In his excellent publication, "Triple Crown Handicapper 2004," author Jim Mazur points out two interesting trends that are relevant to Saturday’s running of the Preakness Stakes.
Since Mazur and his researchers have been tracking (since 1986), each and every Preakness winner has recorded at least one workout in the two-week time frame between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Interestingly, the prohibitive 8-5 favorite Smarty Jones will walk into the Pimlico starting gate on Saturday without such a workout.
Trainer John Servis has been content to oversee morning gallops rather than ask Smarty for a four or five furlong breeze, as the vast majority of conditioners would advise.
“He’s plenty fit,” explained the trainer.
Keen students of the game might question this tactic. Does Smarty Jones have some minor physical issue that would be tested in the stress of a morning workout? Is Servis protecting some hidden problem the public does not know?
Who knows?
But if I was a betting man (and I am), I would hesitate to risk large chunks of cash with that workout question floating in my head.
Mazur also points out that the vast majority of Preakness winners have been horses that previously ran in the Kentucky Derby. Even on its face, the concept makes perfect sense. The best three-year-olds point to the Derby as the race they desperately want to win. Louisville attracts the best horses, simple as that.
But the author’s stats are too juicy to brush aside as another case of useless historical minutia. Mazur points out that non-Kentucky Derby starters are just 1-for-85 in the last 18 runnings of the Preakness. Only Red Bullet in 2000 was able to buck that trend, the year he upset so-called wonder horse Fusaichi Pegasus under jockey Jerry Bailey.
If you followed this Mazur trend and added the Smarty Jones workout question mark, you might be able to eliminate a healthy chunk of the Preakness field. Little Matth Man, Sir Shackleton, Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, and Water Common would be throwouts as they missed the Derby.
That would leave Louisville also-rans Lion Heart, Borrego, The Cliff’s Edge (if he runs), Song of the Sword, and Imperialism as win-factor candidates under the Mazur system.
Sorry Jim, I doth object.
While the workout issue does give me pause and will keep most of my cash in the wallet, Smarty Jones has to be my Preakness selection. He is a perfect 7-for-7 at four different racetracks at an incredible seven different distances from six furlongs to 1 and ¼ miles. Smarty’s average winning margin has been over five lengths, including a decisive 2 ¾ length win over Lion Heart in the Kentucky Derby.
How do you knock this guy? How then can we maximize his value in the betting pools? Take 7-5 or less in the win pool? Not on your life.
By negative handicapping, perhaps we can eliminate a number of runners that appear too slow to kick in for second money to complete the exacta. Water Cannon, Sir Shackleton, Song of the Sword, and Little Matth Man appear to be throwouts, leaving Lion Heart (5-1), Borrego (15-1), The Cliff’s Edge (6-1), Imperialism (8-1), Eddington (8-1), and Rock Hard Ten (6-1) as potential exacta mates with Smarty Jones.
Using all six candidates under Jones in the exacta would require a $12 investment -- not a bad play. But if Lion Heart runs second as he did in the Derby, you maybe looking at an $18 payout for a $12 investment -- essentially reducing the value to 1-2 odds on Smarty Jones -- dumb.
If Imperialism, the Derby third-place finisher kicks in for place money, that exacta likely projects to about $24 -- this time, an even money return on the $12 dollar layout.
Both those finishes Smarty Jones-Lion Heart and Smarty Jones-Imperialism make perfect handicapping but not financial sense.
I’ll shop elsewhere, thank you.
If the Cliff’s Edge can recover from a foot injury and makes the field, I’ll gamble and toss him from the exacta mix as well. The Nick Zito charge was the shaky morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby off a big speed figure win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. His expected “bounce” to a no-factor fifth place Derby finish suggests that the Blue Grass monster effort knocked him out, and the two-week recovery time for this weekend is not enough.
Out.
Eddington is a puzzler. By Unbridled out of a Chief’s Crown mare, he is clearly the best bred horse in the field and only insufficient earnings kept him out of the Derby. He ran two HUGE speed numbers in route races at Gulfstream Park only to then regress in both the Gotham and the slowish Wood Memorial. But jockey Jerry Bailey senses this horse has talent and returns for the call at Pimlico. But his goofball often lazy running style tells me he has yet to put it together and I’ll gamble Saturday will not be the day he puts it back together.
By process of elimination, we are left with Borrego (15-1) and Rock Hard Ten (6-1) as exacta contenders. The former ran a dismal Derby race but his second-place closing efforts to Wimbledon in the Louisiana Derby and Smarty Jones in the fast Arkansas Derby suggests that he can do it again at Pimlico. His juicy odds also makes him that much more attractive.
As for Rock Hard Ten, only a DQ in the Santa Anita Derby kept him out of the Run for the Roses (insufficient earnings). He is a huge threat in the Preakness based on breeding (Kris S. out of a Mr. Prospector mare), speed figures (103 and 101 Beyers), and rest leading up to the race (sorry Mr. Mazur). His stalking style with Gary Stevens up should help push both Lion Heart and Smarty Jones on the early pace. There is the distinct danger Rock Hard Ten may be overbet, as many fresh faces are in the Preakness Stakes.
Because I can't get the Smarty Jones workout issue out of my head, its time to hedge the bets. Rather than simply play Smarty over Borrego and Smarty over Rock Hard Ten in the exacta pool, my plan is to box both pairs in case of an upset for an $8 investment.
In this case, eight is enough.
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