Jake, do you have your past record available, including avg. lay price? Thanks and gl.
I can estimate... (97% of my bets for 1-unit, 3% for 2-unit)
2004: +40 units
2005: +50 units
2006: +25 units
2007: -10 units
2008: -10 units
Last two year's I half-assed it and quit before the halfway point since I just didn't have enough time to invest. The first 2 years were the only 2 I've had where I've put as much time into the sport as I wanted to. I'm writing full-time now so I have all the time in the world to handicap and stay on top of this sport so look for 2004-2006 type results. Also, I tend to play more underdogs then anything. I handicap my own lines on the money line and over/under and then bet where there is difference.
For instance, if I have Detroit -140, O9 -115 and the actual line is Detroit -135, O8.5 -110 then I'll be on the Over. Probably would lay off the money line though. I've gotten to the point where half of my handicapped lines are the exact same as what the sportsbook puts up so I'm pretty confident in the accuracy of them.
Anyway, best of luck to you this season.