Derby

[JudgeWapner]

Lets start off by taking a look at each horse.
1. Trojan Nation
Definite closer. Likes to come from far off the pace. Got 2nd in The Wood. Almost caught Outwork. Not crazy about the speed figures from that race. Never run at Churchill Downs. Works have been good. Doubt if this one is fast enough to win. Best speed fig was 96. before that ran some 87s.

2. Suddenbreakingnews
Another closer. Got beat by Creator in the Ark Derby. Ran a 99 with a wide trip. Decent work at CD. Should be moving late. Not sure he can turn the tables on Creator.

3. Creator. Also a deep closer. Also out of the Ark Derby. Ran a 100. Should love the added distance. Has run well at CD in his 2 races there. Track should not be an issue. My only concern is that he has not really had a break since last Sept. However seems to be on the improve. Should be a factor as long as pace is legit.

4.Mo Tom
Another one who come from off the pace. Comes here off a 4th in LA derby.Slow speed figs the last 2, but had rough trips both times. Speed figs in mid 90s might not be fast enough. There are other closers I like better.c Has run well at CD which is a plus. If he gets a clean trip, who knows? He seems to find trouble though.

 

[JudgeWapner]

5. Gun Runner
Quality animal who runs just off the pace. Won the LA Derby with a slow speed fig of 91. Very lightly raced. Should be fresh but maybe a little green. Also has run well at CD. Not sure how he will handle the mile and a quarter. Would need to make a big jump forward speed fig wise, which is possible with this horse. Only 3 races at 2 which I like. Kinda wish he had one more race at 3.

6.My Man Sam
Also likes to close. Another who is lightly raced. Got 2nd in BG coming from the clouds. Never run at CD. Works there so-so. Will be running strong late. Speed figs going in wrong direction.

7. Oscar Nominated
Tactical speed. Didn't run in a major prep race. Speed figs nothing to get excited about. Had a good showing over this strip. May be in over his head.

8. Lani
The Japanese horse who won in Dubai. Nice breeding. Seems to run just off the pave. No races at CD. Couple of works that were not impressive. Historically it is tough to ship in from out of the country for this race. Better horses that this have tried and failed.

 

[JudgeWapner]

9. Destin
Likes to run near the pace. Another who didn't run in a major prep. Never gone more than a mile and 1/16. Did run a 100 speed fig 2 back. No races at CD. 1 so-so work. Hasn't run since 3-12. Connections are asking a lot here.

10.Whitmore
Comes from off the pace. Got 3rd in Ark Derby. Has doubled up with 97 speed figs last 2. Might be ready for a move forward. Has a nice race over the strip, as well as a nice work. Interesting.

11.Exaggerator
Like to run on or just off pace. One of the talented West Coast horses. Wll probably go off 2nd fav. Ran a 103 in SA Derby which looks to be best of the preps. Has lots of class. Heavily raced at 2 which bothers me a little. No races at CD which is a concern. One mediocre work there. Certainly a factor. Looks like it has a versatile running style.

12.Tom's Ready
Likes to rate off the pace. Somewhere between tactical speed and closer. Got 2nd in LA derby with a 95 speed fig. Not convinced he will like the added distance. Also before last, speed figures very pedestrian. Hasnt reaaly had a break in running since last Aug. Strange pattern for a Derby horse. Dallas Stewart is a plus. Has run 3 races at CD. Did not run well there in slop. Recent work at CD looks strong.

 

[Greenbacks]

Race going off right now....Twin Spires.

#2 Summation Time

Exacta Box....2/11/4/10

 

[919]

Appreciate the post Judge...always like reading your stuff

 

[ML Dog]

Appreciate the post Judge...always like reading your stuff

+1

 

[JudgeWapner]

13. Nyquist
A deserving favorite who has never lost. Likes to be on the lead, but has won from off the pace. Only 2 races this year, with his last being 4-02 in the Fla Derby. Would like to have seen another prep. Ran a 103 speed fig 2 back. If there aren't legit early fractions, he could win easily from the front end. No races or works over the track.

 

[JudgeWapner]

14.Mohaymen
Also likes to run on or just off the pace. 4th in Fla Derby with a dismal speed figure of 80. Didn't fire that day. Maybe due to the off track. No races at CD but 2 very nice works. Tough call.

15.Outwork
Will be on or near the lead tomorrow. Very lightly raced but talented colt. I think he will make some noise later in the year but a little green for this race. Don't think he is ready for a mile and 1/4. Won the Wood with a 93 speed fig. No races at CD and one average work.

16. Shagaf
Another with only 4 races.Tactical speed. Speed figs going in wrong direction. Faded in the Wood to get 5th. Not convinced he will get the distance. No races at CD. 2 works one of which was impressive.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

 

[JudgeWapner]

17. Mor Spirit
Tactical speed. Got 2nd in SA Derby. If you like the west coast horses you need to consider. Nice running pattern. Great connections. Should be ready for best effort. Training well at CD. Ran well in his one race there. Has a big chance.

18. Majesto
Tactical speed. Finished 2nd in Fla Derby to the favorite. Only ran in Maiden specials before that. Doesn't seem very fast based on speed figs. Never ran at CD. Works so-so. Not sure he will like added distance.

19. Brody's Cause
Closer. Won the BG with speed fig of 91. Ran terrible in TB Derby. Very inconsistent. Ran better at 2. Dale Romans helps.

20. Danzigs Candy
Speed to burn. Will need to get out early and go for the lead. PP hurts him. Ran a 104 2 back. No races or works at CD. Faded in SA Derby which not bode well for the added distance. Don't see him around at the end.

21. Laoban
Another speed horse on the outside. Has the look of a miler. Got 4th in BG. Mediocre speed figures. No races at CD. I just don't see it.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Some random thoughts. Not a strong group of 3 year olds. Best preps appear to be SA Derby, Fla Derby, Ark Derby. All the real speed drew to the outside.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Ok some throw outs.
1.Trojan Nation. Not crazy about the Wood. Question this horses lack of back class. Like other closers more.Toss
4. Mo Tom. This one could come back to haunt me, but with a 20 horse field hard to bet him when he continually finds trouble.
7. Oscar Nominated. Didn't run in a major prep and speed figs look too slow for here. Gone.
8. Lani. Has history going against him. Pass.
9. Destin. Another dangerous throw out. Seems to be getting a lot of play, but I just don't see it. 1 1/16 is his longest prep. Just not enough in my opinion.
12. Tom's Ready- I don't think he gets this distance.
15. Outwork - Love this horse. Look for him to be a monster in the summer, but not ready now.
16. Shagaf - Green and speed figs going the wrong way. His Wood makes me question that he can get the distance.
20. Danzig Candy- speed horse draws to the outside. Not a good thing.
21.Laoban- See above

 

[JudgeWapner]

Please don't get off your horse because I don't like him.Your guess is as good as mine in a race like this. Tomorrow Ill give my thoughts as to how race unfolds and who I am betting.

 

[JustinCruise]

Some random thoughts. Not a strong group of 3 year olds. Best preps appear to be SA Derby, Fla Derby, Ark Derby. All the real speed drew to the outside.

Exactly why I'm throwing out the fav this year

Could be wrong but that's my approach

 

[slapshot]

Thanks JW good info

I gotta put some on Nyquist and will look to add some more plays

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Thanks Wapner....good to see you come up for a breathe of fresh air....

Hope we agree on the winner...

 

[OAKAS]

Thanks for the great write-ups, Judge.

Always look forward to them.

Good luck tomorrow my friend.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Please don't get off your horse because I don't like him.Your guess is as good as mine in a race like this. Tomorrow Ill give my thoughts as to how race unfolds and who I am betting.

Here it is my friend...

Exaggerator
Creator
Nyquist
Mor Spirit

In that order.....

 

[Acebb]

FWIW: Joe Drape from the New York Times was talking about the race on the radio and he was talking up Mor Spirit. He also said the wiseguys were betting Gun Runner.
He picked: Mor Spirit, Mo Tom, Nyquist

Thanks for your thoughts Judge and Good luck guys.

 

[Betallsports]

14.Mohaymen
Also likes to run on or just off the pace. 4th in Fla Derby with a dismal speed figure of 80. Didn't fire that day. Maybe due to the off track. No races at CD but 2 very nice works. Tough call.

Yes, he had a very disappointing race in the FL derby. He had the better trip last out over Nyquist ( who was outside, noses apart through out ) But NYQ pulled away like it was a one horse race.

Thanks for the write-ups T

BOL !