Aloha Gang, well its here, was a long wait for me, as I had this Bad Boy marked almost when it came out. The PAC vs the WAC, I just love when this happens. Anyway, lets get to way I like this game so much. You Ready, Let Go!
Before I list my reasoning for my selection, here is my selection for those that dont like to read. Play UCLA -3 for 7 Unit Play of the Month. Now on to my reasons, for this play.
First off, the Pac-10 vs the WAC, when this happens, we have a situation where it is an automatic play on the Pac-10 team against the WAC opponent when favored by less than an TD favorite. This situation for me in the past has been a money maker for me. I used this reasoning as part of the total analysis for my selection on Oregon St. over NM. Now I know that the Lobos are in the MWC, but they used to be in the WAC. I still see them as just an extention of the WAC, as far as talent and type of football they play. Anyway, it worked.
Other reason for this reasoning has to simply be due to the differential in the two conferences as far as coaches and talent level of players. The Pac-10 is head and shoulders of the WAC, and it is to me a gift to have to lay less than a TD.
For this one, I will show the differences between the two teams, but they are based on the national statistics. I usually dont let my decision be based on statistics, but in this game with these two teams, it shows more strongly why Ucla is the call, and why the Pac is better than the Wac. At least in this one.
First, Ucla is ranked 109th in Total Off in the nation avg 305 ypg. Fresno St is 75th in the nation avg 357 ypg. Now remember that this ranking showing Fresno St having a better Off is very deceiving. For one, the level of competiton of both conf. What more telling about this stat is the fact that Fresno St from the weak Wac known for wead defenses has only averaged 357 ypg.
Next, for the Def, Ucla ranks 21st in the nation in Total Def giving up 320 ypg. Fresno St ranks 78th in the nation giving up 397 ypg. Look now at this huge difference here gang, while remembering the difference in conference each plays in. (HUGE ADV for UCLA)
Now, we need to break down and look alittle deeper into the comparison between the two teams today. After you see this I think you will see how this game based on personal, competition level, shows where the real differences in both squads.
Ucla's Run Off ranks 113th in the nation rushing for 94 ypg. Fresno St Run Def ranks 86th in the nation giving up 183 ypg. Now notice this huge amount of rush yards Fresno St gives up. Remember also that they play in the pass happy WAC. Looks like this Def is just the cure for the Ucla run game. (HUGE ADV for UCLA)
Fresno St Run Off ranks 50th in the nation avg 160 ypg. Ucla is 22nd in the nation and only gives up 114 ypg. Looks like a long day running for Fresno. (HUGE ADV for UCLA)
Ucla Pass Off ranks 67th in the nation passing for 212 ypg. Fresno St Pass Def ranks
50th in the nation allowing only 214 ypg. Now you may think because of the rankings it a good thing for Fresno St., well just remember the Def athletes that the Pac-10 has on Def compared to again the Wac and the athletes they have on Off. Fresno may have a good Pass Def, but it is based on there Wac competition.(BIG ADV for UCLA)
Fresno St Pass Off ranks 80th in the nation avg 196 ypg. Ucla Pass Def ranks 40th in the nation, giving up 206 ypg. now, it is here where after looking deeper. I see a major key in this matchup. Ucla's Pass Def playing against all the talented receivers and QB's that are in their conference this year is staggering. Compare this to Fresno St's Pass Off only gaing 196 ypg against the weak defense of the Wac, tells me that this pass game SUCKS! If you cant run on Ucla'a 22nd ranked Run Def, and your pass game SUCKS. How it Fresno St is to do anything on Off. (HUMONGOUS ADV for UCLA)
Now, here is also a statistic which also reflects the advantage Ucla has in this game. It is based on the Yards Per Play Statistic (YPP). This statistic shows who good at dominating the line of scrimmage. Based on all the teams in this years Bowl games. Fresno St based on this has the worst YPP of all Bowl team with a -.6 differential. Ucla also has a negative YPP and ranks third worst with -.3 differential. Still, I again remind you of the level of competition of the Pac-10 this year, especially with the stud RB's that this conference was loaded with.
Now Ucla did end their season on a 0-4 SU and Ats slide, but Fresno St was not that much better. Also I know that Fresno St may have all the motivation in this one, and that they are a home team, but I must go with the Ucla team which beat some good teams this year, until they suffered some injuries which left them unmanned against their Pac-10 opponents. And remember this slide came against Pac-10 opponents not Wac. I feel that in the end, and based on these statistics, along with a gift of -3 pts. The talent of the Pac will in the end show why they have the best talent from the West and why the Wac is no Pac. Good Luck to all today and Lets Bank This Bad Boy Tonight! Aloha Co-Captain.
(Big Loser!)
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 31, 2003 at 03:35 AM.]
Before I list my reasoning for my selection, here is my selection for those that dont like to read. Play UCLA -3 for 7 Unit Play of the Month. Now on to my reasons, for this play.
First off, the Pac-10 vs the WAC, when this happens, we have a situation where it is an automatic play on the Pac-10 team against the WAC opponent when favored by less than an TD favorite. This situation for me in the past has been a money maker for me. I used this reasoning as part of the total analysis for my selection on Oregon St. over NM. Now I know that the Lobos are in the MWC, but they used to be in the WAC. I still see them as just an extention of the WAC, as far as talent and type of football they play. Anyway, it worked.
Other reason for this reasoning has to simply be due to the differential in the two conferences as far as coaches and talent level of players. The Pac-10 is head and shoulders of the WAC, and it is to me a gift to have to lay less than a TD.
For this one, I will show the differences between the two teams, but they are based on the national statistics. I usually dont let my decision be based on statistics, but in this game with these two teams, it shows more strongly why Ucla is the call, and why the Pac is better than the Wac. At least in this one.
First, Ucla is ranked 109th in Total Off in the nation avg 305 ypg. Fresno St is 75th in the nation avg 357 ypg. Now remember that this ranking showing Fresno St having a better Off is very deceiving. For one, the level of competiton of both conf. What more telling about this stat is the fact that Fresno St from the weak Wac known for wead defenses has only averaged 357 ypg.
Next, for the Def, Ucla ranks 21st in the nation in Total Def giving up 320 ypg. Fresno St ranks 78th in the nation giving up 397 ypg. Look now at this huge difference here gang, while remembering the difference in conference each plays in. (HUGE ADV for UCLA)
Now, we need to break down and look alittle deeper into the comparison between the two teams today. After you see this I think you will see how this game based on personal, competition level, shows where the real differences in both squads.
Ucla's Run Off ranks 113th in the nation rushing for 94 ypg. Fresno St Run Def ranks 86th in the nation giving up 183 ypg. Now notice this huge amount of rush yards Fresno St gives up. Remember also that they play in the pass happy WAC. Looks like this Def is just the cure for the Ucla run game. (HUGE ADV for UCLA)
Fresno St Run Off ranks 50th in the nation avg 160 ypg. Ucla is 22nd in the nation and only gives up 114 ypg. Looks like a long day running for Fresno. (HUGE ADV for UCLA)
Ucla Pass Off ranks 67th in the nation passing for 212 ypg. Fresno St Pass Def ranks
50th in the nation allowing only 214 ypg. Now you may think because of the rankings it a good thing for Fresno St., well just remember the Def athletes that the Pac-10 has on Def compared to again the Wac and the athletes they have on Off. Fresno may have a good Pass Def, but it is based on there Wac competition.(BIG ADV for UCLA)
Fresno St Pass Off ranks 80th in the nation avg 196 ypg. Ucla Pass Def ranks 40th in the nation, giving up 206 ypg. now, it is here where after looking deeper. I see a major key in this matchup. Ucla's Pass Def playing against all the talented receivers and QB's that are in their conference this year is staggering. Compare this to Fresno St's Pass Off only gaing 196 ypg against the weak defense of the Wac, tells me that this pass game SUCKS! If you cant run on Ucla'a 22nd ranked Run Def, and your pass game SUCKS. How it Fresno St is to do anything on Off. (HUMONGOUS ADV for UCLA)
Now, here is also a statistic which also reflects the advantage Ucla has in this game. It is based on the Yards Per Play Statistic (YPP). This statistic shows who good at dominating the line of scrimmage. Based on all the teams in this years Bowl games. Fresno St based on this has the worst YPP of all Bowl team with a -.6 differential. Ucla also has a negative YPP and ranks third worst with -.3 differential. Still, I again remind you of the level of competition of the Pac-10 this year, especially with the stud RB's that this conference was loaded with.
Now Ucla did end their season on a 0-4 SU and Ats slide, but Fresno St was not that much better. Also I know that Fresno St may have all the motivation in this one, and that they are a home team, but I must go with the Ucla team which beat some good teams this year, until they suffered some injuries which left them unmanned against their Pac-10 opponents. And remember this slide came against Pac-10 opponents not Wac. I feel that in the end, and based on these statistics, along with a gift of -3 pts. The talent of the Pac will in the end show why they have the best talent from the West and why the Wac is no Pac. Good Luck to all today and Lets Bank This Bad Boy Tonight! Aloha Co-Captain.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 31, 2003 at 03:35 AM.]
