~Analysis by DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH] ~ With"My Bets"
San Francisco's normally stone-wall defense hasn't exactly been impenetrable of late. After holding five consecutive opponents to fewer than 20 points between Weeks 10 and 14, the Niners have given up 21-plus points in four of their last five outings. The 49ers have a dynamic offensive team and they could light up the scoreboard if they can get a dry day. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the best player in the NFL at his position, and he rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 TDs. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle are both excellent targets, but the Niners are hoping Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can return to the lineup for this game.
Detroit's offense can attack this group at every level, too. Jared Goff is an efficient passer with game-breaking talents at receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and tight end (Sam LaPorta). The Lions also boast one of the league's best two-man tandems in the backfield with the bruising David Montgomery and the explosive Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit's defense has also been stingy against the run, ranking top three in both yards per carry (3.7, third) and yards per contest (88.8, second). The Lions can reasonably hope to contain Christian McCaffrey, as much as any defense can, at least. The Lions have been vulnerable against the pass, though, and that could be an issue regardless of whether Deebo Samuel's shoulder keeps him off the field or not. Even without Samuel, the 49ers have a precise passer in Brock Purdy and plenty of pass-catching playmakers around him, including McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings.
Detroit also needs to keep a clean pocket for Goff, who's been a little shaky under pressure. He's been sacked five times in his two playoff games so far, and that number could absolutely increase against a defense with Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead across the front. The 49ers are entering this game with a 12-5 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 7-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the NFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 23/39 passes for 252 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Christian McCaffrey led the team in rushing yards with 98 and 2 TDs. George Kittle led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD.
There are potential paths the Lions can follow to victory, but it's hard to see any of them coming to fruition. Detroit is a really good team, but San Francisco is a great one. Look for a back-and-forth affair for much of the contest, with the Niners pulling away late in front of their home fans.
The Lions are the only NFC team to never make the Super Bowl. They’ll be giving absolutely everything they have to earn their long-overdue first Super Bowl appearance. At the same time, the 49ers are aiming to end a 30-year title drought of their own and have the more complete roster. Combine that with their home-field advantage, and San Francisco should be able to win it. I’ll take the 49ers to win, but not cover.
My Bet Early>> Money Line -$325 X 10. [Press].. I will lay about 3-1 on this match-up with the prop bets on McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey Props for the NFL Championship... Receiving Yards Prop: Over 37.5 (-110)
Game Rushing Yards Prop Over 87 1/2 [ -115
San Francisco's normally stone-wall defense hasn't exactly been impenetrable of late. After holding five consecutive opponents to fewer than 20 points between Weeks 10 and 14, the Niners have given up 21-plus points in four of their last five outings. The 49ers have a dynamic offensive team and they could light up the scoreboard if they can get a dry day. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the best player in the NFL at his position, and he rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 TDs. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle are both excellent targets, but the Niners are hoping Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can return to the lineup for this game.
Detroit's offense can attack this group at every level, too. Jared Goff is an efficient passer with game-breaking talents at receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and tight end (Sam LaPorta). The Lions also boast one of the league's best two-man tandems in the backfield with the bruising David Montgomery and the explosive Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit's defense has also been stingy against the run, ranking top three in both yards per carry (3.7, third) and yards per contest (88.8, second). The Lions can reasonably hope to contain Christian McCaffrey, as much as any defense can, at least. The Lions have been vulnerable against the pass, though, and that could be an issue regardless of whether Deebo Samuel's shoulder keeps him off the field or not. Even without Samuel, the 49ers have a precise passer in Brock Purdy and plenty of pass-catching playmakers around him, including McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings.
Detroit also needs to keep a clean pocket for Goff, who's been a little shaky under pressure. He's been sacked five times in his two playoff games so far, and that number could absolutely increase against a defense with Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead across the front. The 49ers are entering this game with a 12-5 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 7-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the NFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 23/39 passes for 252 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Christian McCaffrey led the team in rushing yards with 98 and 2 TDs. George Kittle led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD.
There are potential paths the Lions can follow to victory, but it's hard to see any of them coming to fruition. Detroit is a really good team, but San Francisco is a great one. Look for a back-and-forth affair for much of the contest, with the Niners pulling away late in front of their home fans.
The Lions are the only NFC team to never make the Super Bowl. They’ll be giving absolutely everything they have to earn their long-overdue first Super Bowl appearance. At the same time, the 49ers are aiming to end a 30-year title drought of their own and have the more complete roster. Combine that with their home-field advantage, and San Francisco should be able to win it. I’ll take the 49ers to win, but not cover.
My Bet Early>> Money Line -$325 X 10. [Press].. I will lay about 3-1 on this match-up with the prop bets on McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey Props for the NFL Championship... Receiving Yards Prop: Over 37.5 (-110)
Game Rushing Yards Prop Over 87 1/2 [ -115
