Croakers Specials

[croaker]

Greeting Fellow Sports Investors

I will be betting on Nitrogen this season, it is a bitcoin only site.

My objective of posting is to keep me disciplined, which worked pretty well for me last season, I enjoy betting and my objective is to show a profit at the end of the season, I managed to win enough last season to get a new laptop.

This year my objective is to win enough to get a new phone.

I will post in units and each unit will be .01 BTC whatever that is is USD, atm is it $38USD.
[I bought some bitcoin earlier in the year and the price of it really rocketed, it was around $900 in March and now the price is around $4000.]

This season I will be looking for recency bias and media FUD to try and find value bets.

BOL

 

[croaker]

First official bet for the year.

Houston Texans 2 units +217

Texans have been getting plenty of hate since losing to the Jags last week. They were a playoff team last year and gave the Patriots a run for their money. Watson will be cool under pressure, he handled Alabama's pass rush 2 years in a row, he will be fine against the Bengals. Look for the Houston D to step it up, I will give them a Mulligan for last week's poor effort.

Not certain, but at the odds [over +200] I really like Texans, even away from home.

Bengals should improve from last week, but they can run hot or cold so just as likely to put in another stinker as to play a complete game, so I would like the Bengals at odds of -140 or better.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

I had never heard of Nitrogen before but now I'm intrigue by their adoption of bitcoin as their medium of exchange. This site has lacked a consistent measure of units that have been placed on game or event.

I'm happy someone has chosen to use the new innovative payment network and a new kind of money.. Having a decentralized digital money will open up greater opportunities to shop for the best line. When you place your bet you are subject to price fluctuations in the Bitcoin spot rate on the Bitcoin exchanges is driven by many factors; Making the timing of placing a bet much another factor in the ROI of your wager.

This will also give me a opportunity to evaluate the the different block chain standards as I am a investor in block chain technologies and have never been a owner of any cryptocurrency, and have so many questions about its adoption and the if its intrinsic value can be measured purely to the laws of supply and demand..

I'm sorry i am on the other side tonight tailing a Teaxas fan who thinks the onslaught of injuries will be to much for the Texans,

 

[indiana]

croaker...........BOL with your action tonight and this season.........indy

 

[croaker]

I had never heard of Nitrogen before but now I'm intrigue by their adoption of bitcoin as their medium of exchange. This site has lacked a consistent measure of units that have been placed on game or event.

I'm happy someone has chosen to use the new innovative payment network and a new kind of money.. Having a decentralized digital money will open up greater opportunities to shop for the best line. When you place your bet you are subject to price fluctuations in the Bitcoin spot rate on the Bitcoin exchanges is driven by many factors; Making the timing of placing a bet much another factor in the ROI of your wager.

This will also give me a opportunity to evaluate the the different block chain standards as I am a investor in block chain technologies and have never been a owner of any cryptocurrency, and have so many questions about its adoption and the if its intrinsic value can be measured purely to the laws of supply and demand..

I'm sorry i am on the other side tonight tailing a Teaxas fan who thinks the onslaught of injuries will be to much for the Texans,

Thanks for your comment, Queen of Hearts uses Nitrogen as well.

I agree blockchain is disruptive technology, secure, low cost financial transactions are only one of things it is useful for.

I'm not worried about fluctuations in the BTC spot rate but it is volatile.

I think Nitrogen is a good site, i think they get their lines from Pinny, and I think Nitrogen would be a good alternative to other offshore sites especially as anonymous. That is if people are able to get there head around the concept of Bitcoin,

I'm not sure how easy it is to buy bitcoin in the US but i think it may be good to have few just in case you need them.


Its really cool and completely anonymous, no KYC or ID details just sign up send some coin and you are in business. No BS.

I live in New Zealand and we have the local TAB for our online sports betting and the lines suck big time. I used to use Centrebet but you have to change currency etc and withdrawals are a pain. Nitrogen was just so easy to sign up and start betting.

About 1 minute to sign up, ie entering email address, and about 10 minutes to send the bitcoin over.

Unlucky to be on the Bengals, they will probably beat the Packers next week. Houston's defence basically won them the game.

Also I note, Jags are playing the vastly over rated Titans on Sunday and the Jags destroyed Houston last week, Bortles played fine and had 73 years in the first quarter. I expected the Jags to open as favorites. Houston won a playoff game last year, and are no gimme despite the FUD so may be worthwhile to have a look at Jags.

Both Houston and Jags have been pretty heavily bagged by all the talking heads on TV and on talk sport radio. They seem to know as much about football as Mrs Frog.

It's like the same stuff gets repeated over and over again that people start to believe all the BS.

Enough ranting....

 

[BLAK_MAMBA]

Good luck this season croaker, Jags are dogs so far +1.5

 

[croaker]

Off to a promising start with the Texans playing bad and the Bengals playing slightly worse.

1/0 +4.34 units

This Sunday

Jags 2 units - 104 [1.957 decimal]
Vikings 1 unit +220
Bears 1 unit +247


Jags I think are still a bit under rated even at close to even vs the Titans, good defense and adequate offence. Tom Coughlins tough love approach seems to be paying dividends.
Vikings played like champs last week, last year they started 5/0 so I expect them to kick on with a win, Steelers looked far from convincing last week against the Browns, should improve and are at home but at these odds Vikings look like value
Bears pushed the super bowl runners up pretty close last week, up against media darling Jameis and the Buccaneers, I'll wait until the Bucs show something on the field, also very good value here for a pretty even 2 horse race

I really like the Jags in this spot but am sticking to my plan and not loading up them.

I'll wait couple of weeks before betting the points.

Not the NFL

Also I really like Triple G today vs Alvarez, he is a much bigger man and its likely he was fudging a little in his last couple of matches to make sure Alvarez took the fight. Alvarez has put on weight for the fight and his new muscles will tire after round 6. Golovkin should walk straight through him in the later rounds.

I don't think it will be close but there should be good action in the early rounds.

 

[croaker]

All of the above are money line.

 

[croaker]

Well that sucked.

Weekend got off to poor start when Triple G was robbed of a win, I think they may have been both looking ahead to the rematch

 

[croaker]

Then woke up early [NZ time] to see not Sam Bradford playing QB for the Vikings and the Bears attempting to get the record for the number of turnovers in a game, and Jacksonville, well, just sucking. I thought I would hit at least one of these but they weren't even close.

Notes: Denver played pretty well.



So record now:

1/3 +0.34 units

 

[croaker]

Today

SF ML 2 units +131 [2.305]

Under 1 unit -102 [1.976]

If Hoyer can make a few plays 49ers have good chance, run game is solid. Goff still has to get his head straight.

Can't see a lot of points, 49ers held Seahawks to zero touchdowns.

 

[croaker]

Right

I will try posting a couple of picks again, there is adequate data from current season. So I am upping my investment

Record

1/5 -3.34 units


Rams v Giants

Rams -4.5 3 units

Rams off bye week, have their defense rocking
Giants challenged to score
So good offense and defense against OK defense and sub par offence
Don't think blow out but comfortable win
I cap this around -9 Rams neutral so just sneaks in as value bet at MetLife, would have preferred to get in earlier at better line


Packers v Lions

GB +2 3 units

Lions have won once out of last 25 tries at Lambo
Stafford not as good in the cold
GB off bye so have had extra time to prepare game plan for Hundley
Home field probably worth more than 3pts to GB
Monday night game so important for books to get line right to fleece joe public, public should pile in on Lions vs Rogerless GB team
I cap this at -2 Detroit neutral but homefield of around 4 gives me hope for GB


Bronco's vs Eagles

Denver + 7.5 3 units

All you hear everytime you switch on the radio is how great Wentz and the Eagles are [they are good]
Osweiller is significant upgrade over an injured Simian [not expecting him to be super good or anything], but he only played sub optimal last time at Bronco's, not horrendous, and sub optimal QB play got them the superbowl.
Broncos will get a lift with new QB
First time Wentz has faced Denver defense [Wentz is good but will still find it challenging like most QB's]
I cap this at -4 Eagles on neutral, but give Denver an extra couple for upgrade at QB
I don't expect Osweiller to blow maybe his last chance as starter

BOL

 

[croaker]

Prices

Rams -4.5 -102
Bronco's +705 -126
Packers +2 -110

 

[al_corona]

Have you checked the BTC price lately? Sitting at $7500

 

[croaker]

Have you checked the BTC price lately? Sitting at $7500

Yeah, i hope I don't lose.

Looks like mainstream players are getting into the sector banks like Goldman Sachs etc, and CME are looking to list a bitcoin future.

My be bumpy but looks like it could be in for good run up.

 

[croaker]

Oh well got off to a good start with Rams but pretty much sucked after that.

Record 2/7 - 6.35 units

Still confident I will end year in profit. I capped 8 games this week, but only bet 3 off them, but the ones I didn't bet all did well.

I think I may have over analyzed things a bit much. I was very curious to see how the Packers game played out after the line seemed generous in favor of the Lions.

Next week I will just bet the games I like and not try and cherry pick them. I think cherry picking a few games exposes you to greater variance [which is good if it is in your favor]. I will now bet more games with lower expectation but should have less volatile returns.


On to week 10.

 

[croaker]

PS I used to like Osweiller but looks like he has not just been unlucky and may just suck.

Hundley looked pretty good in spots in the game, he's not Watson, but he's not Savage or Osweiller either. He probably needs a better situation around him to succeed at this stage, but he should improve throughout the rest of the season. He had some nice touches on his throws so may not always be an auto fade.

 

[croaker]

Early bets for Week 11

Packers ML +111 3 units

Eagles -3 -121 3 units [bought the .5]

Waiting on Chargers line to come up to fade new QB playing on road against good pass rush

 

[croaker]

Added

LAC -6 +100 3 units

Fading the Bills new QB and team motivation, hard to see this game going well for the Bills

Cards +2.5 -106 3 units

Savage vs Gabbert must see NFL matchup....... Houston are on to 2018, while Arians must like his chances of this game helping to improve his 2018 job prospects. AP should be well rested and ready for another 30 or so carries.

Arizona still has a lot of winnable games on its schedule, and outside chance of making payoffs. If Houston had a better option than Savage at QB they would still be in the payoff hunt as well.

Arizona hung tough with the Seahawks on short rest, with a little help from the zebras. This one should be easier.

BOL

PS I was going to bet Bengals but they have a few too many players out, so I will pass.

 

[croaker]

One more thing, with some of the other games eg Giants, Jags. I can see the teams building early leads then shortening the game ie more running plays, to preserve team health. So greater chance of backdoor's for the bigger spreads.

May add ML parlay or teaser closer to kick off. So pretty sure about win, but uncertain about whether the teams will cover the spreads.