Yesterday, favs were 3-0 before the night game in which Arizona St was supposed to dominate the game, but got their asses handed to them. Everyone was on Arizona St and Vegas made a lot of their losses back. Same thing is happening today. 3 favs covered and we have a matchup where A&M is clearly the public fav. Does the dog cover again tonight or are the favs going to hit 4-0 today? I really like Duke here, but Manziel and A&M are scaring me away from going BIG. Thoughts?
Duke could possibly cover and like you say the #'s are in their favor now due to all the chalk, but I'd be really surprised if A&M lost to Duke outright in Johnny Football's last game which should motivate him and the team (remember what he did to the Sooners last year in the bowl game)...In fact, I would be a lot more surprised by A&M losing outright to Duke then Arizona State last night losing to Texas Tech.....We are talking about Duke here (a basketball school) so that would definitely be a massive shocker if they won it outright unless Johnny Football was injured or extremely hungover although he probably used to that....That said, the A&M suspect defense at times gives Duke a chance to cover despite a perceived talent and class edge.
I think Manziel, Mike Evans and Jake Matthews will want to go out on a high note. All three have a chance to improve their draft value leading up to the April draft and it starts tonight. I doubt that they have taken many shortcuts in preparation for this game, especially Manziel, who will not want to end his college career (though not decided to go pro) with three straight un-Manziel like performances. The previous two were due entirely to injury - he was nowhere close to 100% against LSU or Mizzou. He's healthy tonight and will display that dual threat potential early and often. What is Manziel's mindset? It's still conceivable that he goes #1 overall in the draft and stays in Texas...Bridgewater nor Hundley have declared or decided - supposedly.
Teams that perform poorly down the stretch tend to come out prepared, focused, and intend on winning. Duke has been this type of team all year, and they also lost their last game of the season, but I can't see the motivational angle with this game. I think A&M will be motivated as well.
With that said, I really doubt Vegas losses this game. For what it's worth, I'm parlaying Duke and the Over. small.
Teams that perform poorly down the stretch tend to come out prepared, focused, and intend on winning. Duke has been this type of team all year, and they also lost their last game of the season, but I can't see the motivational angle with this game. I think A&M will be motivated as well.
With that said, I really doubt Vegas losses this game. For what it's worth, I'm parlaying Duke and the Over. small.
Duke's pass def isn't all that great either, correct? I believe they are somewhere in the 70's in terms of pass yards per game. I feel Duke will score against the A&M def, but will they hold up the A&M passing attack? I'm thinking of doing a 3 point teaser with Duke +26.5, Tex A&M -0.5, and Under 88.5. Tex A&M shouldn't lose outright to Duke, and Duke should be able to cover 26.5. Only concern would be the total, but 88.5 points is a lot considering most of these games have been going under.
Duke only covered 14.5 points in 5 games to weak teams with weak defense and offense. They also lost all of their games to ranked teams SU and only covered 1 of those against Bama as a dog. A&M is also 2-9 ATS on a neutral field last 11 games. It's too tough to pass up the points with Duke so I am going to play them for a mid size wager.
