Current NBA Championship and Conference winner odds....Does anything stand out to you all?

[PatsFan1283]

-135 to -900 in 5 days, wish I bet it for more

Tough to fire too hard when Phi didn't really have much to play for in the last week and he can sit at any time. But obviously after last few years, Philly really wanted him to win it.

JJJ/Lopez for DPOY will be interesting. Bucks have best record, Giannis isn't winning MVP and their consensus 2nd best player barely played this year. Lopez is gonna play like 15 more games than JJJ as well. So maybe they toss a Bucks guy a bone for that. Logically, I'd want to bet him. But he's Brook fuckin Lopez, who really wants to give him the 2nd most important award.

Decided to take JJJ for a little at -155.....He has Lopez beat in most numbers, only thing for Lopez is that he has played 14 more games and his team has the best record. Just doesn't seem like he's gonna get the credit for the volume though, everyone basically knows he's the 3rd most important defensive player on the team and a candidate to have his minutes sharply reduced in the playoffs (thus their vote looking dumb)

He could win, but just seems like they give it to JJJ. 63 games at 28 minutes a game is so light though.

 

[MAGAking1]

Kind of an interesting look at the MVP battle based on blind stats......you can either try and play along or just skip ahead to the end

Total minutes (percentage of team's total minutes)​

• Player A: 2,254 (58.9%)
• Player B: 2,024 (53.0%)
• Player C: 2,296 (60.3%)

Points created (points + assist points created + screen assist points created)​

• Player A: 3,201
• Player B: 3,168
• Player C: 3,987

Counting statistics: PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK (per 100 possessions)​

• Player A: 72.1
• Player B: 74.6
• Player C: 70.1

Advanced statistics: average finish (PER, WS/48, BPM, RPM, WAR, EPM, DPM, VORP)​

• Player A: 2.13 (2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd)
• Player B: 6.88 (3rd, 9th, 5th, 14th, 8th, 7th, 3rd, 6th)
• Player C: 1.25 (1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st)

Scoring efficiency​

• Player A: 57.1 eFG%, 65.4 TS%
• Player B: 57.2 eFG%, 60.5 TS%
• Player C: 66.1 eFG%, 70.2 TS%

Shot creation: unassisted field goals made (% of total FGM)​

• Player A: 267 unassisted FGM (37.1%)
• Player B: 404 unassisted FGM (57.1%)
• Player C: 241 unassisted FGM (37.4%)

Rim protection (Synergy rank out of 216 players to defend 100+ FGA in restricted area)​

• Player A: 442 DFGA (4th), 63.8 DFG% (61st)
• Player B: 214 DFGA (58th), 55.6 DFG% (10th)
• Player C: 436 DFGA (5th), 70.0 DFG% (119th)

Pick-and-roll defense (Synergy rank out of 235 players to defend 200+ screens)​

• Player A: 2,134 screens defended (5th), 0.96 points per direct PNR possession (57th)
• Player B: 937 screens defended (43rd), 0.91 points per direct PNR possession (27th)
• Player C: 2,305 screens defended (4th), 1.01 points per direct PNR possession (120th)

Isolation defense (Synergy rank out of 181 players to defend 100+ isolations)​

• Player A: 132 isolations defended (113th), 0.83 points per direct ISO possession (8th)
• Player B: 116 isolations defended (142nd), 0.88 points per direct ISO possession (19th)
• Player C: 126 isolations defended (125th), 1.083 points per direct ISO possession (140th)

Team record when in the lineup (winning percentage)​

• Player A: 43-22 (.662)
• Player B: 47-16 (.746)
• Player C: 48-20 (.706)

Superlative teammates (current All-Stars, potential All-NBA and potential All-Defense)​

• Player A: 1
• Player B: 2
• Player C: 0

On/off differential (via Cleaning the Glass)​

• Player A: +12.3 (96th percentile)
• Player B: +7.5 (88th percentile)
• Player C: +26.5 (99th percentile)

On-court ratings​

• Player A: 119.0 offensive rating, 109.9 defensive rating (9.1 net rating)
• Player B: 116.4 offensive rating, 109.2 defensive rating (7.2 net rating)
• Player C: 124.3 offensive rating, 111.5 defensive rating (12.8 net rating)

Versus each other's teams (per game)​

• Player A: 31-11-6 (54.3 TS%); .500 team record (-1.39 net rating)
• Player B: 30-13-5 (59.7 TS%); .500 team record (0.71 net rating)
• Player C: 26-10-11 (65.3 TS%); 500 team record (10.9 net rating)

Versus .500+ teams (per game)​

• Player A: 33-11-4 (63.8 TS%); 23-14 team record
• Player B: 31-12-6 (59.9 TS%); 26-11 team record
• Player C: 25-13-10 (71.7 TS%); 24-11 team record

Clutch (per 100 possessions)

• Player A: 47-12-6 (63.7 TS%); 23-13 team record (31.0 net rating)
• Player B: 34-13-10 (48.0 TS%); 21-7 team record (-0.7 net rating)
• Player C: 40-14-11 (64.9 TS%); 20-9 team record (27.1 net rating)

If you paid close enough attention to the numbers, you have probably figured out who is who by now.

Player A has been incredibly clutch. He is the most active rim protector and a stalwart defender in space. He is a dominant force on both ends of the floor, although pretty clearly second-best statistically overall.

Player B fills the box score best among this trio. He creates more of his own scoring and is the best all-around defender, and his team is tops when he is in the lineup. He also is the least efficient scorer, owns the worst advanced statistics, has played the fewest minutes and gets the most help from his teammates. His production dips against winning teams and in the clutch, where he has been the least helpful of this group.

Player C is an offensive maestro. He has created the most points and done so most efficiently. His advanced statistics are undeniably the best of this bunch. He has also played the most minutes, received the least help from his teammates and been on the floor for the most wins. His production and efficiency translate against winning teams and in the clutch. He is the worst defender among the three candidates, but the 10 additional points he creates per game has yielded the highest net rating when he is on the court.

Strictly by the numbers, it is hardest to argue against Player C, who, if you have not guessed, is Jokić. (Embiid is Player A, and Antetokounmpo is Player B.) Everyone's eye test can tell a different story, as it did on Tuesday night and may well in the voting, too. Good luck to all with ballots. May you avoid any toxicity.

 

[PatsFan1283]

yeah if '22-23 existed in a vacuum then Jokic would win. But they ain't giving him 3 straight. No one has won 3 straight since Bird '84-86 and he had 2 rings and 3 finals appearances in that time and was clearly the face of the league. Jordan, Magic, LeBron, Giannis, Duncan, no one has won 3 straight.

Jokic is significantly worse on D than both of those guys but against most regular season teams that is easier to hide. Also, the way the game is now where most of the bums can snipe 3's, the guy who can constantly find guys for open 3's and create open 3's for his teammates has more value.

 

[MAGAking1]

Only drama in the east is will Miami catch NJ for the final guaranteed spot

 

[MAGAking1]

....and the drama is pretty minimal

Miami's road win in Philadelphia on Thursday may not mean anything in its pursuit of the No. 6 seed.

The Heat are one game back of the Nets. Brooklyn hosts the Orlando Magic on Friday and Philadelphia on Sunday.

The Nets should beat the Magic and then there is a chance the Sixers rest all of their starters to ensure Brooklyn is the No. 6 seed and their first-round opponent.

Philadelphia went 1-2 against the Heat in the regular season, and it can ensure the Heat stay in the No. 7 spot by losing to the Nets on Sunday.

Miami should use its final two games against the Washington Wizards and Orlando to fine-tune its rotation ahead of the play-in round.

Jimmy Butler and his teammates are not going to drop from the No. 7 spot, so they would need one win over the No. 8 seed to confirm a first-round matchup with the Boston Celtics.

 

[MAGAking1]

In the West......

1. Denver (52-28)

2. Memphis (50-30)

3. Sacramento (48-32)

4. Phoenix (45-35)

5. Los Angeles Clippers (42-38)

6. Golden State (42-38)

Play-In Race

7. Los Angeles Lakers (41-39)

8. New Orleans (41-39)

9. Minnesota (40-40)

10. Oklahoma City (39-42)

11. Dallas (38-42)

---

The Western Conference playoff math is simple.

The Clippers need to go 1-1 and the Warriors must win out to avoid the play-in round.

The Clippers can afford one loss in their final two games because they have a one-game lead over the Lakers and own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Golden State does not have that luxury, but it does have the advantage of playing the Sacramento Kings and Portland Trailblazers to close out the regular season. Sacramento has no reason to play its starters after securing the No. 3 seed. Portland has been playing reserves for the last week.

Winning on the road has been tough for the Warriors all season, but they should handle those two away assignments and become the last of the West playoff teams to earn 10 away wins.

The Lakers need to beat Phoenix and Utah to be the No. 7 seed at worst. The Suns come to Los Angeles after a game versus Denver on Thursday. They could be inclined to rest, or limit the minutes, of their star players.

Utah's postseason elimination should allow the Lakers to cruise to a victory on Sunday.

Sunday will be important in the play-in race when it comes to the Pelicans and Wolves, who square off in Minnesota.

New Orleans is expected to beat the shorthanded New York Knicks at home on Friday and Minnesota should cruise against the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. That will set up a winner-takes-all game for the No. 8 seed and a trip to Los Angeles.

The Pelicans and Wolves split their regular-season series, but the games happened in December and January, so they are not true indicators of what Sunday's game will look like.

New Orleans is 8-2 in its last 10 games, while Minnesota is 5-5 in the same stretch. Minnesota is only 21-19 at home. The Wolves are tied with the Lakers for the fewest amount of home wins among top 10 teams in the West. They lost to the Lakers and Portland during their latest home stand.

Oklahoma City just has to beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday to confirm it as the No. 10 seed and eliminate Dallas. Memphis is the No. 2 seed and it could rest its starters to focus on the postseason.

Dallas must beat Chicago and San Antonio and have OKC lose to Memphis to get into the postseason.

Prediction: 7. Los Angeles Lakers, 8. New Orleans, 9. Minnesota, 10. Oklahoma City

 

[MAGAking1]

This west is wild in that 5,6,7 spot

This article was written before Friday games but the standings Im posting reflect Friday games

Western Conference 5-9 seeds and remaining games​

5. Clippers (42-38): Saturday vs. Portland, Sunday at Phoenix


6. Warriors (42-38): Friday at Sacramento, Sunday at Portland


7. Lakers (41-39): Friday vs. Phoenix, Sunday vs. Utah


8. Pelicans (41-39): Friday vs. New York, Sunday at Minnesota


9. Timberwolves (40-40): Saturday at San Antonio, Sunday vs. New Orleans

​

In the event that Golden State finishes tied with any other Western Conference foes, here is the Warriors’ tiebreaker situation with each team:


Lakers: LA wins tiebreaker by winning three of four head-to-head games this season.


Clippers: Teams split four games this season. Clippers win tiebreaker based on division record (Clippers 8-7, Warriors 6-9).


Pelicans: Teams split season series. New Orleans wins tiebreaker based on conference record (Pelicans 29-22, Warriors 28-22, but results to reach a tie would move New Orleans ahead).


Timberwolves: Teams split season series. Minnesota wins tiebreaker based on conference record (Warriors 28-22, Timberwolves 27-23, but results to reach a tie would move Minnesota ahead).


And some possible three-way tiebreaker scenarios:


GSW-LAC-LAL: Clippers first, Lakers second, Warriors third – based on head-to-head record (Clippers 6-2, Lakers 3-5, Warriors 3-5, then goes to Lakers 3-1 vs. Warriors)


GSW-LAC-NO: Pelicans first, Warriors second, Clippers third – based on conference record (Pelicans 29-22, Warriors 28-22, Clippers 25-25)


GSW-LAL-NO: Lakers first, Pelicans second, Warriors third – based on head-to-head record (Lakers 6-2, Pelicans 3-5, Warriors 3-5) and conference record (Pelicans 29-22, Warriors 28-22)


GSW-MIN-NO: Timberwolves first, Warriors second, Pelicans third – based on head-to-head record (Timberwolves 4-3, Warriors 4-4, Pelicans 3-4)

 

[MAGAking1]

I have done the permutations multiple times and the most probable ending to me is

LAC 5
GS 6
LAL 7

Its a pretty fun exercise ....try it out and get yer noggin joggin

 

[MAGAking1]

Sunday still has playoff implications

 

[MAGAking1]

Saturday's win improved the Timberwolves' record to 41-40 on the season and moved them within a game of the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans for the seventh and eighth spot in the play-in tournament. If the Wolves beat the Pelicans on Sunday, they will move into the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup with a spot in the playoffs on the line and could host that game if the Lakers lose to the Utah Jazz.
If they lose, the Timberwolves would lock themselves into the No. 9 seed which not only means a date with the 10th-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder but means they would have to win two games to make the playoffs.


The Los Angeles Clippers clinched a top-six seed and an automatic playoff berth with their win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday afternoon, leaving the Timberwolves to battle for their spot in the play-in tournament.
Sunday's game with the Pelicans is scheduled for a 2:30 p.m. tip-off at Target Center.


https://www.si.com/fannation/bringm...n-injured-list-slugger-matt-wallner-called-up
https://www.si.com/fannation/bringm...he-timberwolves-finish-5th-6th-7th-8th-or-9th

 

[PatsFan1283]

Decided to take JJJ for a little at -155.....He has Lopez beat in most numbers, only thing for Lopez is that he has played 14 more games and his team has the best record. Just doesn't seem like he's gonna get the credit for the volume though, everyone basically knows he's the 3rd most important defensive player on the team and a candidate to have his minutes sharply reduced in the playoffs (thus their vote looking dumb)

He could win, but just seems like they give it to JJJ. 63 games at 28 minutes a game is so light though.

JJJ up to -300, probably wins

 

[Avocado33]

JJJ up to -300, probably wins

Lopez maybe worth a sheckel at this point

In any case good wagering

 

[MAGAking1]

No way to bet on Bucks to win East at barely above even money......

 

[MAGAking1]

I have done the permutations multiple times and the most probable ending to me is

LAC 5
GS 6
LAL 7

Its a pretty fun exercise ....try it out and get yer noggin joggin

Bingo

 

[Loves2kickass]

View attachment 64430




No way to bet on Bucks to win East at barely above even money......

Lol Phoenix is the West favorite. Won't happen.

 

[MAGAking1]

Here ya go @joebatters

Took my own advice and drafted this team....you have to be number 1 out of your first pod/group of 6 after the first round to advance.

That could be a problem for Bos and Milwaukee themed teams who could easily sweep or win in 5 games and not be able to acrue max points.......At least with this build I have top players who could see 6 and 7 games.

Plus I gave myself multiple combos to make a full team in the finals if Im lucky to make it that far.

GSW/Cle
Cle/LA
GSW/Philly


One thing you have to be aware of if drafting a Cle team is that their elite players are NOT listed as W's.....you can always get Levert at the end (he likely will not contribute to your actual score in the first round....he averages about 25 per game and Thompson is at 32) ....that is one weakness of team is that I only have Thompson as high scoring W so if he doesnt kill it Im gonna be short in that area.

 

[MAGAking1]

Lol Phoenix is the West favorite. Won't happen.

Why not?


Who you got to beat them?

 

[Avocado33]

Lol Phoenix is the West favorite. Won't happen.

It’s probably them or Warriors/Lakers

Top 3 are frauds

 

[Avocado33]

Clippers aren’t even good enough to be frauds

 

[Avocado33]

The Sixers are automatically eliminated because of James Harden being on their roster.

Decent value on both Bucks and Celtics from that lens. Hate to say it, but Cavs probably not much of a chance