Deja vu all over again - Houston Comets

[BigGamesOnly]

Unless we learn from history we are doomed to repeat it. Sometimes it's good to repeat history, especially when betting.

We learned how losing a bad beat in the Sparks/Lynx series can actually lead to some profit in the remaining games. I believe we can learn something from that series that will allow us to win some money in the Comets/Monarchs game because there are many similarities.

Here they are with a summary of how I will bet this game:

Sparks-
2003 WNBA MVP Lisa Leslie runs this team and leads them to a 24-10 record.

Comets-
2003 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year Sheryl Swoopes leads this team to a 20-14 record.

Sparks-
History of WNBA championships.

Comets-
Won the first 5 WNBA championships.

Sparks-
Finished with an 11-6 home record during the regular season.

Comets-
Finished with a WNBA best 14-3 home record during the regular season.

Sparks-
Lost the first game of a 3-game series on the road by 2 points.

Comets-
Lost the first game of a 3-game series on the road by 6 points.

Sparks-
Won the second game of the playoffs by 11 points.

Comets-
Won the second game of the playoffs by 21 points.

Sparks-
Were up by 38-26 at half and won by 74-64 in the 3rd game.

Comets-
3rd game yet to be played.

Does anyone see a pattern here???

Summary-
The Comets lost in an upset in the first game of their playoff series on the road. When the series moved back to Houston the Comets won 69-48. The Sparks also lost the first game of their series and won the second game big along with winning the 3rd game.

I expect the Comets to win the 3rd game of their series in like fashion. In order for the Comets to show their dominance they will put on a good first-half effort. Remember, the Comets had the best home record in the WNBA at 14-3. Sacramento was 7-10 on the road.

Take the Comets in the first half at -2.5 -113. I expect the Comets to cover the -5 -111 as well but my bet for that line will not be nearly as large.

 

[winkyduck]

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[winkyduck]

for the record - houston won the first 4 titles. this is year 7 of the league with LA winning the last 2 - as well as this one when all is said and done.

agree that houston in 1st 1/2 is the way to go. glad i got you a winner monday with sparks in 1st 1/2. NEVER close!

 

[winkyduck]

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[winkyduck]

i've told the moderators about this being posted like a zillion times in the reply and asked the to delete all but 1 - hopefully they will! sorry!

 

[winkyduck]

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[BigGamesOnly]

Another interesting note about that game is that the Lynx had a line of something like +3.5 for the second half. They ended up outscoring the Sparks in that half.

If the Comets get up large in the first half and the Monarchs are given points for the second half, I may bet on the Monarchs for the second half.

 

[winkyduck]

in both LA games they got about 2-3 points and in both games they covered the 2nd 1/2.

 

[winkyduck]

this was more deja vu from LAST season - where houston lost G1 in utah, won G2 at home (and was lucky to do so) and lost G3 at home in the lasts econds. just like this year.

la tears thru sacramento in 2!

 

[BigGamesOnly]

The Comets almost pulled this one off. At least I'm 3-1 in WNBA- LA game 2 total, LA game 3 1st half, Detroit game 3 1st half all were wins with the Houston 1st half being a loss.

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

One more note, the 2nd half spread for the Lynx in game 3 went to the Lynx when the Sparks got up big. The 2nd half score for the Rockers in game 3 went to the Rockers when the Shock got up big. When the Comets got behind in the first half, they won the 2nd half big.

In other words, if a favorite gets up big in the first half bet on the dog in the second half. If the dog gets up in the first half, bet on the favorite in the second half.