you got 2 supposedly shut down rushing defenses going here.....and 2 big time backs.....stephen jackson comes with a big reputation but,has slowed down quite a bit toward the end of the year....he has just 2 100 yard games in his last 6.....teams seem to be stacking the line and forcing big,gawky derek anderson to beat them....he can burn you....but he he and the beavers make alot of mistakes....ha has 22 td`s and 23 ints....
dontrell moore seems to get stronger as the season progresses....this guy has a penchant for breaking off big runs....and qb kelly`s a dangerous runner himself.....
the key seems to be how many big plays the oregon st passing game can make vs how many mistakes anderson makes....new mexico`s pass defense isn`t world class,to say the least....and they blitz alot...that`s either gonna mean they`ll force anderson into mistakes or they`ll get burned in man to man coverage.....
another thing that bothers me is,actually how good are these pac 10 rushing defenses?......several have great stats....but how many prolific rushing attacks are there in the pac 10?.....
i think some of these pac 10 rushing defense stats may be a little misleading......
like rocky long as a coach....this is probably his best new mexico team....and playing a pac 10 team has to give them an emotional edge...playing in vegas has to be a slight advantage for new mexico
can their pass defense hold up and can they shake moore and kelly loose to make some big plays and pound what looks like a real good oregon st defense????...they could get shut down if that running game stalls...
another toughie..i saw that dave cokin has this as a goy.....i don`t put much credence in these guys,but have some respect for this guy from corresponding with him on another site....
..bought new mexico up to 3....wtf...
dontrell moore seems to get stronger as the season progresses....this guy has a penchant for breaking off big runs....and qb kelly`s a dangerous runner himself.....
the key seems to be how many big plays the oregon st passing game can make vs how many mistakes anderson makes....new mexico`s pass defense isn`t world class,to say the least....and they blitz alot...that`s either gonna mean they`ll force anderson into mistakes or they`ll get burned in man to man coverage.....
another thing that bothers me is,actually how good are these pac 10 rushing defenses?......several have great stats....but how many prolific rushing attacks are there in the pac 10?.....
i think some of these pac 10 rushing defense stats may be a little misleading......
like rocky long as a coach....this is probably his best new mexico team....and playing a pac 10 team has to give them an emotional edge...playing in vegas has to be a slight advantage for new mexico
can their pass defense hold up and can they shake moore and kelly loose to make some big plays and pound what looks like a real good oregon st defense????...they could get shut down if that running game stalls...
another toughie..i saw that dave cokin has this as a goy.....i don`t put much credence in these guys,but have some respect for this guy from corresponding with him on another site....
..bought new mexico up to 3....wtf...
This is your other buddy wayne root's take on the game from his free newsletter.
Running Wild In Sin City...
Two of the nation's top running backs will be on display in tonight's Las Vegas Bowl (7:30 PM ET, ESPN, OSU -2.5, o/u 51.5), Oregon State's Stephen Jackson and New Mexico's Dontrell Moore. Watch for an inspired effort from Jackson, who played high school football in Las Vegas and is playing in his final college game. There are actually a total of 7 Beavers from Las Vegas, so watch for them to play big in front of their friends and families. However OSU is limping into this game, while the Lobos are flying high. OSU (7-5) has lost four of their last six games and allowed 86 points in their final two, meanwhile New Mexico (8-4) has won three straight and seven of their last eight. OSU did have a much tougher schedule however, and plays in a tougher conference. And sometimes the break is all a team needs.
Running Wild In Sin City...
Two of the nation's top running backs will be on display in tonight's Las Vegas Bowl (7:30 PM ET, ESPN, OSU -2.5, o/u 51.5), Oregon State's Stephen Jackson and New Mexico's Dontrell Moore. Watch for an inspired effort from Jackson, who played high school football in Las Vegas and is playing in his final college game. There are actually a total of 7 Beavers from Las Vegas, so watch for them to play big in front of their friends and families. However OSU is limping into this game, while the Lobos are flying high. OSU (7-5) has lost four of their last six games and allowed 86 points in their final two, meanwhile New Mexico (8-4) has won three straight and seven of their last eight. OSU did have a much tougher schedule however, and plays in a tougher conference. And sometimes the break is all a team needs.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by packman:
how has Dave faired on his GOY picks?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
NFL: Houston +6 over Pats (W)
CFB: Colorado State -13 over SDSU (W)
knowing wayne root is on OSU - enuf to put me more on NM. say what you will about cokin - but in a contest between root and cokin - cokin would KILL HIM!
how has Dave faired on his GOY picks?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
NFL: Houston +6 over Pats (W)
CFB: Colorado State -13 over SDSU (W)
knowing wayne root is on OSU - enuf to put me more on NM. say what you will about cokin - but in a contest between root and cokin - cokin would KILL HIM!
This is william foots assessment if you can pick a winner out of that let me know.Oh yea didn't cookin have a goy on cleveland on mnf aganist st louis----st louis won ?
NCAA Foote Notes: Las Vegas Bowl
- Best line on New Mexico +2 –107 at Canbet Sports Spook
- Best line on Oregon State –1.5 -107 at Pinnacle Sports Spook
- Game goes at 4:30 PM PST, 7:30 PM EST
The Lobos and Beavers collide in a Christmas Eve duel from Merry “Lost Wages” this evening. New Mexico comes in at 8-4 SU and 7-4 ATS. On the road, the Lobos are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. Oregon State comes into this contest at 7-5 SU and 5-6 ATS. Away from Corvallis, the Beavers are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Quite honestly, this is one of the more interesting bowl games to handicap.
New Mexico led the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense and also total defense. Their offense was incredibly balanced, running and passing for 200+ yards a piece and scoring 31.5 points per game in the process. The Lobos finished the season on a 7-1 SU run their last eight and a 6-1 ATS run their last seven. And their statistical dominance to close the year was downright alarming.
New Mexico’s last five contests overall saw them out gain quality conference foes in Utah, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force and Wyoming by an average of 232 yards per game!!! Their star RB Moore is one of the very best in the country, rushing for a school-record 1,438 yards. On defense, the Lobos rank 4th in the nation against the run, with only Ohio State, LSU and USC ahead of them!!! At press, NMSU had already sold 5,500 tickets to this game, which means Sam Boyd Stadium will be heavily Lobo’s partisan.
For their part, Oregon State boasts the Pac-10 Conference's leading passer in Derek Anderson and also the leading rusher in Steven Jackson. The Beavers star running back rushed for 1,396 yards on a school-record 322 carries this season. They also have an incredible receiver in Newson, who set another Oregon State record with seven 100-yard receiving games, ending the regular season with 78 catches and better than 1,200 yards. Add it all up and the Beavers rank 1st in the Pac-10’s total offense category!
In addition to their incredible offense, Oregon State can play some defense as well. In fact, they are 7th in the nation in rush defense, permitting only 90 yards per game. Overall, OSU is a dangerous team that is loaded from top to bottom with quality athletes. Back in Mike Riley’s first go round in Corvallis, he started to rely heavily upon Junior College players to come in and make an immediate impact on the OSU program. Previously, the Beavers had a very difficult time matching the sort of athletes other Pac-10 schools were enrolling. This is the same strategy Kansas State has used and thrived at for years.
Oregon State went from being the laughing stock of the Pac-10, to a program that has attended three bowls in their last four seasons. Four years ago, OSU went 11-1 and finished as high as #4 in various polls. They actually pasted the Notre Dame 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl that season. We bring this up only because Conference Strength is particularly important when capping the bowls.
Remember, this very same Lobo’s bunch attended the Las Vegas Bowl last year and were matched up against a Pac-10 opponent. A decent, but certainly not great, Bruins team rolled New Mexico 27-13. In watching that contest, one aspect was crystal clear. New Mexico was simply outclassed from a talent standpoint. Offsetting this fact is that the MWC has been improving by the year and the Pac-10 in general was dismal at best season.
Here is the final assessment. Oregon State has the better players, but they are also a very undisciplined team. We watched many of their games this season and penalties and turnovers were the story in almost each. In fact, their QB Derek Anderson threw 23 picks, which was the most in the entire nation. As a team, OSU had 37 giveaways. And if there is a coach at the college level that is better at confusing quarterback’s than Rocky Long, we’re not sure who it is.
There is a decent technical argument here for the Lobos as well. Recall, they come in on a strong 6-1 ATS run and were 4-1 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, OSU has lost 8 of their last 11 ATS away from Corvallis. In addition, the Beavers are 1-7 ATS their last seven as a road favorite and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year. Note also that bowl dogs priced at +3 or less are 21-12 ATS the past four years. Even more interesting is that Pac-10 favorites that play prior to January 1 are 5-21 ATS their last twenty-six bowl games!!!
NCAA Foote Notes: Las Vegas Bowl
- Best line on New Mexico +2 –107 at Canbet Sports Spook
- Best line on Oregon State –1.5 -107 at Pinnacle Sports Spook
- Game goes at 4:30 PM PST, 7:30 PM EST
The Lobos and Beavers collide in a Christmas Eve duel from Merry “Lost Wages” this evening. New Mexico comes in at 8-4 SU and 7-4 ATS. On the road, the Lobos are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. Oregon State comes into this contest at 7-5 SU and 5-6 ATS. Away from Corvallis, the Beavers are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Quite honestly, this is one of the more interesting bowl games to handicap.
New Mexico led the Mountain West Conference in rushing defense and also total defense. Their offense was incredibly balanced, running and passing for 200+ yards a piece and scoring 31.5 points per game in the process. The Lobos finished the season on a 7-1 SU run their last eight and a 6-1 ATS run their last seven. And their statistical dominance to close the year was downright alarming.
New Mexico’s last five contests overall saw them out gain quality conference foes in Utah, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force and Wyoming by an average of 232 yards per game!!! Their star RB Moore is one of the very best in the country, rushing for a school-record 1,438 yards. On defense, the Lobos rank 4th in the nation against the run, with only Ohio State, LSU and USC ahead of them!!! At press, NMSU had already sold 5,500 tickets to this game, which means Sam Boyd Stadium will be heavily Lobo’s partisan.
For their part, Oregon State boasts the Pac-10 Conference's leading passer in Derek Anderson and also the leading rusher in Steven Jackson. The Beavers star running back rushed for 1,396 yards on a school-record 322 carries this season. They also have an incredible receiver in Newson, who set another Oregon State record with seven 100-yard receiving games, ending the regular season with 78 catches and better than 1,200 yards. Add it all up and the Beavers rank 1st in the Pac-10’s total offense category!
In addition to their incredible offense, Oregon State can play some defense as well. In fact, they are 7th in the nation in rush defense, permitting only 90 yards per game. Overall, OSU is a dangerous team that is loaded from top to bottom with quality athletes. Back in Mike Riley’s first go round in Corvallis, he started to rely heavily upon Junior College players to come in and make an immediate impact on the OSU program. Previously, the Beavers had a very difficult time matching the sort of athletes other Pac-10 schools were enrolling. This is the same strategy Kansas State has used and thrived at for years.
Oregon State went from being the laughing stock of the Pac-10, to a program that has attended three bowls in their last four seasons. Four years ago, OSU went 11-1 and finished as high as #4 in various polls. They actually pasted the Notre Dame 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl that season. We bring this up only because Conference Strength is particularly important when capping the bowls.
Remember, this very same Lobo’s bunch attended the Las Vegas Bowl last year and were matched up against a Pac-10 opponent. A decent, but certainly not great, Bruins team rolled New Mexico 27-13. In watching that contest, one aspect was crystal clear. New Mexico was simply outclassed from a talent standpoint. Offsetting this fact is that the MWC has been improving by the year and the Pac-10 in general was dismal at best season.
Here is the final assessment. Oregon State has the better players, but they are also a very undisciplined team. We watched many of their games this season and penalties and turnovers were the story in almost each. In fact, their QB Derek Anderson threw 23 picks, which was the most in the entire nation. As a team, OSU had 37 giveaways. And if there is a coach at the college level that is better at confusing quarterback’s than Rocky Long, we’re not sure who it is.
There is a decent technical argument here for the Lobos as well. Recall, they come in on a strong 6-1 ATS run and were 4-1 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, OSU has lost 8 of their last 11 ATS away from Corvallis. In addition, the Beavers are 1-7 ATS their last seven as a road favorite and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year. Note also that bowl dogs priced at +3 or less are 21-12 ATS the past four years. Even more interesting is that Pac-10 favorites that play prior to January 1 are 5-21 ATS their last twenty-six bowl games!!!
Regarding William Foote's assessment of this game....he's out to lunch. When he talks about UCLA outclassing New Mexico last year, he displays clearly that he neither watched the game or ever bothered to check any stats. New Mexico probably should have won last year's game...they basically gave it away. Statistically, the Lobos won FD's 15-9 and outgained the Bruins 282-167. How anyone can classify this as being outclassed is beyond me.
I'm taking my chances with the Lobos here. Seems as though every sucker (square, Joe Public, etc.) I know likes Oregon State. That doesn't mean the other side is automatic by any means, but in tandem with some pretty decent indicators that point to the underdog, I'm reasonably confident.
I'm taking my chances with the Lobos here. Seems as though every sucker (square, Joe Public, etc.) I know likes Oregon State. That doesn't mean the other side is automatic by any means, but in tandem with some pretty decent indicators that point to the underdog, I'm reasonably confident.
yea, i saw all the smart money ponding boise st last night, and the over for the 2nd half from 31 to 33-. the smart money sure move the piss out of those lines. the key is just betting against the right people, as they tend to loose more times than they win. good luck to all on what ever side you have tonight. but i'll take my chances betting agains smoking dave
pops...what are YOU smokin'? The sharp money was all over TCU last night! A crystal clear case of public vs. pros. So is this game...doesn't mean a thing, as a one game sample is not an indicator of anything. But over the long haul, one would obviously be best served by taking the sharp money stance in games where there'a clear division. As to this particular game, the fact that it opened at OSU -4 and went right through a key number early is a sound indicator of where the educated money is. The fact that it's going back up on game day is a further indicator, although the Boyd suspension might also be a factor (however, any savvy vet knows full well that overreacting to an injury/suspension is often a bad move).
Here's a suggestion to you, Pops. Learn to comprehend line movement and you'll be busier cashing winners than you likely are right now.
Here's a suggestion to you, Pops. Learn to comprehend line movement and you'll be busier cashing winners than you likely are right now.
so i had tcu, as well as tcu on the money line last night. dont know if i was that smart or not but the line at the station casino closed at +11- up from 10-. all i care about is cashing tickets, and counting more money at the end of the day than at the beginning. what i'm not smoking is dave's bull shit
