Del Mar 8-14

Prof_Factor · Aug 14, 2016

Del Mar 8-14-2016

weather forecast: clear
track likely: fast/firm ....
bias likely: negligible

r#1 - 6f
2 (5-2) SPINDLE
1 (5-1) ATLANTIC SLEW
3 (3-1) SPACE CADET

r#2 - 5f turf
2 (6-1) EDDIE HASKELL
1 (3-1) SMOKEY'S LEGACY
7 (6-1) SENATOR ROBERT

r#3 - 5.5f
5 (3-1) OVERCOMER
1 (7-2) COYOTE FLY
4 (4-1) I B MIKE

r#4 - 8f turf
6 (8-1) AZTEC WARRIOR
2 (8-1) DARK ENERGY
1 (12-1) BLUE NAVY BLUE

r#5 - 8f
3 (4-1) THE SPIRAL JETTER
4 (5-2) ALLSQUARE
2 (5-1) CORDIALITY

r#6 - 8f turf
12(8-1) RARE CANDY
8 (10-1) ST.JOE BAY
4 (7-2) TUCO (IRE)

r#7 - 5.5f
8 (5-2) AMERICAN GAL
1 (7-2) GRAND PRIX
9 (12-1) AURA ROSE

r#8 - 8f turf
6 (5-1) LILY KAI
3 (3-1) SINGING KITTY
9 (10-1) TIZ A KISS

r#9 - 6f
3 (3-1) LEGITIMATE
10(12-1) OLIMPIO'S SCAT CAT
1 (20-1) KERN RIDGE

Playing exact keybox top picks.
Good luck to all.

escrow · Aug 14, 2016

BOL Prof! Thanks for posting.

escrow · Aug 14, 2016

Nice strike in the 2 nd!

Prof_Factor · Aug 14, 2016

Haven't played this track in a while. Outside bias, or rather slow inside, on dirt is much worse than I first anticipated. Probably eliminates the #1 in the last race (race9) from hitting the board regardless of connections intentions. Other than that, bias has already done the damage to my early dirt picks and should have minimum effect on remaining dirt picks.
Crossed-fingers.

OptionalClaimer · Aug 14, 2016

Thanks for posting Prof

Prof_Factor · Aug 14, 2016

I'm liking your pick in the last race more and more, OC.

HeadsNecks+Noses · Aug 14, 2016

D. F. S. F. = dirty < filthy< stinkin favorites !!!!^

Prof_Factor · Aug 14, 2016

results ...

Prof_Factor said:
Del Mar 8-14-2016

weather forecast: clear
track likely: fast/firm ....
bias likely: negligible

r#1 - 6f
2 (5-2) SPINDLE ... 2nd
1 (5-1) ATLANTIC SLEW
3 (3-1) SPACE CADET

r#2 - 5f turf
2 (6-1) EDDIE HASKELL ... 1st $8.80
1 (3-1) SMOKEY'S LEGACY ... 2nd ... exacta $33
7 (6-1) SENATOR ROBERT

r#3 - 5.5f
5 (3-1) OVERCOMER ... 1st $7.00
1 (7-2) COYOTE FLY
4 (4-1) I B MIKE

r#4 - 8f turf
6 (8-1) AZTEC WARRIOR ... 3rd
2 (8-1) DARK ENERGY
1 (12-1) BLUE NAVY BLUE

r#5 - 8f
3 (4-1) THE SPIRAL JETTER ... off
4 (5-2) ALLSQUARE
2 (5-1) CORDIALITY ... 2nd

r#6 - 8f turf
12(8-1) RARE CANDY ... off
8 (10-1) ST.JOE BAY
4 (7-2) TUCO (IRE)

r#7 - 5.5f
8 (5-2) AMERICAN GAL ... 1st $4.80
1 (7-2) GRAND PRIX
9 (12-1) AURA ROSE

r#8 - 8f turf
6 (5-1) LILY KAI ... off
3 (3-1) SINGING KITTY ... 3rd
9 (10-1) TIZ A KISS ... 2nd

r#9 - 6f
3 (3-1) LEGITIMATE ... 1st $4.60
10(12-1) OLIMPIO'S SCAT CAT
1 (20-1) KERN RIDGE

Playing exact keybox top picks.
Good luck to all.

4 wins out of 9 races returned $25.20 (+$7.20)
Only connected on 1 exacta for $33 so my keybox plays went for -$39.
In 6 races got one part of the exacta without catching the second part.

Prof_Factor · Aug 15, 2016

Regarding the outside dirt bias I mentioned ....
here's a couple of my bias reports for those playing Del Mar in the future.
Biases come and go. So watch for them.

Code:

                             Track Bias Reports 
                                 08-15-2016
                            ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                            (racetrack selected)
                             DMR - past 14 days

                              (query selected)
                          SPRINTS + DIRT + FAST/FIRM

Note: Races excluded if winner below 8-5 odds

Run Style Graph
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SampleSize = 23 |——————————————————————————————————————————————————100%

   Front runners|»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»48%

   Pace Pressers|»»»»»»»»»»»»»26%

        Stalkers|»»»»»»»»»»»»»26%

         Closers| 0%

    Deep Closers| 0%


Post Position Graph
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SampleSize = 23 |——————————————————————————————————————————————————100%

AVERAGE FIELDSIZE = 7.9

     INSIDE     |––––––––––––––––––––39%
     OUTSIDE    |––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––61%

POST  1)  2/23  |»»»» 9%
POST  2)  2/23  |»»»» 9%
POST  3)  1/23  |»» 4%
POST  4)  4/23  |»»»»»»»»»17%
POST  5)  3/23  |»»»»»»»13%
POST  6)  3/21  |»»»»»»»14%
POST  7)  4/18  |»»»»»»»»»»»22%
POST  8)  3/13  |»»»»»»»»»»»»23%
POST  9)  1/ 7  |»»»»»»»14%
POST 10)  0/ 5  | 0%
POST 11)  0/ 2  | 0%
POST 12)  0/ 1  | 0%

Code:

                             Track Bias Reports 
                                 08-15-2016
                            ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                            (racetrack selected)
                             DMR - past 14 days

                              (query selected)
                          MIDDLES + DIRT + FAST/FIRM

Note: Races excluded if winner below 8-5 odds

Run Style Graph
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SampleSize =  7 |——————————————————————————————————————————————————100%

   Front runners|»»»»»»»»»»»»»»29%

   Pace Pressers|»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»57%

        Stalkers|»»»»»»»14%

         Closers| 0%

    Deep Closers| 0%


Post Position Graph
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SampleSize =  7 |——————————————————————————————————————————————————100%

AVERAGE FIELDSIZE = 8.4

     INSIDE     |–––––––14%
     OUTSIDE    |–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––86%

POST  1)  0/ 7  | 0%
POST  2)  0/ 7  | 0%
POST  3)  0/ 7  | 0%
POST  4)  1/ 7  |»»»»»»»14%
POST  5)  0/ 7  | 0%
POST  6)  3/ 7  |»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»43%
POST  7)  0/ 5  | 0%
POST  8)  2/ 4  |»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»50%
POST  9)  0/ 3  | 0%
POST 10)  1/ 3  |»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»»33%
POST 11)  0/ 1  | 0%
POST 12)  0/ 1  | 0%