Derby Draw

JudgeWapner · May 4, 2005

Cadi, draw certainly works in his favor. Can get the lead, if he wants it.

cadillacman · May 4, 2005

Judge Wapner said:
Cadi, draw certainly works in his favor. Can get the lead, if he wants it.

I agree. Frankel will put together a good game plan.

I see Noble Causeway ml at 12-1. He still your pick?

oldmanTED · May 4, 2005

What post position did Afleet Alex draw? I don't see him listed here.

Keep in mind that the trainers drew post positions. The order was shown in Labeeb's thread in the horse racing forum. Zito must have chosen post 16 for Bellamy Road to be in the alternate starting gate. He had tenth choice.

JudgeWapner · May 4, 2005

OMT, he is in 12 slot. Cadi, I still like him. Gotta digest the posts before I determine how much.

t3a · May 4, 2005

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=590 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#444444><TD class=SmTableHeadWhite align=middle colSpan=5>Kentucky Derby 131 Field

Purse: $1,000,000 added; 1 1/4 miles
</TD></TR><TR class=BgSteel><TD class=SmTableHead>Post</TD><TD class=SmTableHead>Horse</TD><TD class=SmTableHead>Jockey</TD><TD class=SmTableHead>Trainer</TD><TD class=SmTableHead align=right>M/L Odds</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>1.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Sort It Out</TD><TD class=SmTable>B. Blanc</TD><TD class=SmTable>B. Baffert</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>50-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>2.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Andromeda's Hero</TD><TD class=SmTable>R. Bejarano</TD><TD class=SmTable>N. Zito</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>50-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>3.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Sun King</TD><TD class=SmTable>E. Prado</TD><TD class=SmTable>N. Zito</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>15-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>4.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Noble Causeway</TD><TD class=SmTable>G. Stevens</TD><TD class=SmTable>N. Zito</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>12-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>5.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Coin Silver</TD><TD class=SmTable>P. Valenzuela</TD><TD class=SmTable>T. Pletcher</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>20-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>6.</TD><TD class=SmTable>High Limit</TD><TD class=SmTable>R. Dominguez</TD><TD class=SmTable>R. Frankel</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>12-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>7.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Flower Alley</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Chavez</TD><TD class=SmTable>T. Pletcher</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>20-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>8.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Greater Good</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. McKee</TD><TD class=SmTable>B. Holthus</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>20-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>9.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Greeley's Galaxy</TD><TD class=SmTable>K. Desormeaux</TD><TD class=SmTable>W. Stute</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>15-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>10.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Giacomo</TD><TD class=SmTable>M. Smith</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Shireffs</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>50-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>11.</TD><TD class=SmTable>High Fly</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Bailey</TD><TD class=SmTable>N. Zito</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>8-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>12.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Afleet Alex</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Rose</TD><TD class=SmTable>T. Ritchey</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>9-2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>13.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Spanish Chestnut</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Bravo</TD><TD class=SmTable>P. Biancone</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>50-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>14.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Wilko</TD><TD class=SmTable>C. Nakatani</TD><TD class=SmTable>C.Dollase</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>20-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>15.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Bandini</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Velazquez</TD><TD class=SmTable>T. Pletcher</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>6-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>16.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Bellamy Road</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Castellano</TD><TD class=SmTable>N. Zito</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>5-2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>17.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Don't Get Mad</TD><TD class=SmTable>T. Baze</TD><TD class=SmTable>R. Ellis</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>30-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>18.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Closing Argument</TD><TD class=SmTable>C. Velasquez</TD><TD class=SmTable>K. McLaughlin</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>30-1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=SmTable>19.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Going Wild</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Valdivia Jr.</TD><TD class=SmTable>D. W. Lukas</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>50-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=SmTable>20.</TD><TD class=SmTable>Buzzards Bay</TD><TD class=SmTable>M. Guidry</TD><TD class=SmTable>J. Mullins</TD><TD class=SmTable align=right>20-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

kermit16 · May 4, 2005

oldmanTED said:
What post position did Afleet Alex draw? I don't see him listed here.

Keep in mind that the trainers drew post positions. The order was shown in Labeeb's thread in the horse racing forum. Zito must have chosen post 16 for Bellamy Road to be in the alternate starting gate. He had tenth choice.

post number 12

oldmanTED · May 4, 2005

Spanish Chestnut is inside of Bellamy Road, but Wilko and Bandini are in between and are both stalkers, don't believe the post position will be a problem for Bellamy Road. Spanish Chestnut will be if he is sent out as the rabbit. Nice spots for all the stalkers High Fly, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Bandini. Noble Causeway should be able to take back. High Limit might be compromised with Spanish Chestnut and Bellamy Road having faster early speed outside of him.

JudgeWapner · May 4, 2005

OMT, I actually see Alex as more of a closer. which I believe is a good place to be in this race. With speed outside, should see some fast early fractions.I expect Going Wild to gun it.

oldmanTED · May 4, 2005

Judge:

Probably a difference in semantics between us. Believe he will be mid-pack down the backstretch and make his move on the far turn. Given the speed of the race, he could be quite a ways back down the backside. But I wouldn't call him a "deep" closer. It's possible this field could get spread out pretty well if all the speed is shown early. Still need to see the past performances before trying to completely figure where each horse may be at any given time.

JudgeWapner · May 4, 2005

OMT, did most of that last night, now just have to adjust based on posts.

oldmanTED · May 4, 2005

Checked the weather and it looks good all week long including Derby Day around 80 degrees. Track condition should be fast. If any bias exists, it should show itself in the Pre-Derby races. For those wishing to watch most of the entire race day, listed below is the television schedule:

9:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. EST Breakfast at Churchill Downs (1 Hour Show Repeated 3 Times) (ESPN2)

12:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. EST Today at the Kentucky Derby (ESPN)

5:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. EST The Kentucky Derby (NBC)

Rainbow · May 4, 2005

Judge, you have really did an excellent job on this thread. I think without a doubt whenever you draw a bad post position you need almost more than a horseshoe to over come it. GL Judge, real good stuff.

t3a · May 4, 2005

outside posts

Smarty Jones broke from the 15 hole last year which was the first stall of the auxiliary gate. It gave him a little more room coming out because there is a little space between the main gate and the auxillary

In 2000, Fusiachi Pegasus won, he drew post 16 but the horse inside him scratched and he broke from the 15

The 16 post has also produced 2 recent Derby winners — Charismatic in '99 and Monarchos in 2001.

JudgeWapner · May 4, 2005

Thanks, RB, now just have to pick the winner.

DrunkenHorseplayer · May 4, 2005

Thunder Gulch also won from the auxiliary gate. I don't think post position will make a bit of difference this year. With all the speed signed on, the field should be well strung out when they hit the first turn.

Brock Landers · May 4, 2005

This year reminds me a lot of of the year Fusiachi Pegasis won, dominant horse in the same vein as Bellamy Road.

My favorite of recent vintage was Silver Charm though, that was one nice looking horse.

Cigar live in fornt of me beating some great competition at Arlington remains a highlight though.

Labeeb · May 4, 2005

Brock Landers said:
My favorite of recent vintage was Silver Charm though, that was one nice looking horse.

Cigar live in fornt of me beating some great competition at Arlington remains a highlight though.

I myself was a Free House fan. People forget what a good show Silver Charm and Free House gave us leading up to the Derby and then teamed up with Captain Bodgit in the Preakness for one of the better ones I've seen in a while. Both Silver Charm and Free House were stunning horses.

While I wouldn't call the competition in the Citation Challenge at Arlington great (Dramatic Gold and Eltish ran 2nd and 3rd, hardly great runners), the manner in which he did WAS great. Giving at least 12 pounds to all of his competitors, going 10 furlongs just a few months after returning from a victorious Dubai World Cup...now THAT was great. Damn Dare and Go!

Brock Landers · May 4, 2005

Labeeb said:
I myself was a Free House fan. People forget what a good show Silver Charm and Free House gave us leading up to the Derby and then teamed up with Captain Bodgit in the Preakness for one of the better ones I've seen in a while. Both Silver Charm and Free House were stunning horses.

While I wouldn't call the competition in the Citation Challenge at Arlington great (Dramatic Gold and Eltish ran 2nd and 3rd, hardly great runners), the manner in which he did WAS great. Giving at least 12 pounds to all of his competitors, going 10 furlongs just a few months after returning from a victorious Dubai World Cup...now THAT was great. Damn Dare and Go!

Excellent synopisis of all those events/years Labeeb!!