One of the problems with playing the over with anyone in that division is that it doesn't matter how bad any of the teams are - all of the division games are tough wins. Everyone in the division hates each other.
That said, I wouldn't go under either. If Pac Man Jones gets reinstated, it shores up two of the weakest links of the team, CB and return game. Unless the offensive line breaks down and forgets how to play, or has a bunch of injuries, which is possible, the offense should be about the same as last year. A veteran Julius Jones and a rookie Felix Jones are about the same. Will probably take Felix some time to adjust to pro game, but Julius was a mediocre RB.
Hard to say, but 11-5 is easily obtainable, but futures are tough - one or two injuries can make your play worthless by week 6 or 7.
HW