, I think it becomes very OBVIOUS that Belichick is a better coach than Pete (and everyone else in the league). It's not ying vs. yang. Pete is a damn good coach. He's just not really on Belichick's level. He's easily top 3 coach of all time. Pete isn't even in the top 10. Might get there someday but not yet.

As for forget about all the X's and O's....You are displaying MASSIVE stupidity with that statement. X's and O's are VERY OFTEN the difference in EVERY NFL game much less the superbowl. WTF do you think makes the Patriots so CONSISTENTLY good year after year after year DESPITE so many personnel changes. A Coach who NOT ONLY understands more about the X's and O's than most others, BUT is capable of teaching the X's and O's to his players AND getting them to ACT upon that information. If you think that's "forgettable" you better get back on the short bus and go back to school dog.

part of the reason is they play in a real crappy division. sure mia and buf are getting better but still they play the jets 2x and they should have lost to them late in the year the afc for defense ne ways is inferior to the nfc.
seattle has the sos adv and has arguably the best defense ever.
dilfer and brad johnson won sb with an amazing defense.
if pats who rank 13th or so on d had a better one they might have a chance here. however sadly they arent as good as denver's was last year.
i really doubt lynch and wilson will be stopped on the ground. by late 3q the linebackers of the pats will be gassed
gl though bud. but if this game goes without stupid mistakes or minimum of like seattle did last week then the hawks are deserving of the lombardi

 

[ML Dog]

Vegas rarely sets bad lines.......IMO, they set the perfect trap last year on the opening line & they did it again......no one thinks Wilson can beat Manning & Brady in back to back bowls.......

WTF? Giving us NYG+ gift on 2 separate occasions vs. NE? Baltimore + vs. SF? SEA + last year and year after year the better defense is a dog.

I beg to differ.

Even (Honest and less weighed down by EGO) Old School guys in Vegas acknowledge plethora of Super Bowls line misses throughout history and going on at least 4 years in a row lol.

Now they tossed out NE+3? And got pounded?

Time will tell how bad a phuccup that was. The 2nd NYG/NE game was an astonishing phuccup. Baltimore+/SF too IMO but less obvious from the get go.

This game is totally harder to cypher an obvious winner though...so theres that.

 

[aka1002]

WTF? Giving us NYG+ gift on 2 separate occasions vs. NE? Baltimore + vs. SF? SEA + last year and year after year the better defense is a dog.

I beg to differ.

Even (Honest and less weighed down by EGO) Old School guys in Vegas acknowledge plethora of Super Bowls line misses throughout history and going on at least 4 years in a row lol.

Now they tossed out NE+3? And got pounded?

Time will tell how bad a phuccup that was. The 2nd NYG/NE game was an astonishing phuccup. Baltimore+/SF too IMO but less obvious from the get go.

This game is totally harder to cypher an obvious winner though...so theres that.

Who's has the better d? With injuries to seattle, and NE d, not sure if NE doesn't have the better D

 

[ML Dog]

Who's has the better d? With injuries to seattle, and NE d, not sure if NE doesn't have the better D

I actually thought, hands down, 'Hawks but was shocked to see evidence that NE might have that, this postseason at the least...

"injuries to seattle" is why I wait to confirm "superior def" much closer to game for...as expected a couple of points with 'Hawks. Xlnt question though....somewhere in one of these threads someone said NE #15 DEF, "worse than Denver" (meaning lower ranked I guess) from last year. Whats certain is that this is the toughest superbowl to call in recent history.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

We can sit here & argue both sides all day every day, let the teams decide the game with the refs help if needed .......I can just see all of us sitting & having a round table discussion on this game, papers being thrown at each other, others yelling, haha!

Is it a tough game to cap? Yes it is.......I'm ready for the futures for next year to cone out already, I'm taking the Packers to win it all next year

As for this year, I would say this might be Bradys last season to sniff the super bowl, but I would be lying because he plays in one of the weakest divisions past 14 years......at least they're weak for the Pats, they have been bitch slapping the Bills, Jets & Miami every year.

They're usually guaranteed 6 wins every year from their division.......during the past 4 years & their super bowl run, Seattle has played in the toughest division in the league.

Maybe Belichick will use NASA's satellite's to tape & watch Seattle's practices......

 

[ML Dog]

I can just see all of us sitting & having a round table discussion on this game, papers being thrown at each other

Fukk "papers" man I'd hurl a mother f88kin chair at you cuz you just won't practice money management period. You had a brilliant season were doing great in the post now you wound up down going into the Superbowl with all thats left to you to bet with the last $2 of your betdsi freeplay and whatever change is in the ashtray of your car.

Which you'll prolly use to parlay NE and the under lmfao and you will of course plunk the entire $2 and 54 cents on that.

Where with that amount left you should have bet no more than 88 cents.

FUGTHIS.
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You WILL use money management starting even PRESEASON next year or you and I are gonna have "problems".
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