~Dan Gordon's Beat the Sports Books~ Is A Worthwhile Read For Those Who Like To Bet NFL Games Against The Spread!!!!!!!

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Generally, I'm disappointed at the quality of books available on sports betting. Some reports analyze the critical question of what enables football games to cover the point spread teams. The Reports are based on a study of every NFL game and every lined college football game played over the past 26 seasons (1988 through 2013) and reveal characteristics that have led to success vs. the point spread. These Reports reveal facts, not theories!. Utilizing comparative analysis, the Method enables you to determine an accurate line between two teams using basic team stats (rushing, passing, points, etc.). You need only to know basic math and a pocket calculator will greatly speed up the handicapping process. Simply do the math and compare the result to the pointspread to determine the selection and its strength Among the books available, though, Dan Gordon's is certainly one of the better ones. He provides good handicapping information and avoids many mathematical pitfalls that hobble the work of other authors. Beat the Sports Books is a worthwhile read for those who like to bet NFL games against the spread. I can easily imagine a better book on the topic, but such a book or analysis on point spreads hasn't been published yet. In the mean time, this may be the best one on the market.


P$. Other sports handicappers may tell you they have the lock of the century or some piece of golden information they found out from their buddy who knows a guy who sold the sports equipment to a little league team in Green Bay, but we as group [ J.J.,Smitty, Benny, Bee Bee and Myself don’t do sports handicapping that way – No Sir !!, We do it Right!!. We analyze all weekly games in NFL and make informed decisions based on our years of sports handicapping. You can bet on it? We all do!!!
P$$. Here are generally two types of sports gamblers as previously stated in my past thread or post. There are those who pick up the schedule and look at the point spreads for each game and say, "Eight points are too many, I'm betting the underdog," or there are those who will pick up the schedule and compare the point spreads to their own numbers and say, "This team is favored by eight points, yet I only have them winning by three, so I'll bet the underdog." Simply stated, power ratings are numbers that show the projected disparity between teams in points from a mathematical perspective. While the point spread has to factor in public opinion, power ratings do not, and for that reason alone, should be more accurate than the point spread more times than not. The fact that most successful sports bettors will most definitely fall into the second category, tells you all you need to know whether it's worth your time and effort to use power ratings for betting NFL football as a tool A very important tool and about 80% true ** J.J. Bascus power rating] we all as a group use this as betting tool for our NFL picks. ~ITS YOUR CALL RX MEMBERS & FRIENDS !!!!!!????~ AND GOOD LUCK TO EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU THIS SEASON !!!!
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
 

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I will be using my personal power ratings for the NFL and CFB this season for the first time. I will be interested to see how it plays out and how effective it will be against the lines. Good luck to you this season Harry.
 

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I have an older version of his book and like his ideas. His power ranking concepts are a good and easy starting pt. He looks at forecasted wins for each team at the start of the season and uses that to base his power ratings

ie Historically over the past 25 yrs, teams that win 6 games avg 18 pts/g, 8 win team 21 pts, 10 win 24 pts. He then assigns that point power rating to each team based on their expected wins

His system is very accurate as I have compared his rating #s to the most recent 15 yrs and they are very similar. He adjusts his ratings up or down too based on actual performance.

I use his system but also do my own estimate of points scored and allowed for each team based on previous yr + all changes in the offseason. But it provides a good reality check.
 
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I will be using my personal power ratings for the NFL and CFB this season for the first time. I will be interested to see how it plays out and how effective it will be against the lines. Good luck to you this season Harry.
Thanks for your reply Bad_Cat and good luck on your personal power ratings for the NFL. Best Of Luck this year Bad_Cat !!!!!!
 
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I have an older version of his book and like his ideas. His power ranking concepts are a good and easy starting pt. He looks at forecasted wins for each team at the start of the season and uses that to base his power ratings

ie Historically over the past 25 yrs, teams that win 6 games avg 18 pts/g, 8 win team 21 pts, 10 win 24 pts. He then assigns that point power rating to each team based on their expected wins

His system is very accurate as I have compared his rating #s to the most recent 15 yrs and they are very similar. He adjusts his ratings up or down too based on actual performance.

I use his system but also do my own estimate of points scored and allowed for each team based on previous yr + all changes in the offseason. But it provides a good reality check.
His system is good way to start jgm4661, its easy to understand and like you said "it is very accurate" !!! Great for Novice, who just starting out handcapping games in NFL. Iam more a Bob Martin type of guy !!! LOL!! But don't misunderstand me the concepts are good !!!!!
 

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Here is a good example of how reasonable his system is for 2 teams w out any injuries in Week 1. Rating again is avg pts/game for teams who avg that # of wins.

MIA Expected wins 9 - Rating 22.5
WAS Expected wins 6 - Rating 18
Home field adv (hfa) - 2.5

So Line should be MIA - WAS rating - hfa = 22.5 - 18 -2.5 = 2.5
MIA -2.5

Actual line is MIA -2.5 so pretty accurate
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Here is a line w some value per Gordon

BUF 8.5w - 22
IND 10.5 w - 25
hfa 2.5

Line should be IND-BUF - hfa = 25-22 -2.5 = .5

Actual Line

IND - 2.5

So it looks inflated and BUF +2.5 has some value.
 

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Correction: Did the math in haste It should be MIA -2 not -2.5. Still pretty accurate
 
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Correction: Did the math in haste It should be MIA -2 not -2.5. Still pretty accurate
Thanks for info jgm4661!!!! always appreciated !!! However I read the book too my friend. Winning at sports betting is “all in the numbers, all in the timing.“The secret is patience. You always have the action. But you need to pick your spots. You need to exercise self-control.” I am very selective with my plays. I research the entire card finding the play that that has best chance of winning my bet.The most important rule to sports betting rule to bet 5% or less of your current total bankroll at all times. Pressing a win play one time on the following game pick is a must. I probably leaned more about point spreads and money lines from some great old school sports betters there. A rule of thought "follow the money. "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. My ability to pick winners consistently is second to none and with my money management system.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT




 
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Theory about Sports ratings systems use a variety of methods for rating teams, but the most prevalent method is called a power rating. The power rating of a team is a calculation of the team’s strength relative to other teams in the same league or division. The basic idea is to maximize the amount of transitive relations in a given data set due to game outcomes. For example, if A defeats B and B defeats C, then one can safely say that A>B>C.Jeff Sagarin’s systems, the NY Times system, and the Dunkel Index, are some good examples. I personal use J.J. Basus power rating system which he is in our group, is very close to 80% true. Last season his rating was about 75% true.. While history does not always repeat itself perfectly, it does provide some valuable insight into behaviors and/oroutcomes of certain events. If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term.



Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

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