The sooner you get the word “trap” out of your handicapping arsenal, the better off you will be.
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In my opinion, this game appears to be fairly valued (I valued the game as DBack -122/Marlins +122). The game that was mispriced was yesterday’s game, where Webb opened at -135 and the line dropped 7 cents off the open. On a fundamental basis, it is clear they were worth more yesterday. On a relative basis, you can quickly conclude the same (Webb is more valuable than Haren, Olsen is more valuable than Miller). You have to like how Haren has been pitching, but his recent form appears to be recognized by the market place. One can make a case for a bit of smoke and mirrors in regards to recent form, as his groundball ratio has increased (not a good sign for a split pitcher prone to the long ball), and the disparity between BABIP and Well hit ratio has significantly increased (a sign of good luck rather than good pitching).
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We may have seen the best of Scott Olsen this year, but he is a dangerous underdog, as his performances or more dependent (and mental game) on his form than the fundamental matchup. Olsen is streaky, and has the ability to dominate any lineup. He is in an upward trend, with his monthly K/PA at a year high and B/PA at a year low to go along with the solid basic pitching stats this month. His past performances against the Dbacks are irrelevant, as they were generated when he was a different pitcher. The fundamental match up works in his favor. He is a pitcher who is dependent on getting hitters to chase out of the zone, while the DBacks are a free swinging lineup.
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With all that said, the Marlins are a team who has not possessed value for some time. They have been playing well over their heads, and the market has not fully discounted that notion. I see no value on either side, but if you choose the Dbacks, good luck today.
