I took Det +7 after Suh was ruled in but I think it is 6.5 everywhere now.
The biggest reason the line is a little inflated is because of how subpar Stafford has been vs good comp. 0-16 on the road vs teams with winning records and 3-31 overall. Some of that has merit but some is just extreme variance. Not like Dallas has a good D and the weather conditions will be fine. Also for a large majority of those games, the Lions did not have anything close to resembling the defense they have right now.
Lions had the #1 run D in the league this year and according to footballoutsiders had the best run D since the 2000 Ravens on a per play basis. Dallas won a lot of games this year just giving Murray the ball 30 times, probably won't be able to do that vs Det.
The biggest reason the line is a little inflated is because of how subpar Stafford has been vs good comp. 0-16 on the road vs teams with winning records and 3-31 overall. Some of that has merit but some is just extreme variance. Not like Dallas has a good D and the weather conditions will be fine. Also for a large majority of those games, the Lions did not have anything close to resembling the defense they have right now.
Lions had the #1 run D in the league this year and according to footballoutsiders had the best run D since the 2000 Ravens on a per play basis. Dallas won a lot of games this year just giving Murray the ball 30 times, probably won't be able to do that vs Det.
The other team that is +6.5 this weekend doesn't have Stafford at QB. They got this guy....
Among quarterbacks with 200 or more passes since Lindley entered the league in 2012, he’s last in completion percentage (50.8), yards per attempt (5.0), adjusted net yards per attempt (2.6), touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.2, with two touchdowns against 11 picks), and passer rating (50.3).
Among quarterbacks with 200 or more passes since Lindley entered the league in 2012, he’s last in completion percentage (50.8), yards per attempt (5.0), adjusted net yards per attempt (2.6), touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.2, with two touchdowns against 11 picks), and passer rating (50.3).
With this being the playoffs I do have a tendency to throw out all the trends of the regular season. I do happen to think Dallas is ripe for a blowout win here. Nothing against Detroit but Dallas is just that much better and the tensity is going to a whole new level here. I'm expecting up tempo by Dallas today to wear down that Detroit defense. Suh was gassing in that Packer game.
