I would suggest not putting any money behind the plays until your comfortable with whatever system, parameters, ratings you come up with. Typically, most gamblers will lose and lose big working through the trials and tribulations of whatever strategy they develop.
Do the work, test, record results, study and learn with no risk involved.
Best of luck on your endeavors.
Do the work, test, record results, study and learn with no risk involved.
Best of luck on your endeavors.
In the words of the great Jim Valvano, "Never Give UP!" I had the honor of meeting this great individual when I lived in Charlottesville, many of my co-workers were UVA boosters. Met players like Ralph, but never in my life met a man like Jim Valvano. Everyone should be so lucky. Anyway, as your avatar seems to boast, we live to fight another day. Look at the bright side....you could have bet Kentucky tonight, LOL. GL
~T~
Disagree Lt.
I hate the word system, it sounds like some kind of magic solution. I base my plays primarily on situations. I call them situational plays, as I firmly believe history repeats itself. I do the same thing Tide does, finding situations that have long term profitable results. Most, if not all, I require at least 60%. They must show a profit consistently from year to year. I don't want a great year, then a bad year, then a break even year, then another great year, followed by 2 poor years.
I am currently 91-72 in my NBA thread. After a slow start I went on a 34-10 run. Overall around 56%, not what I am used to but still good for 15.85 units. NCAAB I am currently 30-19 (61.2%), good for 10.05 units. Combined is 121-91 (57%), good for 25.9 units over 2 months (13 units/mo).
Vegas may shade a line based on circumstances, but they can't over adjust, and usually the market determines where the lines eventually end up. Vegas puts out an opener, and the public moves it from there.
I have a list of around 70 situations for NBA and 35 for NCAAB. Been using them for some time. Some years are better than others, some not. If they are Fool's Gold, then I'm the Fool. They have been very good to me over the years.
I have friends that put $500+ on my games. They believe in them too. Not a tout, never will be. I enjoy hoping out my friends and hopefully make them a few bucks.
Mileena,
If you have any questions or want some ideas, PM me and we can discuss.
Biz,
What you are referring to is a tool of raw handicapping. If there was a fool proof system that worked year in and year out, nobody would have to work and the BM's would be out of business. I have also been on the other end of of this business for many years. I can only believe in what I see. GL! I think you took my comment too personal.
What you are referring to is a tool of raw handicapping. If there was a fool proof system that worked year in and year out, nobody would have to work and the BM's would be out of business. I have also been on the other end of of this business for many years. I can only believe in what I see. GL! I think you took my comment too personal.
LT,
Wasn't mad at you or taking it personally. Just explaining my point of view on the matter.
It is raw handicapping. There are other factors that determine whether or not I make a play. Its a first look, but most of the time I will go with the play. Nothing is fool proof, and I am playing the percentages.
Most people don't look at the games in this manner. I work in a casino/card room, and most of our customers bet on sports. Few, if any, look at a game this way. It takes time and effort to look at games in this manner. Few have the inclination or desire to do so. They see the match ups, and pick a side. Often times, with no rhyme or reason. As with anything, some are successful and some aren't.
When people actually do sit down and analyze a game, many have a set of parameters they look at. Depends on the sport. I have a friend that does very well with football. He looks at a few specific things and makes his plays. He has a "system". Now, he does look at other things too. However, most of his plays are based on a certain set of circumstances. When people look at a game, and certain things line up for them, that in effect is a system. BTW, he HATES it when I say the word "system". So, I use it often.
Being on the other side of the business, I understand your skepticism. Books win because the percentages are on their side. I'm just trying to flip that around, putting the percentages on my side. I'm not smarter than anyone else, nor am i saying its the only way to win. Many successful handicappers have nothing to do with systems. The word system has a bad connotation, but many people use systems whether they realize it or not.
GL with your action.
Wasn't mad at you or taking it personally. Just explaining my point of view on the matter.
It is raw handicapping. There are other factors that determine whether or not I make a play. Its a first look, but most of the time I will go with the play. Nothing is fool proof, and I am playing the percentages.
Most people don't look at the games in this manner. I work in a casino/card room, and most of our customers bet on sports. Few, if any, look at a game this way. It takes time and effort to look at games in this manner. Few have the inclination or desire to do so. They see the match ups, and pick a side. Often times, with no rhyme or reason. As with anything, some are successful and some aren't.
When people actually do sit down and analyze a game, many have a set of parameters they look at. Depends on the sport. I have a friend that does very well with football. He looks at a few specific things and makes his plays. He has a "system". Now, he does look at other things too. However, most of his plays are based on a certain set of circumstances. When people look at a game, and certain things line up for them, that in effect is a system. BTW, he HATES it when I say the word "system". So, I use it often.
Being on the other side of the business, I understand your skepticism. Books win because the percentages are on their side. I'm just trying to flip that around, putting the percentages on my side. I'm not smarter than anyone else, nor am i saying its the only way to win. Many successful handicappers have nothing to do with systems. The word system has a bad connotation, but many people use systems whether they realize it or not.
GL with your action.
Mileena
You just got two great "opposite sides of the coin" perspective. I have lived with a bookie (my grandfather was a bookie) and gamblers, so I have seen both sides too. I think since you are not taking bets (of course that is illegal in most US states
) and are the punter then you need to look closely at Biz's comments, they are excellent methods for developing your own "systems"/angles. Lt Dan is right, but the books can't account for EVERY angle and situation, but they will move to close loopholes when they can, which is why you need to adjust and find new ones or the gaps that open up when the books do adjust.
I think Biz is right that the betting market is a free market and as such is becoming a very efficient one, you can see this in the returns on some models/methods over the last 5 yrs vs the 5 yrs prior. But the books will inherently always have an advantage because of juice/vig etc...the books models/understanding is getting better every year (NCAAB lines this year have been ridiculously good), but there will ALWAYS be places to take advantage.
If you are not going to build a full on regression model then Biz has the right process...
Bullet points for your process:
- Pick the sport you know the most about (I am talking 'understanding' of the game, players, strategies etc...) [ you can add others later, but start here]
- Think about the type of wager that you think your knowledge could assist (spread, ML, total, 1H)
- Find a solid online database of data that you can query (there are 3-5 reputable ones which are anywhere from free to fairly pricey to a novice bettor)
- Sit down and brainstorm some ideas that you think could generate an edge (e.g., the team with the greater number of shots wins in NHL - not true, just an example lol)
- THEN test the ideas - be reasonable if you tweak it. Don't get data and build models from the data, there has to be a 'cause and effect' just cherry picking data does no good. This is the place where most people fall down. They find great %'s historically but they are meaningless. Statistics only truly work if there is a grounding for the concept. Just because a two game ATS losing streak gives a 98-2 record, doesn't mean a thing unless you have a legitimate reasoning for it
- Looks for systems that have at least 60% winners, at least 70-100 data points, consistent performance (look to see nothing less than an approximately break-even season). The higher the number of data points and the higher the % that is the trick. Look for 'tighteners' to improve returns without destroying your game count etc...
- Try to find systems that don't overlap too much (conceptually different...you might have one based on penalty minutes, one based on shots on goal, one based on Road Dogs, totals based on goalie save% etc....)
- How many plays do you want to be playing each day? I am comfortable playing 20-30 games each day to bring the statistics in my advantage (need large numbers), others prefer much fewer plays that appear to be very high percentage winners....a very personal decision
- Rinse, repeat as necessary
Once you have your plays make sure you have a way to track them (excel, online databases etc...)
MONEY MANAGEMENT! Don't overplay your picks....statistics works on the laws of large numbers, you plays will be small numbers at first and you can get burned overplaying them.
Don't post them on a forum until you have done at least some of this work. If you do and they are not fully vetted yet, make a statement to that effect so that new forum viewers can tell the confidence in them, remember what you post could affect someone else's money. It is their decision to play, but give them as much information as you can so they can make good decisions whether to follow you.
Hope this helps.
Best
Oz
You just got two great "opposite sides of the coin" perspective. I have lived with a bookie (my grandfather was a bookie) and gamblers, so I have seen both sides too. I think since you are not taking bets (of course that is illegal in most US states
) and are the punter then you need to look closely at Biz's comments, they are excellent methods for developing your own "systems"/angles. Lt Dan is right, but the books can't account for EVERY angle and situation, but they will move to close loopholes when they can, which is why you need to adjust and find new ones or the gaps that open up when the books do adjust.I think Biz is right that the betting market is a free market and as such is becoming a very efficient one, you can see this in the returns on some models/methods over the last 5 yrs vs the 5 yrs prior. But the books will inherently always have an advantage because of juice/vig etc...the books models/understanding is getting better every year (NCAAB lines this year have been ridiculously good), but there will ALWAYS be places to take advantage.
If you are not going to build a full on regression model then Biz has the right process...
Bullet points for your process:
- Pick the sport you know the most about (I am talking 'understanding' of the game, players, strategies etc...) [ you can add others later, but start here]
- Think about the type of wager that you think your knowledge could assist (spread, ML, total, 1H)
- Find a solid online database of data that you can query (there are 3-5 reputable ones which are anywhere from free to fairly pricey to a novice bettor)
- Sit down and brainstorm some ideas that you think could generate an edge (e.g., the team with the greater number of shots wins in NHL - not true, just an example lol)
- THEN test the ideas - be reasonable if you tweak it. Don't get data and build models from the data, there has to be a 'cause and effect' just cherry picking data does no good. This is the place where most people fall down. They find great %'s historically but they are meaningless. Statistics only truly work if there is a grounding for the concept. Just because a two game ATS losing streak gives a 98-2 record, doesn't mean a thing unless you have a legitimate reasoning for it
- Looks for systems that have at least 60% winners, at least 70-100 data points, consistent performance (look to see nothing less than an approximately break-even season). The higher the number of data points and the higher the % that is the trick. Look for 'tighteners' to improve returns without destroying your game count etc...
- Try to find systems that don't overlap too much (conceptually different...you might have one based on penalty minutes, one based on shots on goal, one based on Road Dogs, totals based on goalie save% etc....)
- How many plays do you want to be playing each day? I am comfortable playing 20-30 games each day to bring the statistics in my advantage (need large numbers), others prefer much fewer plays that appear to be very high percentage winners....a very personal decision
- Rinse, repeat as necessary
Once you have your plays make sure you have a way to track them (excel, online databases etc...)
MONEY MANAGEMENT! Don't overplay your picks....statistics works on the laws of large numbers, you plays will be small numbers at first and you can get burned overplaying them.
Don't post them on a forum until you have done at least some of this work. If you do and they are not fully vetted yet, make a statement to that effect so that new forum viewers can tell the confidence in them, remember what you post could affect someone else's money. It is their decision to play, but give them as much information as you can so they can make good decisions whether to follow you.
Hope this helps.
Best
Oz
