derby thread

[JudgeWapner]

Advanced Member


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Member No.: 170
Joined: 12-August 03



Will start this by trying to give an in depth analysis of each horse.If someonje sees something I missed or has a different slant,just join in.
Let's kick it off with Action This Day.Mandella trained with Flores up.This horse looked pretty impressive as a 2 year old.Hasn't looked as good as a 3 yr old.Best life time speed figure is 100 which he has run twice.He is a closer.Best races has come from far back.Last race was Blue Grass.Didn't run much and had no excuse.Got beat by several he will see again in the Derby.Also didn't run much in his first 2 races this year at Santa Anita but at least in those 2 he had some excuse.This horse would have to make a huge step forward.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Birdstone.Trained by Zito with Prado up.Good connections here.Was the winner of the Champagne as a 2 year old,so has talent.Raced twice this year which is enough.Last race was Lanesend-Grade 2.Finished way bac,but was steadied twice.Out of Grindstone{unbridled}.TRhat alone makes him interesting.Likes to stalk the pace-tactical speed,which is usually a good style for the Derby.With his breeding you have to think this horse will like added distance.Cracked the hundred barrier in speed figs twice as a two year old.First race this year,won an allowance race easily.Carried 125 in the champagn,so weight shouldn't be a factor.Hasn't run against much this year,so hard to tell what we have here.Has run on a number of different tracks.Interesting.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Borrego- Beau trained,with Espinosa up.Seems to like 2nd place.Last 3 races finished 2nd to Smarty Jones,Wimbledon and Master David.Has also lost to Castledale.Likes to lay a good bit off the pace.Somewhere between a closer and tactical speed.Was closing gap on Smarty Jones in Ark derby.Speed figures have been gradually improving.100,101,104.Its running style seems to indicate will like added distance,as does his breeding.[Strike The Gold].Has also run on a number of different tracks.Strange prep pattern.No real layoff between,2 and 3 year old seasons.

 

[TheGeneral+]

I really like Borrego to be in the money Judge.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Castledale-trained by Mullins with Valdiva up.The Irish horse.As shown in the Sanat Anita,this horse has taken well to the dirt.Is a tacticle speed horse.Ran a 102 in the SA derby.Nice gradual improve on speed figs.Don't know much about the horses bloodlines,but being from Ireland you have to think the horse will want to run all day.Hard to figure out the West Coast horses this year.Have taken turns beating each other.Has one 2 out of 3 races in the States on dirt.Has only run in Calf.where track surfaces are quite different from Churchill.

 

[JudgeWapner]

General,I can see why.The horse does everything but win.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Eddington-Trained by Henning,no jock up yet.At one point this horse was on fire.Running consecutive spped figs of 106,105,103.Although his speed fig are going in wrong direction.Last time out ran 98 in the Wood.Not a bad race though.Had to go 3 wide and made a nice middle move.Likes to stay just off the pave.Breeding would indicate that it should like added distance.Recent bullet work.Bailey choose Wmibledon over this one to ride in Derby.Also once again,had no layoff between 2 and 3 year old season.I personally like to see a horse lightly raced at 2,then a layoff,and then 3 or 4 preps leading to Derby

 

[mickj]

Hopefully your right about 2 preps being enough for Birdstone.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Friends Lake-Kimmel is the traine,Milgore up.Good connections but a lot of questions here.Likes to come from off the pace.Has only broken 100 speed fig once.Won an apparent slow Florida derby and has not run since.Has been working well,but I would have like to see another prep.Long layoff,to come back and run in the derby.Also hasn't really run against many of the top notch horses.Nice breeding and this horse should like the distance.Did beat Cliff's Edge who then came back and ran a monster race in the Blue Grass.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Mick,tough call.I usually like to see 3 or 4.But if I recall,Grindstone was very lightly raced also.

 

[trytrytry]

Fu Peg had 5 races I think Grind stone had 5 lifetime races as well going into the Derby


No Derby horse in modern times (this cnetury)has won the Derby with 4 or less starts (Tapit factor).

but is he racing secret races at that trainers facility?? Who the hell knows about that place!

 

[JudgeWapner]

Imperialism.Trained by Mulhall,with Desormeaux up.I personally feel that this one might be the strongest of the West Coast horses.Ran a nice race in SA derby even with having to be steadied late.Was closing very strong.Comes from pretty far off the pace.PPs indicate he should love the added distance.Great race in the San Rafeal.Went 5 wide and still closed to win at a mile.Has cracked 100 twice in speed figs.Gets Desormeaux which is a plus.Raced a little too much as a 2 year old for my liking.And also no real layoff.Seems to be peaking at the right time.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Limehouse-Trained by Pletcher,Santos up.Can't argue about those connections.Very interesting horse.Last 3 races ran 107,100,105.Definately fast enough.Once again,more races than I like to see as a 2 year old.Running style is tactical speed.Not sure whether he is gonna like the added distance or not.Dosage might give us a hint.{IF ANYONE SEES DOSAGE FIGURES FOR HORSES WILL THEY PLEASE POST}I'm not a dosage freak,but do like to use it as a tool.Ran a nice Blue Grass but tired chasing Lion Heart.Santos should be able to keep him a little further off the pace here.*Big factor-has run twice at Churchill and won them both.*And as you guys have already said,gonna get a square price with this one.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Lion Heart-Trainer,Biancone with Smith up.One thing for sure,is the best looking horse in the race.Simply a magnificent animal.Early speed,early speed,early speed.Seems to be one dimensional in its running style.Was run down by Cliff's in Blue Grass and by Imperialism in the San Rafael.I could be wrong but equate this horse with Peace Rules in that his best distance may be around a mile.He does have more talent than Peace.His speed figures are impressive.Is lightly raced which is a bonus for this race.When he was caught in last two,still ran gamely.Wasn't like the horse gave up.Not sure about breeding and the ablilty to get the distance.If left alone on the lead,will be very dangerous.5 out of six races has broken 100 in speed figures.

 

[Thrillseeker]

Birdstone - They sealed Turfway right before they ran the Lane's End...Zito complained bitterly that he couldn't tell anything about the horse and that he probably just didn't like the surface - so that race might be worth tossing...

Turfway was super, super paranoid about the track after Rowland died - they cancelled card after card every time there was a drop of liquid on the track...

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thrill,good info which would definately explain his race there.I think especially with 3 year olds,you def throw a race out.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Master David-Frankel is the trainer with Solis up.Nice horse who just got caught by Tapit in the Wood.Made a nice bubble move.Wood was first race since Feb,so horse was probably a little short.Likes to come from off the pace,but not too far.Tactical.Should be a fresh horse.Prob would like to have seen one more prep,but with the way he ran in the Wood may not be needed.Has run twice in the 100s.The Beyers fig for the Wood might be a little low.Has run at a few tracks so apparently can adjust to different surfaces.Looks as though added distance should not be a problem.Is he fast enough for some of these?If you like Tapit,you have to give this horse a long look.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Minister Eric-Trained by Mandella,Day is up.Paired up 103s in last two.With 3 year olds usually means poised to take a step forward.Another one with tactical speed.Nice bllod lines,AP Indy and Deputy Minister.Has not run more than a mile and 1/16.Also did not run in a major prep.Strange route to take.Solis picked Master David over this one.Minister ends up with Day which ain't too bad.I'm sure Day had some choices,so interesting he took this mount.

 

[Makers]

Judge last I read there are 11 DQ's

EFH DUAL QUALIFIER SIRE BRED DP DI CD
126 ACTION THIS DAY Kris S. Ky 5 - 4 - 21 - 2 - 0 1.56 0.38
126 CUVEE Carson City Ky 10 - 2 - 9 - 1 - 0 3.00 0.95
126 RULER'S COURT Doneraile Court Ky 4 - 0 - 12 - 0 - 0 1.67 0.50
124 BIRDSTONE Grindstone Ky 3 - 4 - 9 - 0 - 2 1.77 0.33
124 HALFBRIDLED (f) Unbridled Ky 7 - 6 - 9 - 0 - 6 1.67 0.29
123 LION HEART Tale of the Cat Ky 6 - 2 - 8 - 0 - 0 3.00 0.88
122 EUROSILVER Unbridled's Song Ky 3 - 4 - 11 - 4 - 2 1.09 0.08
121 CHAPEL ROYAL Montbrook Fl 4 - 5 - 7 - 0 - 0 3.57 0.81
120 ASHADO (f) Saint Ballado Ky 9 - 1 - 14 - 2 - 2 1.55 0.46
120 SILVER WAGON Wagon Limit Fl 5 - 1 - 8 - 0 - 0 2.50 0.79
119 LA REINA (f) A.P. Indy Ky 15 - 7 - 16 - 0 - 0 3.75 0.97
119 PERFECT MOON Malibu Moon Md 9 - 2 - 9 - 0 - 0 3.44 1.00
119 SIPHONIZER Siphon (Brz) Ky 5 - 0 - 5 - 0 - 0 3.00 1.00
119 SOCIETY SELECTION (f) Coronado's Quest Ky 11 - 3 - 9 - 0 - 1 3.36 0.96
118 BE GENTLE (f) Tale of the Cat Va 6 - 4 - 8 - 0 - 0 3.50 0.89
118 READ THE FOOTNOTES Smoke Glacken NY 8 - 2 - 12 - 0 - 2 2.00 0.58
118 VICTORY U. S. A. (f) Victory Gallop Ky 7 - 4 - 13 - 0 - 0 2.69 0.75
117 HOLLYWOOD STORY (f) Wild Rush Ky 7 - 4 - 11 - 0 - 0 3.00 0.82
117 THE CLIFF'S EDGE Gulch Ky 12 - 6 - 12 - 0 - 0 4.00 1.00
117 TIZDUBAI (f) Cee's Tizzy Ca 7 - 1 - 10 - 2 - 0 1.86 0.65
116 MARYLEBONE (f) Unbridled's Song Ky 1 - 4 - 11 - 0 - 2 1.40 0.11
116 TIGER HUNT Kris S. Ky 6 - 5 - 19 - 2 - 0 1.78 0.47

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thanks, Makers.