Denver +2?

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Joined
Sep 17, 2010
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  • I usually do not bite on lines that look suspicious
  • BUT it sure seems that Denver should be -3 or even a bit more
  • THEY want you to take Denver
  • So to me, GB seems to be the play
  • GB needs it a WHOLE lot more than Denver as it relates to making the playoffs, they will play hair on fire until the final gun
  • I will probably pass, though:+clueless
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2025
Messages
413
Tokens
  • I usually do not bite on lines that look suspicious
  • BUT it sure seems that Denver should be -3 or even a bit more
  • THEY want you to take Denver
  • So to me, GB seems to be the play
  • GB needs it a WHOLE lot more than Denver as it relates to making the playoffs, they will play hair on fire until the final gun
  • I will probably pass, though:+clueless
My opinion line is pretty close to where it should be. Opened at GB -2 and currently -2.5. It does seem there's no adjustment for home field with the current line.

Market-Implied Line is...
GB 4.9
DEN 1.8
GB -3 on neutral field.

That's what the market says on a neutral field. With that I have a betting line of GB PK/-1. Its a little inflated in my view. The respected/sharp money sets the lines so late Sat, early Sun we'll know where the line should be when it moves. I'd be suprised if it doesn't drop some before gametime.
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2025
Messages
413
Tokens
  • I usually do not bite on lines that look suspicious
  • BUT it sure seems that Denver should be -3 or even a bit more
  • THEY want you to take Denver
  • So to me, GB seems to be the play
  • GB needs it a WHOLE lot more than Denver as it relates to making the playoffs, they will play hair on fire until the final gun
  • I will probably pass, though:+clueless
The betting market believes GB is the better team.
 

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