@acw
"To encourage you, yes, a database has given me some edges. To discourage you, you will make a lot more being able to lay 20 cent lines to some squares, which you can lay off at Even Money with line shopping than I have managed to make betting myself."
yeah but I d have to set up a small shop to do, because what with the competition at the exchanges, although I have not tried this, it's hard to see how I could take them on at a 20 cent line, probably at higher odds taking advantage of the favourite longshot bias would be easier but the risk would be greater too. Acw, do you still have an active database in soccer? I was thinking along the lines of something including all the basics, team line ups, budgets, leagues, ages, playing distances, goas etc. etc. plus such things as shots on goals, ball possesion, corners, fouls, even localised graphs of shots on goals there are some good resources for these, refs etc. and then maybe adding in few other factors (if I can, which for most I am sure I can find) such as weather, wind, humidity, attendances etc. etc. You got my email get in touch if you want to talk about the particulars.
@Salain
Thanks for your input buddy, much appreciated.
".I've used combinations of C++/XML/SQL/PHP/Excel, but whatever you're most comfortable with is fine."
Well for the time being excel would be it, but for reasons other than my betting interests I should soon be profficient (well, at least good enough) in the rest too (I ve just resumed a cs major from a 3 year hiatus I d gone to work)
"I haven't used any outside statistics packages, but I've read a couple of stat books and papers on binomial distributions. If it's been awhile, I'd definitely recommend checking one out."
I 've brushed up on the basics, and I ve taken a few relevant statistical papers about forecasting (wrt gambling and financial markets too) and a couple of more advanced books.
"If you're like me, you'll want to see this for yourself...but there are very few things that one can exploit from the data that are profitable over the long term"
Hmm, it's the double sword...and yes I am like you, I like to look things for myself. I suppose you are refering to baseball though or basketball judging by your locale, right? I know for a fact that there are some people who have produced profitable prediction models in football who manage to do consistently well.
"I certainly haven't looked at everything, but I've tried a LOT of different things that did not work. I would highly recommend it as a source of knowledge which can be put to very good use, but there's a very small chance of directly finding any exploitable situation."
A can sense what you mean when you say a LOT, it really must mean a lot, I am at the moment feeling a bit like my hands are tied, I d prefer trying different things and failing, instead o havin to wonder what if and not being able to put a hypothesis to the test, which I am sure has been your motivation too. But what's the difference between a source of knowledge as you say being put to a good use, and directly finding an exploitable situation, it's hard for me to grasp the distinction...
"All of that being said, there's no better way to do it. Let me know if you have specific questions, and I'll answer what I can."
Thanks a lot, like I said much appreciated, won't have anything done the coming month or so, but I hope there'll be some steady progress.
@quantumleap
"I'll send you an email from my Bill Green email account some time on Saturday. Get it? Green bills, Bill Green. I use it to fill out forms that require an address. I put my address down as 20 E. Greenway Road. LOL!"
I ll be waiting for the cash then, he, he..
"What I mean by this is that past numbers are not always accurate for the short-term. Things such as long road trips, injuries and other intangibles must be taken into consideration for these will have a large influence on the line."
I was hoping to factor all that in too, first of all calibrate the extent to which a long trip say effects a result, or the relative weight of injuries on the line (this of course is much more qualitative, but I can't see why if one has some basic end season player stats and the games they missed during the year why they wont be able to correlate the two and arrive at some basic datum for the influnce), if one can find some back data.
"What I mean by this is that past numbers are not always accurate for the short-term."
Sure, I see what you mean.
Jack.