Developed something I want to track...

[Randizzle14]

NO Plays here....Just a "math model" or system or formula....whatever you want to call it that i've been working on and want to track it.

Below these will be in order of how this model predicted the games ATS. The + number next to it is how much it predicted that particular team to cover the spread by. Again, I have no clue how this is going to go, but i'm hoping for 58-60% over the final weeks. All plays will be counted as win or loss against the closing line.

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:State></st1lace> Wildcats*+24<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Iowa</st1:State></st1lace> Hawkeyes*+19<o></o>
Navy Midshipmen*+18<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">N Carolina</st1lace> Tar Heels*+17<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">N Illinois</st1lace> Huskies*+16<o></o>
Air Force Falcons*+13<o></o>
Stanford Cardinal*+10.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Bowling Green</st1:City></st1lace> Falcons*+10<o></o>
Penn State Nittany Lions*+10<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Arkansas</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Indians*+9<o></o>
Buffalo Bulls*+9<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">San Diego</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Aztecs*+9<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S Carolina</st1lace> Gamecocks*+8<o></o>
Vanderbilt Commodores*+8<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">W Michigan</st1lace> Broncos*+8<o></o>
TCU Horned Frogs*+7<o></o>
Duke Blue Devils*+7<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">W Kentucky</st1lace> Hilltoppers*+6.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Boise</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Broncos*+6<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Connecticut</st1:State></st1lace> Huskies*+6<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Kansas</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Wildcats*+6<o></o>
Rice Owls*+6<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Idaho</st1:State></st1lace> Vandals*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Indiana</st1:State></st1lace> Fightin Hoosiers*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Michigan</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Spartans*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Aggies*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">North Texas</st1lace> Eagles*+5<o></o>
Troy Trojans*+5<o></o>
Baylor Bears*+4.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Nebraska</st1:State></st1lace> Cornhuskers*+4<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Akron</st1:City></st1lace> Zips*+4<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State></st1lace> Jayhawks*+4<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State></st1lace> Tech Red Raiders*+3.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Boston</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">College</st1laceType></st1lace> Eagles*+3<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1lace> Volunteers*+3<o></o>
Northwestern Wildcats*+3<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S Florida</st1lace> Bulls*+3<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Utah</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Aggies*+3<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Beavers*+2.5<o></o>
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets*+2<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City></st1lace> Cardinals*+1.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">East Carolina</st1lace> Pirates*+1<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tulsa</st1lace></st1:City> Golden Hurricanes*+1<o></o>
UAB Blazers*+1<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Utah</st1:State></st1lace>*+1<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Wake</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Forest</st1laceType></st1lace> Demon Deacons*+1


Alot of plays, but want too see how the system as a WHOLE does. I assume it will be close to 50% without any filtering of this.T he games favored by 1 TD or more should hit at the best rate, but that's why i'm tracking...To find out. :think2:

 

[Jetplane]

Goodluck man

 

[aderol]

BOL. i like where this is going.

 

[Randizzle14]

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:State></st1lace> Wildcats*+24<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Iowa Hawkeyes*+19 (Winner)<o></o>
Navy Midshipmen*+18<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">N Carolina</st1lace> Tar Heels*+17<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">N Illinois</st1lace> Huskies*+16<o></o>
Air Force Falcons*+13<o></o>
Stanford Cardinal*+10.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Bowling Green</st1:City></st1lace> Falcons*+10<o></o>
Penn State Nittany Lions*+10<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Arkansas</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Indians*+9<o></o>
Buffalo Bulls*+9<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">San Diego</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Aztecs*+9<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S Carolina</st1lace> Gamecocks*+8<o></o>
Vanderbilt Commodores*+8 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">W Michigan</st1lace> Broncos*+8<o></o>
TCU Horned Frogs*+7 (Winner)<o></o>
Duke Blue Devils*+7<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">W Kentucky</st1lace> Hilltoppers*+6.5<o></o>
Boise State Broncos*+6 (loss)<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Connecticut</st1lace></st1:State> Huskies*+6 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Kansas</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Wildcats*+6<o></o>
Rice Owls*+6<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Idaho</st1:State></st1lace> Vandals*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Indiana</st1:State></st1lace> Fightin Hoosiers*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Michigan</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Spartans*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">New Mexico</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Aggies*+5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">North Texas</st1lace> Eagles*+5<o></o>
Troy Trojans*+5<o></o>
Baylor Bears*+4.5<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Nebraska</st1lace></st1:State> Cornhuskers*+4 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Akron</st1lace></st1:City> Zips*+4 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State></st1lace> Jayhawks*+4<o></o>
Texas Tech Red Raiders*+3.5(loss)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Boston</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">College</st1laceType></st1lace> Eagles*+3<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1lace> Volunteers*+3<o></o>
Northwestern Wildcats*+3 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S Florida</st1lace> Bulls*+3 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Utah</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Aggies*+3<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Beavers*+2.5<o></o>
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets*+2 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City></st1lace> Cardinals*+1.5<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">East Carolina</st1lace> Pirates*+1 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Tulsa</st1:City></st1lace> Golden Hurricanes*+1<o></o>
UAB Blazers*+1<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Utah</st1lace></st1:State>*+1 (Winner)<o></o>
Wake Forest Demon Deacons*+1 (loss)<o></o>

(11-3-0)

Halfway through the day and looking interesting so far.....curious too see how this finishes.

 

[Drunkn247]

Dont understand the lines? Iowa +19? ECU +1

 

[krk1030]

Dont understand the lines? Iowa +19? ECU +1

Read his post.

 

[baffula]

Dont understand the lines? Iowa +19? ECU +1

I think he means Iowa covers the spread by +19. Iowa was a -3 at open, so that should mean they win by 22?

 

[Randizzle14]

I think he means Iowa covers the spread by +19. Iowa was a -3 at open, so that should mean they win by 22?

Ideally, yes. The number is just to show how strong the play is in regard to the system/formula/model. Has no bearing on the spread.

 

[Randizzle14]

This started off much better than it finished. Oddly enough the games that were favored more through this model actually did worse. With the games having an advantage closer to the actual line were VERY successful. Could be cooincidence, or I believe the games that were heavily favored according to this system could've been produced through mathematical inconsistencies. A few tweaks I will be making this week. I believe something positive can come from this, and ANY edge ATS helps. I will break these down at crucial numbers.

Favored to cover by 2 TD's or more:
Kentucky Wildcats*+24 (loss)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Iowa</st1:State></st1lace> Hawkeyes*+19 (Winner)<o></o>
Navy Midshipmen*+18(loss)<o></o>
N Carolina Tar Heels*+17 (loss)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">N Illinois</st1lace> Huskies*+16 (Winner)<o></o>

(2-3-0 ATS) 40%

Games Favored to cover by 7.5 to 13.5.
Air Force Falcons*+13 <o></o>
Stanford Cardinal*+10.5 (loss)<o></o>
Bowling Green Falcons*+10(loss)<o></o>
Penn State Nittany Lions*+10 (Winner)<o></o>
Arkansas State Indians*+9 (loss)<o></o>
Buffalo Bulls*+9 (loss)<o></o>
San Diego State Aztecs*+9 (loss)<o></o>
S Carolina Gamecocks*+8 (loss)<o></o>
Vanderbilt Commodores*+8 (Winner)<o></o>
W Michigan Broncos*+8 (loss)<o></o>
<o></o>
<o>(2-7-0 ATS) 22%</o>
<o> </o>
<o> Games Favored to cover by 3.5 to 7 points
TCU Horned Frogs*+7 (Winner)<o></o>
Duke Blue Devils*+7(loss)</o>
W Kentucky Hilltoppers*+6.5 (loss)<o></o>
Boise State Broncos*+6 (loss)<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Connecticut</st1lace></st1:State> Huskies*+6 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Kansas</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Wildcats*+6(Winner)<o></o>
Rice Owls*+6(Winner)<o></o>
Idaho Vandals*+5 (loss)<o></o>
Indiana Fightin Hoosiers*+5 (loss)<o></o>
Michigan State Spartans*+5(loss)<o></o>
New Mexico State Aggies*+5 (loss)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">North Texas</st1lace> Eagles*+5 (Winner)<o></o>
Troy Trojans*+5 (loss)<o></o>
Baylor Bears*+4.5 (loss)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Nebraska</st1:State></st1lace> Cornhuskers*+4 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Akron</st1lace></st1:City> Zips*+4 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas</st1lace></st1:State> Jayhawks*+4 (Winner)<o></o>
Texas Tech Red Raiders*+3.5(loss)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">(8-10-0 ATS) 44%</st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on"></st1laceName></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Boston</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">College</st1laceType></st1lace> Eagles*+3 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1lace> Volunteers*+3 (Winner)<o></o>
Northwestern Wildcats*+3 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S Florida</st1lace> Bulls*+3 (Winner)<o></o>
Utah State Aggies*+3 (loss)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">State</st1laceType></st1lace> Beavers*+2.5 (Winner)<o></o>
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets*+2 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Louisville</st1lace></st1:City> Cardinals*+1.5 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">East Carolina</st1lace> Pirates*+1 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tulsa</st1lace></st1:City> Golden Hurricanes*+1 (Winner)<o></o>
UAB Blazers*+1 (Winner)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Utah</st1:State></st1lace>*+1 (Winner)<o></o>
Wake Forest Demon Deacons*+1 (loss)<o></o>

(11-2-0 ATS) 85%

Who knows where this will go.....but I can see some positives to build on, and negatives to work on. Hopefully I can find some consistency somewhere.