Detroit vs San Francisco [ Analysis by DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~ [Cleveland OH]

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~Analysis by DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] ~ With"My Bets"

San Francisco's normally stone-wall defense hasn't exactly been impenetrable of late. After holding five consecutive opponents to fewer than 20 points between Weeks 10 and 14, the Niners have given up 21-plus points in four of their last five outings. The 49ers have a dynamic offensive team and they could light up the scoreboard if they can get a dry day. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the best player in the NFL at his position, and he rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 TDs. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle are both excellent targets, but the Niners are hoping Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can return to the lineup for this game.

Detroit's offense can attack this group at every level, too. Jared Goff is an efficient passer with game-breaking talents at receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and tight end (Sam LaPorta). The Lions also boast one of the league's best two-man tandems in the backfield with the bruising David Montgomery and the explosive Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit's defense has also been stingy against the run, ranking top three in both yards per carry (3.7, third) and yards per contest (88.8, second). The Lions can reasonably hope to contain Christian McCaffrey, as much as any defense can, at least. The Lions have been vulnerable against the pass, though, and that could be an issue regardless of whether Deebo Samuel's shoulder keeps him off the field or not. Even without Samuel, the 49ers have a precise passer in Brock Purdy and plenty of pass-catching playmakers around him, including McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings.


Detroit also needs to keep a clean pocket for Goff, who's been a little shaky under pressure. He's been sacked five times in his two playoff games so far, and that number could absolutely increase against a defense with Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead across the front. The 49ers are entering this game with a 12-5 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 7-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the NFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 23/39 passes for 252 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Christian McCaffrey led the team in rushing yards with 98 and 2 TDs. George Kittle led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD.

There are potential paths the Lions can follow to victory, but it's hard to see any of them coming to fruition. Detroit is a really good team, but San Francisco is a great one. Look for a back-and-forth affair for much of the contest, with the Niners pulling away late in front of their home fans.
The Lions are the only NFC team to never make the Super Bowl. They’ll be giving absolutely everything they have to earn their long-overdue first Super Bowl appearance. At the same time, the 49ers are aiming to end a 30-year title drought of their own and have the more complete roster. Combine that with their home-field advantage, and San Francisco should be able to win it. I’ll take the 49ers to win, but not cover.


My Bet Early>> Money Line -$325 X 10. [Press].. I will lay about 3-1 on this match-up with the prop bets on McCaffrey.

Christian McCaffrey Props for the NFL Championship... Receiving Yards Prop: Over 37.5 (-110)

Game Rushing Yards Prop Over 87 1/2 [ -115





 

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49ers have held their opponents to 21 points or less in 13 of 18 games this season. They will put relentless heat on QB Jared Goff, whose own outdoor struggles are well-known, forcing the Lions signal-caller into check-downs, throwaways, or risky decisions. With Goff likely to be conservative in those scenarios, Detroit may focus more on the ground game in hopes of finding success against the Niners' run defense. While SF allowed 4.2 yards per carry, the Lions will be too one-dimensional to keep up with the 49ers' electric offense. Detroit’s deficiencies on defense are too much to overcome, specifically against the pass. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffery and Samuel, if he takes the field, are too strong. The forecasted dry weather should assist Purdy’s accuracy too.

Stats by Harold Johnson NFL analysis [ DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH]]

San Francisco scores 28.9 points per game (3rd) and averages 398.4 total yards (2nd), including 257.9 passing yards (4th) and 140.5 rushing yards (3rd). It converts 48.7 percent of its third downs (3rd) and finds the end zone on 67.6 percent of its visits to the red zone (1st).
The Niners surrender 17.5 points (3rd) and 303.9 total yards (8th) per game, including 214.2 passing yards (14th) and 89.7 rushing yards (3rd). They accumulated 48 sacks and 22 interceptions during the regular season. San Francisco's opponents convert 41.6 percent of their third-down attempts (27th) and score a touchdown on 53.0 percent of their red zone trips (12th).
 

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H. Hat....BOL with your action this weekend buddy.....
thank you again for all your time, write ups and thought's this past season...
much appreciated......indy
 
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Article by Bobby Lancer NFL Analyst Handicapper, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders>>>>>>>

Big playoff games can often be won or lost by costly turnovers, and Baltimore has an distinct advantage in turnover discrepancy. Baltimore had the best turnover differential in the regular season at +12, while Kansas City had one of the worst differentials at -11. No player on the Chiefs had more than two interceptions, while Geno Stone had seven and Kyle Hamilton had four on the year for the Ravens. The Chiefs were only 18th against the run this season, meaning Jackson, Edwards and Hill will be able to eat up yards on the ground. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing yards per game. Jackson can beat teams through the air or on the ground, and he will prove he is worthy of the MVP in this game.

While the Chiefs bring the valuable experience of Mahomes and Reid, but concerns arise regarding the supporting cast. The inconsistency of Rashee Rice may limit the Chiefs' ability to diversify their offensive options and put the pressure on Taylor Swift's boyfriend, Travis Kelce. In a matchup where every offensive weapon counts, the Ravens' ability to exploit potential weaknesses in the Chiefs' offensive lineup becomes a crucial factor with Smith and Queen free roaming the middle of the field and taking away check-downs. The Ravens' multifaceted defense, adept at tying pressure to coverage, could pose challenges for the Chiefs.

Kansas City All-Pro G Joe Thuney was forced to leave Sunday’s victory with a pectoral injury and is listed as questionable for this game. These two defenses are extremely tough, so points will be hard to come by. The Ravens have been dominant at home plenty of times and will punch their ticket to Super Bowl LVII.

It's all about money line bets in these two matchups going to the Superbowl. Social betters betting the point spreads and whales are not betting this matchup. Whales betting on San Francisco 49ers on Sunday to win on the money. [ $-$340 Laying about 3-1] and their other bet big time!!!! Lamar Jackson Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110 is the best bet in this matchup
 
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My Bets for Sunday

My Bet Early>> Money Line 49ers -$325 X 10. $[Press]$.. I will lay about 3-1 on this match-up with the prop bets on McCaffrey. and Lamar Jackson Over 65 1/2 Rushing yards [ -110]

Christian McCaffrey Props for the NFL Championship... Receiving Yards Prop: Over 37.5 (-110)

Christian McCaffrey Game Rushing Yards Prop Over 87 1/2 [ -115

Lamar Jackson Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110
 
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Power Ratings

Dunkel Index Power SF +10

B&Rs Expert Power Rating, SF +14

Pro Football Weekly's Power Rating SF +14

DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Rating SF+ 9

Well ladies and gentlemen of the jury [Rx members] ... They can't be all wrong!!!!!! LOL!!!!
 
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Deebo Samuel will play in the NFC championship game against the Detroit, the San Francisco 49ers reported Friday afternoon. Why do you think power rating is so high off -7 1/2 on SF !!!!!!!!!!
 
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Samuel, 28, was a full participant in Friday's practice and is off the injury report after exiting last week's game in the first half with a shoulder injury. He had 60 receptions for 892 yards and seven touchdown catches this season in 15 regular season games and rushed 37 times for 225 yards and five scores as a do-it-all piece, just another good weapon for Purdy !!!!
 
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Power Ratings

Dunkel Index Power SF +10

B&Rs Expert Power Rating, SF +14

Pro Football Weekly's Power Rating SF +14

DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Rating SF+ 9

Well ladies and gentlemen of the jury [Rx members] ... They can't be all wrong!!!!!! LOL!!!!

My Bets for Sunday

My Bet Early>> Money Line 49ers -$325 X 10. $[Press]$.. I will lay about 3-1 on this match-up with the prop bets on McCaffrey. and Lamar Jackson Over 65 1/2 Rushing yards [ -110]

Christian McCaffrey Props for the NFL Championship... Receiving Yards Prop: Over 37.5 (-110)

Christian McCaffrey Game Rushing Yards Prop Over 87 1/2 [ -115

Lamar Jackson Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110
I think Lamar Jackson when I made the bet at 5X press is much better bet than the points in this matchup
 
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Christian McCaffrey Props for the NFL Championship... Receiving Yards Prop: Over 37.5 (-110)

Christian McCaffrey Game Rushing Yards Prop Over 87 1/2 [ -115

Deebo Samuel is back, but who knows how limited the gadget receiver will be. He missed nearly the entire Divisional Round bout with a shoulder injury, and that led to a boost in opportunities for McCaffrey, who saw 12 targets (seven receptions).
I don’t expect double-digit targets for McCaffrey again, but I expect San Francisco to find ways to get the ball in his hands. The Lions generate a ton of pressure, so quick dumpoffs are certainly an option.
But above all, I trust Kyle Shanahan to be creative and get McCaffrey the ball – something he’s done repeatedly as one of the best head coaches in the NFL.
McCaffrey has gone over 4.5 receptions in three of his last four games and the only under came when he left early against Washington with a calf injury. The superstar averages 5.6 targets per game, but that also takes into consideration multiple blowout wins in which he wasn’t needed as often.
 

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