DEL (german hockey league) LAST 2 games before the Play-offs, Friday to Sunday

[chriscol]

Ok, now the big time is starting. Friday and sunday will be the last 2 games in regular season. i'll try to analyse the standings and will try to give you some szenarios.
i think there is a good chance for great value at the weekend with teams playing for position against non-motivated and teams maybe loosing on purpose to get a better opponent.

standings:
goals points
1 Eisbären Berlin 181 : 126 106
2 Kölner Haie 145 : 113 97
3 Adler Mannheim 150 : 124 92
4 DEG Metro Stars 141 : 114 91
5 Nürnberg Ice Tigers 127 : 123 86
6 Krefeld Pinguine 143 : 124 75
7 Kassel Huskies 114 : 122 75
8 Iserlohn Roosters 131 : 127 72
9 Hamburg Freezers 144 : 149 72
10 Hannover Scorpions137 : 145 66
11 Augsburger Panther121 : 141 63
12 ERC Ingolstadt 117 : 129 62
13 Frankfurt Lions 127 : 163 59
14 Schwenninger Wild Wings 34

play-offs will be first 8 teams, + 13th and 14th will play in a "play-down-series" to avoid relegation.
3 points for a regulation win
2 points OT win
1 point OT loss

open situations:
köln needs one point to clinche home ice for quaters and semis: they should get it latest on sunday at home against hannover
mannheim + Düsseldorfrace for 3rd place,with mannheim little chance to catch köln in 2nd,if they collapse. the important thing here is that third place will have by far the easier 1st round series as there is a huge differnece betwenn top 5 teams and possible number 6 to 8.
mannheim got two tough games left: at home against köln and away at nürnberg, while düsseldorf will have an easy winner against last place schwenningen on sunday, but a tough one at home vs. iserlohn on friday...advantage düsseldorf

nürnberg will finish 5th

6-8 (Krefeld,Kassel, Hamburg, Iserlohn): what a tied race and 3 of 4 will make it. the tie-breaker will be goal differnce. that will be: Krefeld > Iserlohn > Hamburg = Kassel

easy remaining winners here are:
hamburg on friday
Krefeld none
Kassel on sunday
Iserlohn none

head to heads will be:
on friday: Krefeld vs. Kassel
on sunday: Iserlohn vs. Krefeld

my prediction:
6. Krefeld 78
7 Hamburg 78
8 Kassel 78
9 Iserlohn76

Hannover (10th) and schwenningen (last) will play out the string

play-downs (Augsburg, Ingolstadt, Frankfurt)
Frankfurt will not win in Berlin on friday...game over..teams playing out the string

Predictions and write ups for Thursday/friday games will follow
(if you want to have easy money: right now you get 1.4 for hamburg over schwenningen: i expect finishing line about 1.2 or even of the board)

BOL to all on german ice

 

c: once playoffs begin do you have access to series prices/futures?

bb

enter..."The Hockey Zone!"
http://www.theprescription.com/hockey/hockey.asp

 

[chriscol]

no, i did not find a book offering these..at least not last year. but i f you or someone else knows one, post it. i'll give you my opinions on these.
what be great to have series prices..let's see of some book do it this year

 

[chriscol]

Thursday:

only match today is the rematch of tuesday's game,today playing in mannheim:
Mannheim - Köln. it's a PASS for me, but for those who like it (it'S a live-TV game here)some infos:

situation: Köln in second place 5 points ahead of mannheim needs one more point to clinche second. Köln by far the the strongest away team in league won both games at mannheim this season.
Köln unbeaten in regulation since 18 games..but almost half of games ended in draw like tuesday'S match.
Mannheim seems to get back in form just at the right time with an OT win in Köln and an away-win in Frankfurt, but they lost last 3 home games without scoring a goal.
mannheim needs the points tonight much more than köln in order to keep chasing düsseldorf on distance. Köln will get the needed point for 2nd place on sunday anyway, but will also be motivated in order to set the tone for a possible semi-final-series against mannheim.
that game is absolutely open, if i had to play it,for the value a köln win with chance for draw.

see you later for tomorrows games

 

[chriscol]

Friday (all games at 1.30 pm ET)

Let'S start the big games.Record so far is 57-34 (+29.97 units)

Tonight there will be:

Hamburg- Schwenningen: Hamburg to win (1.4) for 2 units
Simple as that: Must win at home for Hamburg against weakest team in league. Hamburg has to get the win tonight to stay in race for last play-off spot. They will play in front of a sell-out crowd..and their whole season will be on this game (and the next).
Schwenningen meanwhile is playing for nothing, besides some close games (and losses) they did not get a regulation win in last 20 games.
Hamburg won all 3 games against them this season and i dont expect this to be a close one.
Fired up hamburg by 3 or more goals.

Hannover- Ingolstadt: Not yet a play on Hannover (waiting for a phone call from hannover-area)

At first look this is a pass. With Hannover almost no chance to reach play-offs (only complicated math can do the work for them), while Ingolstadt got a late surge and needs one more point (or a loss by Frankfurt) to avoid relegation.
BUT special situation here. This game is not played at normal Preussag-Arena,which is the new (and not fan-accepted) home of hannover since season. This game will be played at Mellendorf, their old home-arena. It will be very emotional for both fans and players and i expect a 100 % effort and a big party.
I'm just waiting on aconfirmation-call from Hannover that i'm right here and will make it a play as soon as possible then.
So if you expect no lack in efford from Hannover then it's a home win here.
Hannover won last 5 games at home(all by a minimum of 3 goals) and is 4-0-1 in last 5 games overall.
Ingolstadt played also very strong recently, but they had to just to avoid relegation. they need just one more point of next 2 games to rech the (six weeks ago) unthinkable and avoid relegation.
But i see a chance for a possible let down here. In my eyes they dont have to get a point,because Frankfurt will not win both matches (Frankfurt got a very,very tough schedule). Frankfurt is playing tonight at league leader Berlin and that should be game over for them and a smile for ingolstadt (even with a loss)

Krefeld- Kassel: No play
Complete open match.Krefeld clinches play-off spot with a win tonight..looking for a draw here

Düsseldorf- Iserlohn: NO PLAY
Düsseldorf can reach 3 place and possible easier 1st round match with 2 wins this weekend. They will give everything tonight, but Iserlohn is one of the best away teams in league (already won once in düsseldorf) and need every single point themselves to get into play-offs. Complete open match

2-team parlay: Hamburg to win (1.4) and Berlin to win (1.5) for a combined 2.1 and 1 unit

Berlin-Frankfurt

On paper league leader against the second worst team overall and by far the worst away-team. Normally i would say line would be like 1.25.
But tonight you can get 1.55 at some places for Berlin. Reason is simple. Berlin has nothing to play for anymore (clinched 1st), Frankfurt has to win to avoid relegation.
Because of the dangerous situation i'll not play Berlin as a single-play at a price of 1.5.
But together with the,almost sure bet Hamburg (see above) i like the value at 2.1 with the much,much better team

BOL for all and wait for Hannover info

 

[chriscol]

HANNOVER NO PLAY
i got the info from Hannover that i was wrong.
They play in old arena, but it was not that fans dont love the new arena in hannover and would like to go back.
In fact Hannover people are rooting still for the old-traditional Hannover team,which is playing 2.Bundesliga and New-Scorpions franchise is not really accept in town.
I was just curiou about an info,i remembered hearing in past, but ok.
So No PLAY tonight on Hannover

LIVE SCORING

 

[caracalla]

2nd period: Hamburg 5-0. Great pick!!!!

 

[chriscol]

SUNDAY (all games 1 pm ET)

After two easy winners on friday record now is 59-34 (+31.87 units).

TODAY IS THE BIG DAY: last day of regular season,which gives us great value:

after friday'S games situation is like that:

1. Berlin
2. Köln
3/4 Düsseldorf/Mannheim
5 Nürnberg
6 Krefeld
7/8/9 Hamburg/Kassel/Iserlohn
...
15 Frankfurt
16 Schwenningen
so couple of decisions to make for the play-offs today (1-8 will be in)

3. Düsseldorf 94 pts +28 goals
4. Mannheim 94 pts. +27 goals
these two teams playing for number 3 (tie-breaker is goal-diff.),which means the 3rd will play Krefeld in first round,the 4th will play Nürnberg...Krefeld should be the eaysier series so i expect both teams trying to reach no. 3.

7. Hamburg 75 pts
8. Kassel 75 pts
9. Iserlohn 72 pts

3 point for win in regulation, 2 pts for win in OT, 1 pt for loss in OT
Tie-breaker will be Iserlohn > Hamburg> Kassel

One team will miss the play-offs
-----------
PLAYS

Nürnberg-Mannheim: Mannheim to win (2.35) for 1 unit
As said above Mannheim has towinhere to reach 3rd and hope that Düsseldorf willnot get a regulation win. what else could be a factor is that, if Mannheim stays 4th both teams will meet again in first round series.
So this will be no walk over for Mannheim,which went back to good form in recent games.Nürnberg can set a sign for the upcomeing series, but i still see a lack of effort,maybe resting some players for nürnberg.
Mannheim with a good chance her for away win

Schwenningen-Düsseldorf: Düsseldorf to win (1.6) for 2 units
are yiu kidding me?: Düsseldorf got to win against last place schwenningen to clinche 3rd. Schwenningen did not win in regulation now for 21 games. i bet heavyly against them on friday and again cannot understand the line here..they play out the season and should have little chance against a much better team,with much more motivation tonight

Iserlohn- Krefeld: Iserlohn to win (1.8) for 2 units !!
Iserlohn made a late surge for the play-offs,but they are in the back seat with friday'S away loss to düsseldorf.tonight they are in a must win situation (they have to hope for a regulation loss of Hamburg or Kassel).
Krefeld meanwhile clinched 6 th place on friday and i dont expect them to give all they have.
That'S a big game for the home team against a team wich WILL let down today.

Frankfurt- Hamburg: Hamburg to win( 2.0) for 1 unit
Hamburg need one more point to clinche play-offs. they got the easy winner on friday at home 6-0 and now play a team which has to play in play-down against relegation after friday'S loss.
that'S a huge blow for the frankfurt team as 3 weeks ago they looked absolutely save, but went on a terrible streak and now face relegation..there will be lots of sadness in the stadium tonight and i dont expect much fan support.
Hamburg on the other hand will be fired up and will jumpstart the game as they did friday. only danger is a tie would be enough,but i dont expect hamburg to let this game be close

Kassel- Augsburg : Kassel to win (1.6) for 2 units
same situation as for Hamburg: Kassel needs one point against a augsburg team that has nothing to play for after friday'S win..a motivated better tea at home against a non-motivated team away..you make the play

ADDITIONALLY i'll give out my first 4-team parlay of the season as i'm feeling so confident with these games

Hamburg (2.0) + Iserlohn (1.8)+ Düsseldorf (1.6) + Kassel (1.6)for a combined 9.22 (+822) and 0.5 units

BOL and maybe all teams fired up that have to

Live scoring

 

thanks, C, will pass these on!

bb

enter..."The Hockey Zone!"
http://www.theprescription.com/hockey/hockey.asp

 

chriscol,

I've been following (and profiting) from your plays for a while now. Just wanted to say a long overdue THANKS!!!

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[chriscol]

Thanks,qs.

i'm watching iserlohn-krefeld on TV..and krefeld is a complete joke.absolutely no effort. after 12 min. 3-0 Iserlohn and 14-1 SOG.
Also Düsseldorf and Kassel jumped out of the box for early scoring..let's hope

 

[fredd]

i also have been following your hockey

plays- excellent results today.

Thank you for posting and we hope you will

continue to post your excellent reviews.

Thanks again.
fredd