Pitch count affecting Ponson's command
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert" id="memberSincePH"><dt>robert - Subscriber since 10/09/2005</dt></dl> <script type="text/javascript">memberServices.MemberSince.run();</script>
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 11, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: MONDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Ponson
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Pitch count key to Ponson's effectiveness
Pitcher Sidney Ponson is having his first good season since 2003, with a 7-2 record and 4.23 ERA in 16 starts between the Rangers and Yankees. Considering his bad off-field behavior and performance decline -- an ERA in the 6.00 range each of the past three seasons -- fans might wonder why teams keep giving Ponson a chance. Since 2007, he has thrown strikes on 63 percent of his 91 mph fastballs, right around league average, which gives him some value. Ponson has put together two straight strong starts, allowing three runs and eight hits over 13 1/3 innings. Managing Ponson's workload seems to be a key to maximizing his effectiveness. He hits a wall after he throws around 185 total pitches in two consecutive outings on normal four-day rest, severely reducing the effectiveness of his next start: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Ponson on normal rest (2007-08)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Total pitch count in
previous two starts</td> <td>OPS against</td> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>Strike pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>185 and under</td> <td>.723</td> <td>.252</td> <td>61.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Over 185</td> <td>.921</td> <td>.355</td> <td>61.6</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Although Ponson's control -- his strike percentage -- stays consistent, fatigue seems to compromise his command within the strike zone. Strikes on the corners and at the bottom of the zone are quality strikes. Pitches through the heart of the zone are hitters' strikes. In starts following combined high-pitch outings, Ponson throws fewer quality strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Ponson's pitches in strike zone (2007-08)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Total pitch count in
previous two starts</td> <td>Quality strikes %</td> <td>Hitters' strikes %</td> <td>In-play %</td> <td>BAVG against</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>185 and under</td> <td>29.0</td> <td>71.0</td> <td>53.2</td> <td>.275</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Over 185</td> <td>18.1</td> <td>81.9</td> <td>59.2</td> <td>.378</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Since joining the Yankees' rotation in late June, Ponson has not made any starts after throwing 185 or more within the previous 10 days. He came close on July 27, pitching on five days' rest after tossing 183 pitches in his previous two starts. That was his worst outing of the season; he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in four innings in a loss to Boston, and demonstrated his difficulty recovering after moderately high-pitch counts. Danger could be lurking when Ponson faces the Twins tonight. He threw 96 pitches on Aug. 1 and 95 on Aug. 6 for a combined total of 191. The last time Ponson made a start after so many pitches was on June 4 (195 pitches in previous two). Ponson gave up six runs (two earned) in four innings in the loss before getting released by the Rangers. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Lowe
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Good chance Lowe will sink Phils
Derek Lowe had one of those days in his most recent outing, Wednesday in St. Louis. The Dodgers' sinkerballer got his usual allotment of ground balls, 13 to be exact, but seven went for hits. The Cardinals collected six more knocks from the seven balls they lifted in the air that day. The result was Lowe's shortest outing of the season and one he'd like to make up for, starting today. Fortunately for Lowe, his sinking fastball is something that has worked wonders in the past against today's opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies. Excluding pitcher's at-bats, current Phillies are batting a combined .169 (11-for-65) against Lowe since 2006, and only Pat Burrell posts better than a .300 average against the Dodgers right-hander in his career. As is typically the case for Lowe, if he can keep his sinking fastball down, he should have success. Here is how current Phillies hitters have done against his low sinkers the past two seasons: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Vs. Lowe's sinker located down in the zone since 2006</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Hitter</td> <td>BAVG</td> <td>H</td> <td>AB</td> <td>GB</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase Utley</td> <td>.500</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pat Burrell</td> <td>.333</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Geoff Jenkins</td> <td>.250</td> <td>1</td> <td>4</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>All other Phillies hitter</td> <td>.000</td> <td>0</td> <td>14</td> <td>10</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>TOTAL</td> <td>.130</td> <td>3</td> <td>23</td> <td>16</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Phillies have scored a total of just five earned runs in 23 2/3 innings and batted .250 this season against Arizona's Brandon Webb and Atlanta's Tim Hudson, two other right-handed NL starters who rely heavily on the sinkerball. Lowe will face the Phillies for the first time this season Monday night. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Martinez
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Pedro shelves his slider
Pedro Martinez has been effective in two starts since returning to the Mets from the bereavement list, allowing five earned runs (on five home runs) with eight strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. He's also done it without his slider, choosing instead to throw almost twice as many curveballs and a few more changeups: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Martinez pitch selection</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>DATE</td> <td>FASTBALL %</td> <td>CURVE %</td> <td>CHANGE %</td> <td>SLIDER %</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Last two starts</td> <td>55.3</td> <td>22.3</td> <td>22.3</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Earlier in season</td> <td>59.3</td> <td>12.3</td> <td>17.8</td> <td>9.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> It's a smart adjustment by Pedro, because his slider has been by far his least effective breaking pitch. Meanwhile, his curveball has been nearly impossible to hit, with just three singles all season on 37 at-bats ending on a curve: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="250"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="2">Breaking pitch comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>PITCH</td> <td>BAVG AGAINST</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Curve</td> <td>.081</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slider</td> <td>.385</td></tr> </tbody></table> If he decides to stick with it, Pedro's streamlined repertoire should continue to serve him well today against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has hit .237 against sliders from right-handers, above the .221 league average (through Saturday).
Daily Notes for Monday: Sox-versus-Sox series finishes up
Madison
By Adam Madison
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)
t
Josh Beckett and John Danks face off in the last game of a four-game series with playoff implications. Danks has been a pleasant surprise for the White Sox, with a sub-3.00 ERA for most of the season. But he allowed five home runs in July and had a 4.97 ERA. If Danks can make it through at least two innings on Monday, he surpasses his innings total from 2007, which is dangerous for a 23-year-old on a team in the midst of a playoff chase. As for Beckett, he has pitched better than his 4.08 ERA suggests, but an unlucky .314 batting average on balls in play has kept his numbers modest. Beckett, a fly-ball pitcher, should be one of the primary pitchers helped by Jason Bay's improved defense over Manny Ramirez in left field, which should help bring that BABIP down.
Injury report
Out
Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins (foot)
Carlos Lee, OF, Astros (finger)
Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (quadriceps)
Ryan Braun, 3B/OF, Brewers (back)
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets (hip)
Ken Griffey Jr., OF, White Sox (soreness)
Carlos Guillen, SS/1B/3B, Tigers (back)
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates (thumb)
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays (hamstring)
Jack Wilson, SS, Pirates (shoulder)
Tyler Yates, RP, Pirates (personal)
Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .283 in 46 at-bats, with eight walks to six strikeouts, since rejoining the team in July, but with just two doubles and zero home runs, the power has yet to return. Zimmerman has enough downside given the lack of lineup support he gets, so if the power doesn't return soon, it might be time to punt him.
John Danks has had a good run, but he has struggled recently and has a tough assignment on Monday.
Pitchers: We already mention Danks' recent struggles in the lead, and it's worth noting here that the Red Sox are the majors' best offensive team versus lefties (.826 team OPS). …
Fausto Carmona was wild in his previous start against the Rays, throwing just 41 of his 83 pitches for strikes and walking five batters. With four strikeouts in four innings and six groundballs to two fly balls, there's no need to get concerned for him long term. That said, the Orioles are hitting .294 as a team since the All-Star break, so keep Carmona reserved. …
Justin Verlander allowed 18 runs in his past 17 1/3 innings, but I wouldn't be too concerned. Verlander had an eight-start streak of allowing two earned runs or fewer before this rough stretch, and he has the excuse of having three starts against two division rivals, both of which already saw him this season. Verlander had 22 strikeouts during that stretch, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt against the Blue Jays. …
On Monday, Jonathan Sanchez tries to make it into the seventh inning for the first time in six starts. He faces the Astros, who just lost Carlos Lee for what looks like the season. The Astros replace Lee with a nonfactor (likely Darin Erstad), which makes what was already an appealing matchup a lot tastier. … The homer-prone Josh Beckett hasn't been a fan of the White Sox and U.S. Cellular Field, as he has allowed four souvenirs in 18 2/3 innings there in his career. The White Sox have hit the most home runs in the majors, and about 60 percent of those have been hit at home. …
Derek Lowe is sporting a career 3.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 61 career starts at Dodger Stadium, including a 2.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this season. A strong rebound from his disastrous start in St. Louis should be in order.
Waiver-wire pickups
Hitters: Kevin Millar has been on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .282 with six home runs in just 78 at-bats. He has a history of improved production in the second half, and he already has 18 home runs, his most since 2004. … Hitting .330 since July has helped Melvin Mora drive in 31 runs in 31 games during that span. It's a fairly empty batting average otherwise, but with his teammates hitting well and since he's in a prime spot in the lineup, Mora is a decent pickup. … Adam Lind, hitting .355 since the break, was moved to the cleanup spot on Saturday, and with Vernon Wells coming off the disabled list, he should see an increase in opportunities to drive in hitters.
Pitchers: Pedro Martinez is looking closer and closer to unusable, showing an inability to pitch deep into games and allowing a whopping 13 home runs in his 56 innings this season, including five his past two starts. The Pirates offer a great matchup for Martinez to rebound, but wait to see the Martinez of old first. …
Dave Bush has a 3.29 ERA his past 13 starts, but because he started off with a 6.62 ERA in his first eight starts, his season marks sits at just 4.50. As a result, he hasn't gotten proper respect in fantasy leagues. He has had a nice run of six outings with one run or less allowed during that stretch, and the lowly Nationals have a good shot at making it seven. …
Shaun Marcum is assuredly smiling with Vernon Wells expected to return to the lineup Monday. More run support should result with Wells replacing Brad Wilkerson, and importantly to Marcum, the defense should improve for a squad who already is tied for sixth in defensive efficiency. As for Monday's start against the Tigers, though, Marcum has been only decent in his career versus the Tigers, so don't risk him on the road.
Weather concerns
The Pirates and Mets have the most significant chance of rain, with a 40 to 50 percent chance of storms. The Orioles-Indians and Cardinals-Marlins both have a 30 percent chance of rain. … The Nationals-Brewers, Giants-Astros and Yankees-Twins are the weatherproof games of the day.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert" id="memberSincePH"><dt>robert - Subscriber since 10/09/2005</dt></dl> <script type="text/javascript">memberServices.MemberSince.run();</script>
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 11, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: MONDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Pitch count key to Ponson's effectiveness
Pitcher Sidney Ponson is having his first good season since 2003, with a 7-2 record and 4.23 ERA in 16 starts between the Rangers and Yankees. Considering his bad off-field behavior and performance decline -- an ERA in the 6.00 range each of the past three seasons -- fans might wonder why teams keep giving Ponson a chance. Since 2007, he has thrown strikes on 63 percent of his 91 mph fastballs, right around league average, which gives him some value. Ponson has put together two straight strong starts, allowing three runs and eight hits over 13 1/3 innings. Managing Ponson's workload seems to be a key to maximizing his effectiveness. He hits a wall after he throws around 185 total pitches in two consecutive outings on normal four-day rest, severely reducing the effectiveness of his next start: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Ponson on normal rest (2007-08)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Total pitch count in
previous two starts</td> <td>OPS against</td> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>Strike pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>185 and under</td> <td>.723</td> <td>.252</td> <td>61.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Over 185</td> <td>.921</td> <td>.355</td> <td>61.6</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Although Ponson's control -- his strike percentage -- stays consistent, fatigue seems to compromise his command within the strike zone. Strikes on the corners and at the bottom of the zone are quality strikes. Pitches through the heart of the zone are hitters' strikes. In starts following combined high-pitch outings, Ponson throws fewer quality strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Ponson's pitches in strike zone (2007-08)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Total pitch count in
previous two starts</td> <td>Quality strikes %</td> <td>Hitters' strikes %</td> <td>In-play %</td> <td>BAVG against</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>185 and under</td> <td>29.0</td> <td>71.0</td> <td>53.2</td> <td>.275</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Over 185</td> <td>18.1</td> <td>81.9</td> <td>59.2</td> <td>.378</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Since joining the Yankees' rotation in late June, Ponson has not made any starts after throwing 185 or more within the previous 10 days. He came close on July 27, pitching on five days' rest after tossing 183 pitches in his previous two starts. That was his worst outing of the season; he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in four innings in a loss to Boston, and demonstrated his difficulty recovering after moderately high-pitch counts. Danger could be lurking when Ponson faces the Twins tonight. He threw 96 pitches on Aug. 1 and 95 on Aug. 6 for a combined total of 191. The last time Ponson made a start after so many pitches was on June 4 (195 pitches in previous two). Ponson gave up six runs (two earned) in four innings in the loss before getting released by the Rangers. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Good chance Lowe will sink Phils
Derek Lowe had one of those days in his most recent outing, Wednesday in St. Louis. The Dodgers' sinkerballer got his usual allotment of ground balls, 13 to be exact, but seven went for hits. The Cardinals collected six more knocks from the seven balls they lifted in the air that day. The result was Lowe's shortest outing of the season and one he'd like to make up for, starting today. Fortunately for Lowe, his sinking fastball is something that has worked wonders in the past against today's opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies. Excluding pitcher's at-bats, current Phillies are batting a combined .169 (11-for-65) against Lowe since 2006, and only Pat Burrell posts better than a .300 average against the Dodgers right-hander in his career. As is typically the case for Lowe, if he can keep his sinking fastball down, he should have success. Here is how current Phillies hitters have done against his low sinkers the past two seasons: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Vs. Lowe's sinker located down in the zone since 2006</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Hitter</td> <td>BAVG</td> <td>H</td> <td>AB</td> <td>GB</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase Utley</td> <td>.500</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pat Burrell</td> <td>.333</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Geoff Jenkins</td> <td>.250</td> <td>1</td> <td>4</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>All other Phillies hitter</td> <td>.000</td> <td>0</td> <td>14</td> <td>10</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>TOTAL</td> <td>.130</td> <td>3</td> <td>23</td> <td>16</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Phillies have scored a total of just five earned runs in 23 2/3 innings and batted .250 this season against Arizona's Brandon Webb and Atlanta's Tim Hudson, two other right-handed NL starters who rely heavily on the sinkerball. Lowe will face the Phillies for the first time this season Monday night. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Pedro shelves his slider
Pedro Martinez has been effective in two starts since returning to the Mets from the bereavement list, allowing five earned runs (on five home runs) with eight strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. He's also done it without his slider, choosing instead to throw almost twice as many curveballs and a few more changeups: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Martinez pitch selection</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>DATE</td> <td>FASTBALL %</td> <td>CURVE %</td> <td>CHANGE %</td> <td>SLIDER %</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Last two starts</td> <td>55.3</td> <td>22.3</td> <td>22.3</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Earlier in season</td> <td>59.3</td> <td>12.3</td> <td>17.8</td> <td>9.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> It's a smart adjustment by Pedro, because his slider has been by far his least effective breaking pitch. Meanwhile, his curveball has been nearly impossible to hit, with just three singles all season on 37 at-bats ending on a curve: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="250"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="2">Breaking pitch comparison</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>PITCH</td> <td>BAVG AGAINST</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Curve</td> <td>.081</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slider</td> <td>.385</td></tr> </tbody></table> If he decides to stick with it, Pedro's streamlined repertoire should continue to serve him well today against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has hit .237 against sliders from right-handers, above the .221 league average (through Saturday).
Daily Notes for Monday: Sox-versus-Sox series finishes up
Madison
By Adam Madison
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)
t
Josh Beckett and John Danks face off in the last game of a four-game series with playoff implications. Danks has been a pleasant surprise for the White Sox, with a sub-3.00 ERA for most of the season. But he allowed five home runs in July and had a 4.97 ERA. If Danks can make it through at least two innings on Monday, he surpasses his innings total from 2007, which is dangerous for a 23-year-old on a team in the midst of a playoff chase. As for Beckett, he has pitched better than his 4.08 ERA suggests, but an unlucky .314 batting average on balls in play has kept his numbers modest. Beckett, a fly-ball pitcher, should be one of the primary pitchers helped by Jason Bay's improved defense over Manny Ramirez in left field, which should help bring that BABIP down.
Injury report
Out
Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins (foot)
Carlos Lee, OF, Astros (finger)
Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (quadriceps)
Ryan Braun, 3B/OF, Brewers (back)
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets (hip)
Ken Griffey Jr., OF, White Sox (soreness)
Carlos Guillen, SS/1B/3B, Tigers (back)
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates (thumb)
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays (hamstring)
Jack Wilson, SS, Pirates (shoulder)
Tyler Yates, RP, Pirates (personal)
Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .283 in 46 at-bats, with eight walks to six strikeouts, since rejoining the team in July, but with just two doubles and zero home runs, the power has yet to return. Zimmerman has enough downside given the lack of lineup support he gets, so if the power doesn't return soon, it might be time to punt him.
John Danks has had a good run, but he has struggled recently and has a tough assignment on Monday.
Pitchers: We already mention Danks' recent struggles in the lead, and it's worth noting here that the Red Sox are the majors' best offensive team versus lefties (.826 team OPS). …
Fausto Carmona was wild in his previous start against the Rays, throwing just 41 of his 83 pitches for strikes and walking five batters. With four strikeouts in four innings and six groundballs to two fly balls, there's no need to get concerned for him long term. That said, the Orioles are hitting .294 as a team since the All-Star break, so keep Carmona reserved. …
Justin Verlander allowed 18 runs in his past 17 1/3 innings, but I wouldn't be too concerned. Verlander had an eight-start streak of allowing two earned runs or fewer before this rough stretch, and he has the excuse of having three starts against two division rivals, both of which already saw him this season. Verlander had 22 strikeouts during that stretch, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt against the Blue Jays. …
On Monday, Jonathan Sanchez tries to make it into the seventh inning for the first time in six starts. He faces the Astros, who just lost Carlos Lee for what looks like the season. The Astros replace Lee with a nonfactor (likely Darin Erstad), which makes what was already an appealing matchup a lot tastier. … The homer-prone Josh Beckett hasn't been a fan of the White Sox and U.S. Cellular Field, as he has allowed four souvenirs in 18 2/3 innings there in his career. The White Sox have hit the most home runs in the majors, and about 60 percent of those have been hit at home. …
Derek Lowe is sporting a career 3.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 61 career starts at Dodger Stadium, including a 2.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this season. A strong rebound from his disastrous start in St. Louis should be in order.
Waiver-wire pickups
Hitters: Kevin Millar has been on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .282 with six home runs in just 78 at-bats. He has a history of improved production in the second half, and he already has 18 home runs, his most since 2004. … Hitting .330 since July has helped Melvin Mora drive in 31 runs in 31 games during that span. It's a fairly empty batting average otherwise, but with his teammates hitting well and since he's in a prime spot in the lineup, Mora is a decent pickup. … Adam Lind, hitting .355 since the break, was moved to the cleanup spot on Saturday, and with Vernon Wells coming off the disabled list, he should see an increase in opportunities to drive in hitters.
Pitchers: Pedro Martinez is looking closer and closer to unusable, showing an inability to pitch deep into games and allowing a whopping 13 home runs in his 56 innings this season, including five his past two starts. The Pirates offer a great matchup for Martinez to rebound, but wait to see the Martinez of old first. …
Dave Bush has a 3.29 ERA his past 13 starts, but because he started off with a 6.62 ERA in his first eight starts, his season marks sits at just 4.50. As a result, he hasn't gotten proper respect in fantasy leagues. He has had a nice run of six outings with one run or less allowed during that stretch, and the lowly Nationals have a good shot at making it seven. …
Shaun Marcum is assuredly smiling with Vernon Wells expected to return to the lineup Monday. More run support should result with Wells replacing Brad Wilkerson, and importantly to Marcum, the defense should improve for a squad who already is tied for sixth in defensive efficiency. As for Monday's start against the Tigers, though, Marcum has been only decent in his career versus the Tigers, so don't risk him on the road.
Weather concerns
The Pirates and Mets have the most significant chance of rain, with a 40 to 50 percent chance of storms. The Orioles-Indians and Cardinals-Marlins both have a 30 percent chance of rain. … The Nationals-Brewers, Giants-Astros and Yankees-Twins are the weatherproof games of the day.
