Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Pick 22: Qualif H2H Alexander Wurz vs Nico Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.350

I'm not a big fan of these low odds, but this should be an easy one,
Rosberg has dominated Wurz the entire year so far. 3 - 0 H2H in qualification sessions. I don't see wurz qualifying ahead here and I'm taking the 1.35 on this.

 

[Costanza]

Spain GP Bets
Pick 20: Race Finish in points Webber / Finish outside points = No Bet (1 Unit) @ 1.993
Pick 20: Race Finish in points Webber / Finish outside points = No Bet (1 Unit) @ 1.993
Pick 21: Qualif H2H Jenson Button vs Alexander Wurz (1 Unit) @ 1.850 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 22: Qualif H2H Alexander Wurz vs Nico Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.350 --> WON (+0.35 units)

Don't know what went wrong with Wurz, Button came out at the best possible time and was able to get inside to top 16 just in time to advance to the 2nd round. Wurz did not perform good and Rosberg over him was an easy winner.
Coultard qualified 9th and things are looking realy good for him to finish in the top 8, Webber had to have some technical problems because he didn't come out and even try to put up a time in the 1st round of the qualif session. Not looking good for him to get points, but as long as he finishes it's ok.

updated record:

Picks = 20
Won / No Bet / Lost = 12 / 1 / 7 (63% winners)
Units Bet = 17.2 units
Units Return = 21.468 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +4.268 Units
ROI = +25%

Race 04 Spain GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.65 Units (-32% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

I really like Massa to win & No Bet if Alonso wins @ 1.74 (Betfair)
but I haven't got the time right now to have a closer look into it.
From what I know, Massa has a very high % of races won when he started from the pole position
gonna hope the odds stay up and pull the trigger later tonight when I get back

 

[Costanza]

Pick 23: Race Leader after Lap 1 = Massa (1 Unit) @ 1.50

Massa is starting From Pole Position on the clean side of the track and should have no problem getting a clean start comming trough the 1st corner. The Barcelona circuit is a track that is known for a lack of overtaking opportunities and even an agressive Alonso will have a difficult time to overtake Massa. I would also not be surprised if massa carries less fuel then Alonso in the mclaren who dominated the entire weekend untill the qualif session. Massa has got a very good record when it comes down to drivers winning races where they started from Pole Position. Odds are too high on Massa to succeed to keep the lead after lap 1. If alonso would be able to overtake him in the 1st lap 1 out of 3 times it would result in even money. The % of times when the pole is able to keep the lead during the 1st lap should be conciderably higher then 66.6% of the time.
Odds available at Bwin (one of the better F1 bookies at the moment)

 

[Costanza]

I really like Massa to win & No Bet if Alonso wins @ 1.74 (Betfair)

should have taken this one, odds have dropped to 1.63 and the value is gone here. Sill looking over some things but can't seem to find any good bets at the moment.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 24: Race Finish in points Rosberg / Finish outside points = No Bet (1 Unit) @ 1.800

Rosbergs is starting from 11th position on the grid & on the clean side of the track without very strong opponents behind him. Him starting from 11th gives him the advantage to be able to chose the amount of fuel to be loaded up in the car before the race. On a track like Barcelona where overtaking is very difficult this fact can be a huge advantage. I expect him to fuel up and stay out longer then his opponents in front of him to gain some places. Odds on him to take a top 8 place are 2.8 (betfair) & odds on him to finish the race are 1.40 (bwin) In the 1st GP of the year where he started in 12th position, he was able to finish 7th.

 

[Costanza]

Spain GP Bets
Pick 19: Race Finish in points Coultard / Finish outside points = No Bet (1 Unit) @ 2.647 --> WON (+1.647 units)
Pick 20: Race Finish in points Webber / Finish outside points = No Bet (1 Unit) @ 1.993 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 21: Qualif H2H Jenson Button vs Alexander Wurz (1 Unit) @ 1.850 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 22: Qualif H2H Alexander Wurz vs Nico Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.350 --> WON (+0.35 units)
Pick 23: Race Leader after Lap 1 = Massa (1 Unit) @ 1.50 --> WON (+0.50 units)
Pick 24: Race Finish in points Rosberg / Finish outside points = No Bet (1 Unit) @ 1.800 --> WON (+0.80 units)

Great performance by David Coultard finishing 5th in this race, Rosberg also finished in the points with a 5th place. Massa was able to stay ahead after Alonso tried to overtake him in a way too optimistic way in the first corner. Webber had an unfortunate weekend with some technical problems and a ritirement in the race. Wurz should have easely been able to win it from button in the qualif session but suffered a lot of traffic during his laps. so 4 wins & 2 tough losses making it the 4th non-losing Grand Prix weekend in a row !

updated record:

Picks = 24
Won / No Bet / Lost = 15 / 1 / 8 (65,2% winners)
Units Bet = 21.2 units
Units Return = 27.415 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +6.215 Units
ROI = +29,3%

Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)


back again in 2 weeks for the always exciting Monaco Grand Prix !!

 

[themadactuarian]

Great performance by David Coultard finishing 5th in this race, Rosberg also finished in the points with a 5th place. Massa was able to stay ahead after Alonso tried to overtake him in a way too optimistic way in the first corner. Webber had an unfortunate weekend with some technical problems and a ritirement in the race. Wurz should have easely been able to win it from button in the qualif session but suffered a lot of traffic during his laps. so 4 wins & 2 tough losses making it the 4th non-losing Grand Prix weekend in a row !

updated record:

Picks = 24
Won / No Bet / Lost = 15 / 1 / 8 (65,2% winners)
Units Bet = 21.2 units
Units Return = 27.415 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +6.215 Units
ROI = +29,3%

Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)


back again in 2 weeks for the always exciting Monaco Grand Prix !!

Good stuff Costanza, keep it up!!!

I took Massa to win the GP. The odds makers were right on, as there was not much value in the line. What the hell is wrong with KIMI? He looks tentative.

MA

 

[Costanza]

Thanks MA !

From what I've heard, The problem with Kimi and the ferrari is that his driving style and the car don't match up very good.
Just saw the odds on Monaco are allready available, gonna have a look if there are some valuable early line errors out there.

can't wait for that race to start =)

 

[Costanza]

Monaco Grand Prix weekend 2007 is about to start, rain is expected (60% probability) during the race which makes me even more carefull betting this event.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 25: David Coultard to Finish the race (1 Unit) @ 1.800

Red Bull Racing came out quite strong last Grand Prix weekend with a 5th place for David Coultard. The team had a difficult practice session today with both drivers doing some damage to the car and webber having to change his gearbox. Still they managed to clock the 9th & 10th time in the session. Coultard is the most experianced driver on the grid, he allready managed to win twice at monaco and was able to finish 5 of the 7 last editions of the race. Monaco has a history of many retirements specially when there are rainy weather condition. But I still can't get around the odds for veteran coultard to finish this race in his Red Bull car that's still suffering with some technical issues. 1.80 Odds are available on Expekt

 

[MrCleo]

what do you think of Coultard to finish in top 8?

 

[Costanza]

what do you think of Coultard to finish in top 8?

I think the odds on him finishing in the top 8 (1.92 betfair) are not high enough compared to him just being classified in the race (1.80 expekt).

Strange thing that they are still offering 1.80 odds on him being classified in the race meaning the bet still wins if for as far as I know when he retires after 90% of the race is complete. Same bookmaker is offering 1.70 odd for him to finish in the top 8 :think2:

Obvious bookie mistake which offers good value to exploit I would say. And I would not at all be surprised if they came out strong again, he was able to get Red Bulls first Podium finish there last year afterall. Formula 1 remains a very technical sport where a lot of things can and will go wrong during the betting season. I also like some h2h bets involving Coultard, but I try not to place more then 1 bet involving the same driver or car to keep things safe.

I'm still looking over some bets at the moment, 5.3 on Massa to take the pole really looks overpriced. Bookies are being influenced too much on the not always that meaningfull results of the test sessions imo.

back with more later on

 

[Costanza]

The rain reports keep me away from making any more bets for now. Massa did never drive on a wet Monaco circuit which scares me away to go for him taking the pole.

 

[Costanza]

interesting note: Pinnacle are offering Race Matcups for this GP!
Every bookmaker is taking the odds offline during every practice/qualification session exept for them so it seems. Might be an excellent opportunity to find something reallyinteresting later on.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 26: Race H2H Albers vs Sutil (1 Unit) @ 1.820

I was leaning trouhghwards this bet yesterday, but after Sutil just clocked the fastest time in the latest practice session I got really convinced of this one. Normally I don't go that much by practice session results but the when the worst car of the entire field clocks the best time in semi-wet track conditions. It can't be ignored as a good indication. Sutil is a F1 rookie but has allready a experiance on Monaco. In the Formula 3, he was team mate of Lewis Hamilton and he did beat him there during Qualification and has actually the track Fastest time record ever behind his name in F3! So it's pretty obvious he's faster then Albers who hasn't really impressed that much this year. Sutil is a good driver who loves Monaco as a circuit and is known to be a very good driver in wet racing conditions. Avaiable at Pinnacle who didn't take their bets offline during last session.

 

[Costanza]

Forgot to mention that they estimate around a 80% chance of rain during the Race day tomorrow. Might have a H2H bet for the upcomming qualification session once the odds are out. Don't see much value anymore in Massa taking the pole with the chance that it will be on a wet track. If pinnacle keeps their race matchups online and something interesting comes up I will defenatly take it.

 

[Costanza]

small update on the bets:

Because of a misunderstanding, Coultard was given a penalty and will only start from 16th place. Does not change that much for the bet bacause he just has to finish the race. Still it's aways a little more safe to start in front to stay out of collisions and stuff. Odds did not change on this bet and are still overpriced imo.

Odds on Sutil dropped from 1.820 to 1.658 after the qualif. No doubt he's way better in monaco then his team mate and it should be an easy winner if he can stay out of trouble

not sure if I'll take on any more bets for tomorrow.

 

[Costanza]

Monaco GP Bets
Pick 25: David Coultard to Finish the race (1 Unit) @ 1.800 --> WON (+0.800 units)
Pick 26: Race H2H Albers vs Sutil (1 Unit) @ 1.820 --> LOST (- 1 unit)

No rain during the race in monaco today dispite the 80% predictions, Coultard was able to finish the race without any problems, but Sutil made a minor mistake forcing him to retire when he was ahead of his team mate.

updated record:

Picks = 26
Won / No Bet / Lost = 16 / 1 / 9 (64% winners)
Units Bet = 23.2 units
Units Return = 29.215 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +6.015 Units
ROI = +25,9%

Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

Back in 2 weeks for the Canada GP

 

[Costanza]

Canada Grand Prix 2007 is about to come up next weekend, Odds are available allready, so I'll do some home work to find the valuable bets.

back later