DENVER/MINNESOTA - WRITE UP + PICK!

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Denver Nuggets will try to connect two home wins in a row, after rather crap weeks when they have lost their grip. After fabulous start Denver could miss the play-offs as they dropped form and team spirit. There were a lot of talks in the team lately accusing and criticizing among players, and it seems that the young team is bowing under pressure. Tonight, they are meeting their division leaders, Minnesota Timberwolves, who are coming to this game with no days rest after precious victory over San Antonio. Both teams have something to hope for, as Denver plays much better at the Pepsi Center then away from it, while Wolves proved to be one of the top road teams this season. Yet, I can't see this game going other way then Minnesota. Two teams have distinct difference in team quality, that was shown just a couple of days ago, when Wolves swiftly won at the Pyramid.


Two key matchups will surely be on forwards. Carmelo Anthony will be once again guarded by good defenceman Latrell Sprewell and it should trouble young star in all ways. Although quick and explosive than Spree, Anthony seems to lose himself when under pressure. It's quite normal for such an unexperienced player but is also a big problem to Nuggets, as he tries to get out of it be keeping the ball to himself too much. On the other hand, no way that young Brazilian Nene can guard KG. Garnet is playing his best season and is top candidate for the MVP award. Nene is battling hardfighting PF, but is somewhat limited in offense. Nuggets are hoping for an above average shooting from Voshon Lenard, but the fact is that he isn't hothanded anymore. Camby wpould try to prevail under the rims, but could easily miss the game, while Miller will be matched up with Hudson and Cassel, so I give the advantage to Wolves here to. Cassel was severaly limited last night with Bowen stuck on him, but was readdy to pull the triple-double on an awful shooting night, and should feel much more relaxed as Lenard is far from good in D. Slowly, but inevitably, shooting forward Wally Szcerbiak recovers and he is contributing more and more from the bench.

Wolves are set as 2.5 points favorites and I have no doubt that they will walk away with a victory here as handicap.

Higher stakes recommended!
 

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I've recently stopped betting on Denver because I believe their success/failure depends upon Carmelo's mood for that day. However, you have brought up an excellent point in that he will be guarded by Sprewell. I think this will cause him to have fits and the whole team will follow therefore a bet on Minnesota will be in order here.

Thanks again for giving us such insight.
 

Homie Don't Play That
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Wolves in an NBA classic sandwich, off a huge win vs the Spurs(= let down) and with the Lakers coming up(= look ahead). They will not show up tonight. Denver's biggest game of the year so far will be tonight. Denver will win tonight big no problem. Wire to wire win. This is not a pick for Denver rather its a bet that Wolves will be totally disinterested. NBA is not as much about matchups, rather is about who wants it more.

Just my 2 cents and my biggest play of the year
 

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Generally, your points re: Wolves are fine. However, Falco's point about the sandwich are reasonable. This was a MAJOR win for Minny. They have the Lakers on-deck. The only two real champions and usual obstacles for the Wolves. They just wasted Denver two games ago and are 3-0 in the series. Carmelo and the team had a good meeting after Sunday's embarrassment and seem fine again. Sprewell is NOT good at this time of the year in a B-to-B after a big effort. Last three cases, FEB 4, FEB 25, MAR 9. Season avgs. are 17 pts/gm, including 4+ FT ATTS. In those 3 he avg'd 9 pts/1 FT ATT.

Angle: Minn beats a conf. opponent by 10+. Next time they meet, Minn. has won at least their last game. Minn. is 2-11-1 ATS in those games, losing to spread by 7 pt. avg. (I did not include last year's final game v. Mem., as I consider last games pretty random.) With Milw., Cassell was 4-8 ATS last 12 spots like this. With Sprewell, NY was 3-9 last 12 spots like this.)

Also, Denver is 7-4 vs. conference top teams SU at home, and 3-0 vs. PTL/UTAH. Only failure is Minn., and only by 2 pts.

Denver or pass, and I like the first half best, as pressure will be on Nuggets late in game if it is still close.
 

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To show I'm not an "I told you so" kind of newbie...Nuggets were lucky to have a freakish TO discrepancy in their favor last night. Obviously some of that could be attributed to fatigue/slight indifference, but not THAT much.
 

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