Derby

[JudgeWapner]

Looking at Lucky has become a great price at 8-1. To me, this horse looks to be the slight best on paper. All I'm saying is maybe the bettors are over reacting some because of the track conditions. And probably too because of a longshot winning this race last year. But something tells me I better be using Looking at Lucky in all of my exotics.

At that price it is great value. I don't expect the price to hold.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Not at all. Across the board as in win, place, show.

 

[donkeybucks]

Going to go with the Judge here. Thanks Judge. Lets cash this!

 

[JudgeWapner]

Lol. You are a brave man!

 

[kidman232]

you guys think there is any value betting head to head matchups?

 

[JudgeWapner]

Kid I played these. Doubt if there was much value left in them.
Ice Box -120 over Devil
Paddy -105 over Mission
Awesome -160 over Dublin
Ice -135 over Noble
Jackson -115 over Mission
Awesome -145 over Devil

I'm sure I would have gotten better prices earlier in the week.

 

[JakeT.]

I like most matchups that have any decent horses over Conveyance and Line of David. Just an FYI.

 

[Coldweather]

BOL bro. Ice box can run like the dickens. Hope you win a bunch of horse money.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thanks CW!

 

[Gravy]

judge, I think 1 of these 5 horses will win

2-3-4-7-16

but going up to the track in a couple of hrs to place my wagers but think #4 super saver will be tough through out the race

 

[Mr.Leisure]

Good luck judge, hope you break the bank :toast:

 

[JakeT.]

The more I think about it, the less I like Ice Box. Dublin is the only closer I see making a serious run at it. I'm not sold on Ice Box having gas left at this distance and the traffic he'll have to overcome just doesn't make it worth it for me.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Gravy, yeah the horse scares me too. I covered him because of the track condition. If he rates, will be dangerous.

 

[GoSooners]

The more I think about it, the less I like Ice Box. Dublin is the only closer I see making a serious run at it. I'm not sold on Ice Box having gas left at this distance and the traffic he'll have to overcome just doesn't make it worth it for me.

I'm not crazy about a horse like Ice Box who wins his last race coming from dead last and ups his Beyers a full 10 spots. And then is expected to come back and do the same thing or better in the Derby. It's possible he could do it, but not very probable.

 

[JudgeWapner]

I'm not crazy about a horse like Ice Box who wins his last race coming from dead last and ups his Beyers a full 10 spots. And then is expected to come back and do the same thing or better in the Derby. It's possible he could do it, but not very probable.

I can understand your line of thinking. Anyone got a link to live odds for the race?

 

[Cusipz]

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/live-odds

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thanks Cus.

 

[Romanowski]

appreciate the writeups judge

 

[JudgeWapner]

My pleasure.

 

[oldmanTED]

Judge Wapner

Thanks again and best of luck on your picks Judge!

This race has a great deal of speed and close stalkers with speed IMHO, so I went with the closer Stately Victor. Don't see any horse wiring this group and there will be a lot of weary legs in mid stretch in this slop following a fast pace. Should be a very entertaining race.