Demian Maia (-275) vs. Chael Sonnen (+215)

[hardys4ever2000]

i couldnt agree more. I think he definately has more than a 50% chance of beating demian maia is pretty much strictly a bjj player with 7 of his 9 victories coming via submission (with 1 tko win via injury and a dec win). however i do see why the line is the way it is because sonnen has 9 losses with 5 of them coming via sub, so im guessing the odds are the way they are because he seems suseptible to subs. either way after his performance against paulo filho (x2) i think he has at least a 50% chance of beating maia...of course he'll have a better chance if he can keep it standing...

 

[JakeT.]

I wouldn't take much from the Filho fight... Filho showed up way out of shape and has been a head case the last year or so and wasn't in the fight mentally at all.

 

[hardys4ever2000]

i agree with that but i still think the fight should be maybe -150/+130 or so not the way it is now.

 

[JakeT.]

i agree with that but i still think the fight should be maybe -150/+130 or so not the way it is now.

I personally think the line is right. Sonnen has been submitted twice by Jeremy Horn who is not even close to Maia's ground skills. He also hasn't shown much knockout power. Once this one hits the ground I think Maia gets the sub. I'll call a triangle transitioned to armbar for the win.

 

[TheBrainiac]

I dont think Sonnen can avoid hitting the ground with Maia , every1 who has seen 2nd fight with Filho knows Filho was seeing dead people in the ring and hearing voices , looking totally lost out there if like he was on coke or something else .

 

[sphincter]

sonnen does get subbed...no doubt...but vs. an obviously compromised filho,we all saw that sonnen was fighting smart and not going to be stupid enough to let it go to the ground...

i totally expect a similar type of strategy vs maia....he has no choice..

after watching maia struggle mightily vs ed herman on spike,i`ve changed my mind a bit and might just consider sonnen at 2-1...


something that bothers me about this type of fight is that even though guys know that you can`t go to the ground with a guy like maia,fighters inevitably do so and instead of fighting to get right back up,they stay on the ground...

i can`t imagine...after fighting a guy like filho twice in his recent past ,that a guy with sonnen`s talent and experience doesn`t get it...

but?##)

 

[core42]

I wouldn't take much from the Filho fight... Filho showed up way out of shape and has been a head case the last year or so and wasn't in the fight mentally at all.

..and yet Sonnen looked almost as bad as Filho in that 2nd fight and he still put himself into some dangerous spots on the ground.
Sonnen's base is wrestling & he recently stated that's what he will focus on vs. Maia. He said "yep he's dangerous but so is everyone in the UFC". If that's truly his mindset & strategy then it probably won't go past the 1st because Maia is in a different dimension in no gi bjj vs anyone else in the UFC.
This is similar to the Alvarez vs. Aoki fight...a one dimensional bjj fighter against a well rounded wrestler/striker but the problem is that Maia/Aoki are SO good in that one dimension that they still get the submissions when everyone knows it's the only thing they have.

 

[TheBrainiac]

Atleast Alvarez has some nasty KO power and Aoki was TKOed by Hansen just a while ago , Sonnen isn't know to me for his KO power and Maia should get it the ground pretty quick anyway even if Sonnen himself doesnt try to take him down Maia will pull guard .

 

[core42]

True, for Sonnen to win he's going to need to stay on his feet as much as he can, get take downs and ride out a decision without getting subbed. That's a VERY tall order against Maia.

I'm on Maia & Marquardt HUGE

 

[MMA_Swami]

This won't look much different than how Maia got Quarry to the ground. He's going to run right through Sonnen. Maia, Marquardt with a generous sprinkle on Stefan Struve.

 

[dps831]

If Sonnen wants to keep it on the feet, he can, he's a far superior wrestler. The only problem is he still likes to get the fight to the ground against people he has no business grappling with like Filho. If he stays smart I think he can get a decision.

 

[Uno]

haha, you guys are funny. sonnen has always had trouble with ufc level talent...

horn
terry martin
babalu

to name a few. maia is more impressive everytime out.

 

[Uno]

haha, you guys are funny. sonnen has always had trouble with ufc level talent...

horn
terry martin
babalu

to name a few. maia is more impressive everytime out.

maia looks more impressive everytime out.

sonnen is a bitch, i would stay away from betting any of the minor leaguers when they get called up.