Obviously known has been Daks relatively poorer performance as of late.
Cowboys have been one of the teams I've followed pretty closely this season and so it got me thinking about when I’ve seen him at his best and his worst. Ultimately what occurred to me is that most games where I felt Dak was really off with his throwing/decision making were actually played at night.
Aside from the pressure of prime time games, you would also have to consider the effect the lateness has on players routines with how their weekly routines would involve getting up early and practice normally not being so late in the day.
Prime time games (8.30PM)
1. That Philly game where they were lucky to win in OT: 19/39 for 287 (48.7%), 1 TD and 1 pick. Yes he led that spectacularly composed final drive which washed away the rest of his performance that game. Purely frustrating, including the pick inside Philly 5 just before the half.
2. The Vikings match on Thursday night (No short week effect for either team): 12/18 (66.7%) for only 139 yards, 1 TD. Although he has a decent completion percentage, this was because he was hesitant and reluctant to pull the trigger, often having just enough time but pulling it back and then basically killing the momentum of the play. Decent pressure was brought to the Vikings credit though.
3. The recent NYG; 16.37 (45.9%) for only 165 yds, 1 TD and 2 picks. This was just painful to watch. Interestingly when you look at his first game against NYG it was nothing spectacular either (25/45 -- 55% but with 227 yards, 0-0). But it was still much better. So even though he had 13 or so weeks to improve/ shake off any rookie factors, he had an even worse game (QBR1 = 69.4 versus the recent QBR of 45.4).
4. Was against Chicago and he had a very solid game 19/24 79.2% for 248 yards, 1 TD.
Compare these night games to the only two early games Dallas have played (Excluding the Washington London game if you’re a purist).
1. The Browns, so I guess we’ll just exclude that even though he lit them up with 3 tds.
2. Another defensively strong team; The Ravens. 27/36 --75% for 301 yds, 3 tds. In the zone indeed.
Then you look at his afternoon games, and nothing apart from the Pittsburgh game (week with a lot of defensive injuries/problems) comes close to being as good as the earlier-in-the-day performances, nor does anything as bad come close to the mostly poor night prime time performances. One that should also get a mention here was the thanksgiving game against Washington (not at night, but prime time in which he had a mediocre performance - only 195 yds - a large chunk of which game from the screen to elliot)
Whether it be the pressure of prime time games or the deviation away from routine getting to dak is uncertain, but it could be a mixture of both? Also I should mention I'm not trying to entirely put the blame solely on Dak, but it seems that Elliot, the o-line and the d mostly did their part in each of these poor games.
Of course it would still not be possible to say for sure that the 8.30pm primetime games are the very main reason he hasn't performed when considering all the variables (differing team strengths/match ups/how the ball decided to bounce on the day etc.) but it was an idea I had and thought I would share. I guess if one wanted to investigate this further, you could go and check out some of his stats from previous night games in college?
One thing that would be especially difficult to disentangle within this theory is the fact that at the time* each of those 3 teams Dallas played at night did already have a solid D which brought pressure/ good coverage (Philly pre injuries?/Vikings post getting key defensive players back/Giants solid D has carried them most of the way this season). But then again so did Baltimore in the early game mentioned.
If anything though, this might further support the case for going against Dallas this week with the +7 when considering Tampas defensive stats since they came alive in that game against KC - 12.8 points allowed per game/forced 12 turnovers/held opposing quarterbacks to 62.5 QBR.
What do you guys think?
Cowboys have been one of the teams I've followed pretty closely this season and so it got me thinking about when I’ve seen him at his best and his worst. Ultimately what occurred to me is that most games where I felt Dak was really off with his throwing/decision making were actually played at night.
Aside from the pressure of prime time games, you would also have to consider the effect the lateness has on players routines with how their weekly routines would involve getting up early and practice normally not being so late in the day.
Prime time games (8.30PM)
1. That Philly game where they were lucky to win in OT: 19/39 for 287 (48.7%), 1 TD and 1 pick. Yes he led that spectacularly composed final drive which washed away the rest of his performance that game. Purely frustrating, including the pick inside Philly 5 just before the half.
2. The Vikings match on Thursday night (No short week effect for either team): 12/18 (66.7%) for only 139 yards, 1 TD. Although he has a decent completion percentage, this was because he was hesitant and reluctant to pull the trigger, often having just enough time but pulling it back and then basically killing the momentum of the play. Decent pressure was brought to the Vikings credit though.
3. The recent NYG; 16.37 (45.9%) for only 165 yds, 1 TD and 2 picks. This was just painful to watch. Interestingly when you look at his first game against NYG it was nothing spectacular either (25/45 -- 55% but with 227 yards, 0-0). But it was still much better. So even though he had 13 or so weeks to improve/ shake off any rookie factors, he had an even worse game (QBR1 = 69.4 versus the recent QBR of 45.4).
4. Was against Chicago and he had a very solid game 19/24 79.2% for 248 yards, 1 TD.
Compare these night games to the only two early games Dallas have played (Excluding the Washington London game if you’re a purist).
1. The Browns, so I guess we’ll just exclude that even though he lit them up with 3 tds.
2. Another defensively strong team; The Ravens. 27/36 --75% for 301 yds, 3 tds. In the zone indeed.
Then you look at his afternoon games, and nothing apart from the Pittsburgh game (week with a lot of defensive injuries/problems) comes close to being as good as the earlier-in-the-day performances, nor does anything as bad come close to the mostly poor night prime time performances. One that should also get a mention here was the thanksgiving game against Washington (not at night, but prime time in which he had a mediocre performance - only 195 yds - a large chunk of which game from the screen to elliot)
Whether it be the pressure of prime time games or the deviation away from routine getting to dak is uncertain, but it could be a mixture of both? Also I should mention I'm not trying to entirely put the blame solely on Dak, but it seems that Elliot, the o-line and the d mostly did their part in each of these poor games.
Of course it would still not be possible to say for sure that the 8.30pm primetime games are the very main reason he hasn't performed when considering all the variables (differing team strengths/match ups/how the ball decided to bounce on the day etc.) but it was an idea I had and thought I would share. I guess if one wanted to investigate this further, you could go and check out some of his stats from previous night games in college?
One thing that would be especially difficult to disentangle within this theory is the fact that at the time* each of those 3 teams Dallas played at night did already have a solid D which brought pressure/ good coverage (Philly pre injuries?/Vikings post getting key defensive players back/Giants solid D has carried them most of the way this season). But then again so did Baltimore in the early game mentioned.
If anything though, this might further support the case for going against Dallas this week with the +7 when considering Tampas defensive stats since they came alive in that game against KC - 12.8 points allowed per game/forced 12 turnovers/held opposing quarterbacks to 62.5 QBR.
What do you guys think?
