Cuse, KY, ND, USC, FSU

Search

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2001
Messages
4,009
Tokens
I've been over the board enough now to settle in with the following picks - I'll wait for feedback before I pound them home but I'm pretty confident that most of them will do the job for me:

Cuse -1.5
This line is absolutely rediculous. The case can be made for a letdown, or that this will be important to Georgtown, or that someone somewhere is "due", but the facts are that syracuse has proven themselves against the basic competition - something that georgetown has yet to do.

FSU +10
I believe these teams are much more even than ten points and I'm actually shocked when looking through their common opponents and recent performance. I dont think FSU will win but I seriously think that whichever team wins it will not be by more than 2, 3, 4, 6 pts...

KY -3
Auburn isnt a terrible team and I give them credit for the LSU win. Kentucky is in a different league alltogether though and should win easily.
This will be their easiest road game since Indiana - where they won by like 40 pts...

Notre Dame +15.5
Fading Uconn is an art. There are times to stay away from them, and they are a more talented team this year than they have been in recent years, but they are the same team at heart, led by the same man, with the same philosophies and flaws that they've always had. They lack motivation, mental toughness, and mental focus. Notre Dame is just the opposite and should not have much trouble covering this huge number.

USC -1.5
These guys lost by 1 at Cal and have come a long way since confidence wise - proving to themselves that they can at least hang around in matchups where they arent even supposed to compete. I am going to watch the press close on this one because with all the hype of Stanford only 2 days ago I worry that they'll be tired and numb to the world. My hunch is the opposite, and I think that if anything all the hype will have motivated them to step it up even more. Anyway asking for a win at home against cal isnt asking a lot, IMO.



49wins-56losses on the season
(27 for 49 ATS)
(7 for 13 buying points (-170))
(8 for 19 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(5 for 11 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of -150, +150, +290, +180, and +122])
(2 for 8 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)
 

.......
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
14,511
Tokens
We don't agree on any today but you are going the way all the lines are moving which is a plus for you. The only one I would be real careful on is Kentucky. I think your analysis is off on Kentucky as they have played or lost a lot of close games in SEC Play. Auburn at home has done the following:

Georgia -won by 3
Miss St- lost by 5 (comparable to kentucky)
Arkansas-won by 7
South Carolina - lost by 2
Mississippi-won by 27
New Orleans-won by 15
Southern Miss-won by 18
Georgia St- lost by 5
Montana- won by 22
Air Force- won by 19
Colorado St.- won by 30
MD Eastern Shore- won by 24
Western Kentucky- won by 22
College of Charleston- won by 4

Avg margin of win at home- 17+ pts per win
Avg margin of defeat at home- 4 pts per loss

These numbers don't suggest a Kentucky blowout!

Kentucky on the road:

Marshall-won by 13 *
Michigan St.- won by 5*
Indiana-won by 39*
UCLA - won by 2
Miss St.- won by 1
Tennessee-won by 1
Notre Dame- won by 8
Vanderbilt- lost by 6
Florida- won by 3
Georgia- lost by 6

* denotes neutral

Avg margin win= 9 pts per win but taking out neutral courts= 3 pts
Avg margin loss= 6 pts per win
Avg margin win in Sec play= 1.6 pts per win

These numbers to me suggest Kentucky will be very lucky to cover this number let alone blow Auburn out. The value is with Auburn.
 

Banned
Joined
Nov 20, 2000
Messages
14,663
Tokens
i really like USC and FSU also... good luck!

you already know I like a couple of your other plays...
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 20, 2003
Messages
17,238
Tokens
Jaypaw,
we don't agree a lot, but I'm totally with you on the 'cuse. I've made a lot fading G'town all year. They are truly horrible.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2001
Messages
4,009
Tokens
whew


54wins-56losses on the season
(32 for 54 ATS)
(7 for 13 buying points (-170))
(8 for 19 on the 4 team 10 pt teasers [payout -120])
(5 for 11 - multiple team ML parlays and other teasers [winners of -150, +150, +290, +180, and +122])
(2 for 8 on the ML: wins of -260 and -235)
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2001
Messages
4,009
Tokens
Thanks dudes

anyone like wisky today?

I'm probably gonna lay off everything today and hunker down to study this weeks games.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,835
Messages
13,573,882
Members
100,876
Latest member
kiemt5385
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com